The Oil Drum | W: "It's Going to Be a Tough Summer" (and a late night open thread)

205 comments on W: "It's Going to Be a Tough Summer" (and a late night open thread)

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davebygolly on April 24, 2006 - 12:10am

Well, we have a Prez, VP, and Def Secy, none of whom can be removed, it seems, no matter what happens. The poll ratings are in the dumps, two wars have disastrously failed while they plan and threaten yet another much worse one. Now they warn the American public of a tough summer gasoline-wise. (I was going to make the usual snotty remark about the price of a fix going up -- but what is the poor slob who has to drive 40mi to his job going to do?) All this with the November elections coming up.

We are in the eye of a storm. A wrathful electorate, a military-industrial machine bent on war, political leaders who have committed outright crimes, and an election coming up that could prove to be a very adverse plebiscite. How can this play out? I mean this as a very serious question. What are the possible scenarios?

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ryvr on April 24, 2006 - 12:24am

There are going to be elections in America?? I thought we dispensed with those at the turn of the century.

The Republicans will "win" with 51% of the vote, and 70+% of Americans will scratch their heads wondering why their side didn't win. The landslide majority voting for John Kerry certainly experienced this in 2004.

Rigged elections won't change anything.

Perhaps they don't even need to rig in 2006. So many of the people I know who actually got out and voted in 2000, 2002, and 2004 don't see the point in driving to a voting station. We can write our votes on a piece of paper and burn it ourselves and save the gas money.

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Jack Greene on April 24, 2006 - 12:49am

This is silly.

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prole on April 24, 2006 - 12:56am

Not silly at all, see my post below.

The evidence is in - the Republicans stole the 2004 election.

Read Fooled Again by Mark Crispin Miller.

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fleam on April 24, 2006 - 2:12am

More like the Dems handed it to him, Kerry was and is an unstable nut - more so then Bush. Why didn't the Dems run Gore again? They'd have won with him IF he were against the war.

I'm getting sick of seeing the Dems say they're not happy with the way the war is being run because...... .they'd draft more working class kids (not their own kids!) and send 'em over there and kill more Iraquis. Why, Kerry'd have had us in Iran and Syria by now.

It never occurs to them that maybe no wars for oil and looking at an orderly powerdown and a flattening of the class structure might be the way to go.

Today I heard that the Dems are behind a movement to subsidize cheap gas in the US even more than it's already being paid for. Motor on! Drive your SUV down to that polling place and vote Dem! And since you're passing the army recruiting office on the way, better sign up your kid(s), we're gonna need them....

I am not at all happy with the neocon takeover of the Republican party but I think the Dems are dead as a political party.

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Don in Colorado on April 24, 2006 - 2:26am

To tell you the truth, I think the Republicans are dead, too.

Bush seems to rule by naked power, fear and lies. Maybe that's the only thing that will work any more.

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fleam on April 24, 2006 - 4:06am

Well that does lead up to where I was going, both parties are more the enemy than the friend of the common man. A new party that really takes off will be populist.

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Dragonfly41 on April 24, 2006 - 7:02am

Where's the American Chavez when you need him? [insert sarcasm...well...maybe not]

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Leanan on April 24, 2006 - 8:52am

Not that populism will help.

Here's the result of populism:

Specter: U.S. should consider windfall oil tax

Leading GOP Senator blames reduced competition for high oil, pump prices
Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said a windfall profits tax, along with measures to stem concentration of market power among a few select oil companies, could offer eventual relief to consumers hurting at the gas pump.
"I believe that we have allowed too many companies to get together to reduce competition," Specter said.
They get together, reduce the supply of oil, and that drives up prices," he said.

A Republican, calling for more taxes on big business. Amazing.

But it won't help...unless we use those taxes to prepare for peak oil.

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jkissing on April 24, 2006 - 1:33pm

Of course it helps,and in many ways. Direct taxes on oil companies reduce profits and therefore reduces their incentive to look for oil, thus driving prices higher. This in turn reduces consumption/gw. Meanwhile, higher taxes will (mostly) reduce the deficit, just as it did when Clinton raised taxes, which puts the us in better position to do something when po becomes widely accepted.

