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160 comments on Iran again

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Stuart Staniford on April 3, 2006 - 8:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I found some interesting background on the Shkval.  Also, more evidence that the Iranian missile has Russian roots at DefenseTech.org, and other background at Airborne Combat Engineer.  Video footage of the Hout from Iranian TV at IranFocus
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Jack Greene on April 3, 2006 - 9:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The Hoot and this technology is hard to maneuver or change course.

Also, what they fired and showed film of left an obvious wake which would be a drawback. But like any new weapon, if you have it in penny-packets it does not help much. You need lots of them.

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mkc on April 4, 2006 - 12:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Seems like if they could use them to sink a few tankers in strategic locations (or even anywhere), that would still be notable.
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Jack Greene on April 4, 2006 - 12:54am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
One tanker hit will put oil through the Persian Sea back 3-6 weeks.

The BIG point here is:  What would the American reaction be to the hit, let alone sinking, of the CVN Ronald Reagan (currently deployed out there) have on the psyche of America (especially red state America)?

For starts, invest in naval construction firms.

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jokuhl on April 4, 2006 - 9:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
A penny or a pound(ing):

No, you (if you're Iran) don't get more than 3 shots, unless they're all going out in the same attack.  It's a good war-starter, but there's the bottleneck of defending the delivery vehicles, as well as your entire military/naval structure.  If we 'had to' take on Iran, tying them up would hang on air power.

Washington would LOVE to see them use one of those, on ANYBODY.  As soon as they throw a punch, GWB has his war.  Til then, Rice and Straw can taunt and tease, and maybe find new ways to trick out an attack..  

"As darkness settled over Europe on the evening of August 31, 1939, and a million and a half German troops began moving forward toward their final positions on the Polish border for the jump-off at dawn, all that remained for Hitler to do was to perpretrate some propaganda trickery to prepare the German people for the shock of aggressive war.

"The people were in need of the treatment which Hitler, abetted by Goebbels and Himmler, had become so expert in applying.  I had been about in the streets of Berlin, talking with the ordinary people, and that morning noted in my diary: "Everybody against the war.  People talking openly.  How can a country go into a major war with a population so dead against it?"  Despite all my experience in the Third Reich I asked such a naive question!  Hitler knew the answer very well.  Had he not the week before on his Bavarian mountaintop promised the generals that he would "give a propagandist reason for starting the war" and admonished them not to "mind whether it was plausible or not"?  "The victor," he had told them, "will not be asked afterward whether he told the truth or not.  In starting a waging a war it is not right that matters, but victory.

  -W'm Shirer,  Rise and Fall of the 3rd Reich  (p593)

..and on 9/1/39, with German SS dressed up as Polish Soldiers, and concentration camp prisoners as the 'Casualties',  Hitler feigned the "Attack on a German Radio Station at Gleiwitz", amongst others, which precipitated the action he had 'Taken every diplomatic tack to avoid'.. (Operation 'Canned Goods')

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BOP on April 5, 2006 - 2:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The YJ-83 is believed to be a derivative of the C-801 anti-ship cruise missile but can travel at supersonic speeds, making it very difficult for ships to stop.

This is a Chinese variant on the Exocet. It is believed that this missile is in Iran's inventory. If true then the Arabian Gulf is an Iranian lake.

The "SQUALL" mentioned by Stuart has a range of 7.5 miles. The Straits of Hormuz are 21 miles wide at the narrowest point.

Both the Exocet and the C-801 are sea skimming missiles and are deadly. The Exocet is relatively slow. It can be defeated by shipboard computer controlled guns which fire depleted uranium slugs to bring down the missile. These guns require about 120 seconds to acquire the target and set up for a firing solution. The Exocet is slow enough that it can be defeated by such gunfire.

The C-801 has a range of 75 to 150 miles (the greater distance has not been confirmed). The claimed speeds are in the order of 28 miles a minute. The missile skims just above the sea surface and its radar signature is lost in the surface clutter. The defensive systems do not have any time to react before the missile makes impact.

During the first Gulf war the coalition air force never once was able to locate and destroy an Iraqi SCUD on the ground. The SCUD and its launch vehicle are the size of a large fire truck. The C-801 is less than a quarter of this size and therefore much more easily hidden. To add to the problem, the west coast of Iran is rocky and cut with inlets and gullys; it is perfect terrain in which to hide this type of missile.

Given the capabilities of this weapon, Iran has the ability to dominate the entire gulf, not just the straits. During the Iran/Iraq war Kuwaiti tankers were reflagged as US vessels to enable USN convoys to be run. Convoy is no longer a viable response.

Given the other weapons Iran has recently demonstrated, I suspect they have been preparing for a confrontation with the US ever since the US supplied WMD precursor chemicals and other assistance to Saddham. My hunch is that George II is full of bluff and bluster. He is not trying to intimidate the Iranians; he seeks to intimidate the US electorate prior to the mid-terms.


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160 comments on Iran again

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