<Friday Open Thread The Oil Drum HO v. Econbrowser: Title Fight...Round 20! (and another open thread)>

59 comments on Do Oil Reserves Tell Us Anything?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

JCK on April 27, 2006 - 2:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
But what about the datalines BEFORE all the lying began in the mid-80s?

Unfortunately, it doesn't appear to be that simple and that the pre 1980s data isn't reliable either.  See JD's post regarding Ghawar:

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2006/02/239-ghawar-now-empty.html

If you take the numbers from the 1970s as gospel, then Ghawar is already empty.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
PhilRelig on April 27, 2006 - 2:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Wow, does that mean we are really totally clueless about Iran, Iraq, SA, etc.?  What about Westexas' beloved Hubbert linearizations?  As I recall, this technique seemed to provide somewhat reliable data with regard to Kuwait.  Does it lend itself well to any other of the lying OPEC producers?
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Stuart Staniford on April 27, 2006 - 3:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think the rough picture is that we are fairly clueless what is really going on with OPEC.  I don't completely agree with JD's math, because it's likely Ghawar's production was partially shut-in during parts of the eighties and nineties.  But nor do I have tremendous confidence in the Hubbert linearizations for those countries because the linear regimes are small and the production was far from unconstrained during a lot of the linear regime.  The linearization may be roughly indicative, but it's very hard to stand on it with cast-iron confidence.  When you do stability analyses on them, the answer you get is very sensitive to your choice of beginning and end years.

I think the production numbers have to be more solid than the reserve numbers because the missing barrels number (oil that can't be accounted for when you subtract the known consumption from the known production and take into account known stock changes) is not usually more than a couple of percent of global production - ie comparable to the discrepancies between the different production series (EIA, IEA, etc.  So whatever lies are being told about production numbers, they can't sum to more than a percent or two of the total.

So I think the only facts about OPEC that I have a lot of confidence is that for the last 12 months or so:


  • rig counts are rising
  • production is not increasing

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Todd on April 27, 2006 - 10:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I didn't post any comments on the TOD editorial thread.  However, regardless of its value, your comments above mention "fairly clueless" about OPEC.  This kind of thing opens the floodgates for attack.

Were I writing an op-ed editorial I'd say, "Well, the editors at TOD have done it again.  They say the sky is falling yet one of their main spokespersons said the following day, and quote, 'They are clueless about OPEC.'  If they are 'clueless' about this what else are they clueless about...."

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Stuart Staniford on April 28, 2006 - 12:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The "we" referred to "all the world except insiders at the relevant national oil companies and governments."
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Stuart Staniford on April 28, 2006 - 12:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The MSM typically takes the OPEC claims at face value.  We've at least moved beyond that to the point where we recognize that data is worthless and that the situation is unclear.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Todd on April 28, 2006 - 12:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Stuart,

I don't want to belabor this.  I knew what your point was.  However, I believe it instructive how "quotes" can be used to support a position antagonistic to the position of TOD. It is this sort of thing that undercuts rational discourse.

Someone like Mike Lynch would (probably) have no problem writing a good piece obfuscating reality and attacking TOD based upon your words.  It is truly unfortunate the world has come to this but, IMO, that's the way it is.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
SqueakyRat on April 28, 2006 - 1:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Another thing that undermines rational discourse is people refusing to admit what they know and what they don't know.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on April 30, 2006 - 7:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Squeaky is right on the money.

Todd is way off.

Stuart is correct in his analysis.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
PhilRelig on April 27, 2006 - 3:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Plus, wasn't the 1975 figure of 60 GB in reserves for Ghawar based on the excessively conservative P-90 SEC reporting rules-type estimates by US majors, rather than the P-50 estimate that is more reasonable for the kinds of purposes pursued by Stuart?  And as such, isn't JD debunking Simmons based on a red herring in the link you reference?
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
peakearl on April 27, 2006 - 3:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
When I see Simmons' slide, I see him raising questions about the durability of Ghawar production. I don't think he's claiming that its URR is exactly 60, but I do think he's making the point that it is far from infinite, which is what some seem to have believed until Simmons started challenging common lore about KSA oil. I think he should make this clearer in his presentation, because JD makes a good point. However, what is the point? How much does JD think is really there? Even if there was 90 GB we have a problem. The big problem, as noted by everyone here, is no transparency, no way to validate the numbers whatever they are. I also think there's lots of reason to believe that Ghawar has actually peaked, which is the only important point here.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
JD on April 28, 2006 - 2:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
However, what is the point? How much does JD think is really there?

How would I know? I don't even really care. The basis of my optimism isn't that there's lots of oil left, although there probably is. The basis of my optimism is that we, humanity, don't need oil.

I also think there's lots of reason to believe that Ghawar has actually peaked, which is the only important point here.

I strongly disagree. You're basically saying "There's lots of reasons to think the poppy fields may be in trouble, which is the only important point here."

The status of the poppy fields may SEEM to be the only important point to the heroin addict, but it's not actually. The only important point is the fact that the person is addicted to heroin. That's the real root of the problem. The poppy fields are just a red herring -- a focus of junky denial which ignores the real problem.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
peakearl on April 28, 2006 - 1:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Fascinating response! I'm interested in your views about being addicted to oil and that we don't need it.

When I said "the only important point," I didn't mean overall, just in terms of the specific discussion of Ghawar reserves. I didn't think the number of 60 vs 90 vs whatever was that important if the field's production was peaking (which I know is under debate - I've just expressed my intepretation of the data I have seen). Its production is what matters, not the number. Certainly it's not the most important issue in the issue of oil dependence.

BTW, I have to agree that circumstances have prevented validation or refutation of the USGS projections. I disagree that their analysis has been substantiated, but agree that we don't know how right or wrong they are about Iraq, Greenland, etc. I do know that as long as the oil remains undiscovered for whatever reason that it won't help against the peak oil concerns.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

59 comments on Do Oil Reserves Tell Us Anything?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version