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Subkommander Dred on April 24, 2006 - 9:40am

Fleam;
A new party that is not only populist, but reveres constitutional rights as well as individual liberties. I've had this rather insane idea of late of running for congress as a 'guerilla' candidate, complete with three piece suit and ape mask. Considering the incumbent in my district (a true mountain of intellect Virgil Goode (R) Virginia's 5th congressional district) and the sorry assemblage of Democratic challengers, I fear the election shall be little more than a tag-team cage match between the traditional parties. As always with professional wrestling, 'The Fix is IN!'

Subkommander Dred

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prole on April 24, 2006 - 7:17am

Your comments do nothing to add to the dignity of a discussion on the sanctity of elections and the election process.

If the election process is easily compromised by electronic voting systems, then all is lost.

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Leanan on April 24, 2006 - 7:39am

I don't think Kerry's an unstable nut. He seems very stable and grounded to me, all things considered. Also very smart, and very decisive when push comes to shove. He has a talent for quickly and correctly analyzing a situation, and acting when everyone else is still trying to figure out what's going on.

But he's not the best public speaker, and his New England style is a bit off-putting to the rest of the country. He's not a very good candidate, I freely concede. I think he would be a very good president, though. He could be made to understand the problem we face in peak oil. (Simmons thinks Bush just didn't get it, and I'm inclined to agree. The man has simply lost too many brain cells to drugs and alcohol.)

Whether Kerry or anyone else could do anything about peak oil is a different question, of course. I suspect we need another Clinton - someone with far more political skill and charisma than Bush, Gore, or Kerry have. Someone who could win people over, and convince them of the need to make changes.

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Subkommander Dred on April 24, 2006 - 9:31am

Fleam:
As much as I hate to admit it, Brother Fleam is correct;
The Republicans are goons, and the Democrats are all on the take. As for me, I am taking my money out of politics, real estate and the stock market and have started betting heavily on junior high soccer.

Subkommander Dred

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Twilight on April 24, 2006 - 7:17am

Regardless of whether you believe there was widespread systematic election fraud, there are millions of us who do - and that alone ought to be enough to scare the heck out of everyone. This is not the forum to get into such theories, but I have plenty of evidence that goes way beyond "silly" to back it up. When combined with what I see as the utter failure of both political parties, I feel totally disenfranchised from the US political system - and I'm not alone in that either. How do you expect any effective solutions to any of the crises we face with a large part of the public feeling so marginalized?

When I worked for the DoD, we were told we had to avoid even the appearance if impropriety. It was good advice, and it's telling that our present electoral system isn't even bothering to try.

I have never missed voting in an election - it was important to me. I may vote this time too, but it is far from important to me now. Mostly I'll be just going through the motions because it costs me little to do so - I have no expectations that it will matter at all.

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Mad Maxout on April 24, 2006 - 8:04pm

I always vote, though it sure seems that the past two elections were as rigged as a Saddam Hussein election, just a little slicker. I vote just to get my 2 cents in on a political season of unintended comedy. On a more serious note, I sure can't blame you or others with being disgusted with the process.

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fallout on April 25, 2006 - 2:49pm

I still work at the DoD, and they still tell us to avoid the appearance of impropriety. Talk about hippocracy!

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mcgowanjm on April 24, 2006 - 10:47am

If voting could change things, it would be illegal

It's not who votes, it's who counts the votes.

As Prole so adequately lays it out what else besides
the end of the Age of Oil could make sense of the Utter
disregard of the American People's opinions.

James

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prole on April 24, 2006 - 12:52am

I worked as a voting clerk in Dallas, County Texas during the 2004 general election.

I witnessed several occasions where the ES&S touch screen voting machines flipped straight party Democratic votes to straight party Republican votes.

This occurred when frustrated senior citizens asked for assistance after the inexplicable changes.

All was brought to the attention of the Republican election judge who refused to impound the suspect machines.

One can learn more about the flawed voting machines and 2004 election at www.brdablog.com among other sites.

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ryvr on April 24, 2006 - 1:09am

You did mean http://www.bradblog.com/ right?
And thank you for relating your eyewitness to what was going on too. People want to write these off as small irregularities, but clearly we have documented how widespread it was that the "margin of victory" for Bush is ridiculously meaningless.

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prole on April 24, 2006 - 1:23am

Thank You For The Correction.

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Liam on April 24, 2006 - 5:26am

The evidence of US Republicans stealing votes in the '00, '02, & '04 elections is pretty extensive, and the systematic disinterest of your media and courts is positively chilling. The flatulent US Democrats was robbed, and the inability of most yanks to even consider the possibility is .. bracing.
How can so many hundreds if not thousands of documented witnesses be wrong? Because the nice christian men and their unexaminable black box machines said so.. please redeem brain for alliegance pin at participating grocers.

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Magnus Redin on April 24, 2006 - 6:10am

I read about claims for stealing elections and claims that both parties have essentially the same kind of people, financers and middle-of-the-road politics.

If the later is true why take the risk of stealing elections? And why manipulate it at all, honesty in the system is the insurance for making loosing an election a learning experience and not a disaster.

Both sides benefits from a large ammount of honesty in the system since that gives a stability one can depend upon for quite some time. Otherwise you end up in the dictators trap, unable to loose the grip on power and get a life in fear until old age catches the individual or organization. If you fuck it up enough neither your grandchildren or young friends will have reasonable future.

This thread is drifting from peak oil. :-(

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paradox on April 24, 2006 - 7:42am

Disclaimer: I am Canadian. Most Canadians live close to the States so we know a thing or two about the USA.

Anyway, the main thing to remember is that a company will give to both parties as it represents an hedge against the risk of choosing which will win. A company might have a prefered candidate, but why risk all the money on him?

The last decade has also seen great consolidation of the media. This dynamic changes the politics immensely, allowing near perfect suppression of opposing POV and endless repetition of truthiness and propaganda.

The most important element here, however is Bush's absolutely insane lust for power, with a complient public inane enough to think he will step aside in 2008.

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mcgowanjm on April 24, 2006 - 12:23pm

This thread is drifting from peak oil. :-(

But it's not. Stolen Elections would be one of the first signs of PeakOil.

Honest Elections would put actual reps in power
who would do the Common Sense things.

Such as Carter's Malaise Speech.

The Military /Industrial Complex was determined
to keep the Status quo (Redistribution of wealth to the
Top 1%) as long as possible.

Meaning gas guzzling cars/no passenger railroads
and debt/war to lubricate the machine.

James

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DIYer on April 24, 2006 - 9:41am

prole,

It probably didn't affect the outcome of the Texas vote in 2004. But if that happens in the 2006 election, it could matter.

What needs to happen is this: you or someone like you, and the disenfranchised voter, or someone like her, need to hire a lawyer and go downtown and start swearing out affadavits. You may not even need a lawyer. You know all the oaths you signed as an election worker? They are legally binding and taken very seriously.

Of course you and the voter will take a lot of flack from the Dallas County Clerk, but this sort of stuff needs immediate publicity. If possible, keep the election tied up in courts until it's settled. Get the Observer involved; call Laura Miller.

That said, I'm not sure what I'd do in a similar situation.

Note that if it's a deliberate programmed error, which we suspect it was, impounding the machine would accomplish nothing. The troubleshooter would run hardware selftests which would show it in working order.

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prole on April 24, 2006 - 10:03am

Hi DIYer,

I no longer live in Texas.

Nevertheless thanks for the suggestions.

At the time the ES&S machines failed, I represented the Martin Frost congressional campaign.

They decided not to pursue legal recourse at the time.

It all boils down to what the candidates want to do.

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phineas gage on April 24, 2006 - 10:27am

I think you underestimate the sway Republicans have over large segments of the population. Where do you live? If you lived in the midwest, anywhere rural or in the Bible belt you might be less suspicious. Maybe there really was fraud and not just computer glitches and flukes and maybe that won it for Bush but the democrat/ republican split right now in this country is awfully close to 50-50, that's why a little fraud could go a long way. There's no way that 20% of the vote was fraudulent. In my little city of 15,000 people, Bush signs outnumbered Kerry signs 3:2 and we're a city historically composed of lots of blue collar union democrats. Most people around here are also pro-gun and pro-life, mix that in with a lackluster democratic candiate and you tip the balance for our tiny block of votes for the Republicans.

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eric blair on April 24, 2006 - 11:26am

I think you underestimate the sway Republicans have over large segments of the population.

Merle Haggard has a new tune:
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0725-02.htm
A new Merle Haggard song that's critical of the media's coverage of the war in Iraq

The same Merle who was singing 'love it or leave it' about America.
http://www.cowboylyrics.com/lyrics/haggard-merle/fightin-side-of-me-496.html

And Demopublicans laying down with Republicrats
http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0406/042106nj1.htm
over how the budget is being done.

So.... where is "large segment", because from where I sit as a member of the 103rd fighting keybordists....that segment is shrinking.

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phineas gage on April 24, 2006 - 12:17pm

Here's your large segment, Bush won over 90% of the U.S. land mass:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/countymap.htm

I agree that this "large segment" is probably (and hopefully) shrinking but Fox News and Rush Limbaugh aren't exactly going out of busines. This large segment is found in rural counties, in mega-churches, the military, etc. Remember by square mileage, Bush won

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eric blair on April 24, 2006 - 12:59pm

Here's your large segment, Bush won over 90% of the U.S. land mass:

Land mass can't vote.
Bush was the loser. The majority of people eligable to vote opted to not select Mr. Bush.

Thanks for trying.

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phineas gage on April 24, 2006 - 9:52pm

I'm not saying Bush won the popular vote or even that he should be president, but to pretend that really only 30% of the population votes republican and the other 20% is fraudulent is ridiculous.

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eric blair on April 25, 2006 - 6:04am

ridiculous.

Glad you see that your claim was such.

The reality is that in the last election the overwelming majority did not opt to vote for the present person who claims the mantle of The Presidantacy of the United States.

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phineas gage on April 24, 2006 - 9:56pm

Also, is it really true that U.S. presidential elections really aren't based on land mass. Well not exactly, but it is based on ELECTORAL COLLEGE, which is to say land masses called states NOT BY POPULAR ELECTION.

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Donal on April 24, 2006 - 10:12pm

Oour population has so outgrown the number of electors that the electoral college should be unbalanced in favor of the less populous states. Neverheless, it is the large swing states that everyone campaigns for, not the little ones.

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earldaily on April 25, 2006 - 3:52am

I think that's the real point, ohio, and again florida were the swing states and also the most controversial in terms of rigging

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wkwillis on April 25, 2006 - 8:35am

You are not aware of this, but just as the electoral college favors low population states over high population states, it also favors urban areas over rural areas. Rural people in New York see their electoral college representation go to urban people because of this.
For instance, the Republicans can't win an election without stealing Florida, and Florida hasn't voted Republican (whatever the Supreme Court says) since 1988. The numbers simply aren't there. The first time they lose the governorship in Florida they lose their ability to steal an election and it's all over. Permanent Democratic presidential victories forever.
But the Republicans still have Senate overrepresentation, and parity in the House.

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earldaily on April 24, 2006 - 2:24pm

New Merle Haggard Tune Blasts US Media Coverage of Iraq War

wow! merle's a peaker? this is getting stranger by the minute

I don't even know the Dixie chicks, but I find it an insult for all the men and women who fought and died in past wars when almost the majority of America jumped down their throats for voicing an opinion. It was like a verbal witch-hunt and lynching. Whether I agree with their comments or not has no bearing.... As a country we need to look inward for the answers to the energy of the future. We need to bring down our demands for oil, rebuild some bridges and highways and allow the farmers to grow something that replenishes the soil. Those who don't know what that is, should do some research. The problem is not in Iraq and the answers are not in Iran. I hope were not buried alive beneath this pending financial collapse if the pipeline doesn't get through. Surely everything doesn't depend on oil!

Merle Haggard
June 2003

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Jack Greene on April 24, 2006 - 12:47am

davebygolly,

You are listening too well to your own propaganda.

The Afghan war has gone very well indeed and if it was the ONLY war we had on our hands it would be very easy.

Put the smoke down and listen to reality a bit.

The NYT had a very good graph on Friday that pointed out that the Bush voters travel 10-miles to their job on average, while the Kerry voters travel 6. No need to exaggerate.

TOD is reality based, not fantasy based.

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ryvr on April 24, 2006 - 1:17am

I'm curious what you think the exaggeration was... even if those averages are correct, it seems to me not unreasonable to consider the clearly significant number of people who commute 40 mi or more.

And Afghan war is going well? Certainly it's been nice for Osama who has just released a new recording from his comfy home there. Not that I miss the Taliban, but now it is just U.S. controlled territory harboring the perpetrator of that most aggregious attack against our citizens in 2001.

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Leanan on April 24, 2006 - 1:43am

U.S. controlled territory? The only part of Afghanistan that's U.S.-controlled is the city of Kandahar.

And how can you miss the Taliban when they're not even gone?

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ryvr on April 24, 2006 - 1:57am

Good points. So I guess consensus is that war is not going well. Can I pick the smoke back up and stop listening to reality now? :-)

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SqueakyRat on April 24, 2006 - 9:21pm

Kabul would be better fit than Kandahar.

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Alaskan Pete on April 24, 2006 - 1:19am

Exactly what has gone so well about it that couldn't have been achieved by simply bombing the AQ training camps and/or taliban? Opium warlords now control the country outside the immediate confines of Kabul. We turn our head because without the drug trade, there goes 50% of their economy and the civil strife would be a nightmare. We allied with the north, who were simply another faction fighting for control of the drug trade. You get a terrorist sposoring theocracy, or a narco-puppet government. Six one half dozen other.

The poppy crop after we ousted the govt hit record levels after being way down the prior year. The CIA has a proven history in drug running. Mena, Arkansas might ring a bell to you. Russian mafia and/or govt interest also have proven connections to the heroin trade. Convenient, since it's being made practically next door.

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wkwillis on April 24, 2006 - 6:09am

Masood was the only guy left fighting the Taliban back in 2000 so (despite him being the major source of poppies in the world) Bush Jr. backed him after the 2000 election and sent in CIA to destabilize the Taliban.
So they hired Al Queda to take out the WTC, the Pentagon, and the Capital in a preemptive strike on us, and Masood himself the day before.
Preemptive war rarely works out for the preemptive side as evidenced by the fact that we killed a lot of Taliban in the next four years. They achieved nothing by their alliance with Al Queda. Even all that extra money from the oil price hike only made the Arab Sheikhs and the Iranian Mullahs rich, which didn't help either Al Queda or the Taliban.

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earldaily on April 24, 2006 - 1:30am

reading your post made me wish...well it made me angry.
until here "TOD is reality based, not fantasy based."
Then I remembered; there are well over six billion realities on this planet and mine isn't even in the same city as yours. that said thanks for contributing to TOD, as diversity will lead us down the shortest path (maybe)

one more time
http://decider.cf.huffingtonpost.com/

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ryvr on April 24, 2006 - 2:18am

Oh that link is sooooo good. Thanks for it!

6 billion realities is good. Let's all do good things so that we can keep as many realities as possible. Doomer I may be, but I have to believe we can keep a lot of realities alive and happy if we work together on the right things rather than consumption, competition, profit, and war.

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