The Oil Drum | Weekend Open Thread (and a link to HO v. Econbrowser)

53 comments on Weekend Open Thread (and a link to HO v. Econbrowser)

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totoneila on April 30, 2006 - 3:27am

Hello TODers,

I am curious about 'transport inelasticity', for lack of a better word. What gasoline price point predictions can we make to determine when car-pooling kicks in to half the road vehicles vs the predominance of single occupancy commuters? Or will we never reach this level of vehicle occupancy saturation, but instead see a huge growth in motorcycles and scooters so that people can retain maximum personal travel-freedom?

Is it possible that people will keep their big auto or SUV for bad weather days, but primarily use a motorcycle or scooter the rest of the year? This is much cheaper than buying a new compact car, especially if the former vehicle is already paid off.

Any ideas on if people will vastly prefer buses to motorcycles? It seems to me that the lower the suburban density, the greater the preference for personalized transport because the buses are too far apart and the routes too few. Can buses ever approach the cost and energy efficiency of a small scooter? For example, a street-legal Honda Ruckus weighs 180 lbs, has a 49cc engine, a 1.3 gallon gastank, and probably gets over 125 mile/gal for $2 grand brand-new. Can a fully packed bus or light-rail system even come close to achieving this scheduling freedom, minimal cost, and outstanding fuel mileage/passenger?

Obviously, if the commuting distance is short: bicycling or walking is by far the cheapest.

When one considers the total cost and upkeep of high school buses plus the cost of all the older students personal vehicles-- would it be cheaper to subsidize scooters to the students and faculty instead of running busses and wasting all that school real estate to parking lots?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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odograph on April 30, 2006 - 4:30am

i think i'm seeing more scooters, but who knows how widely they'll spread. above $10/gal we might start to look like italy in the 50's

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totoneila on April 30, 2006 - 5:18am

Hello Odograph,

I am definitely seeing more people commuting on scooters and motorcycles in Phx, but we have mostly non-raining riding weather nearly year round. I found an informative link from last Aug. that highlights this growing trend:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9041933/

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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AlanfromBigEasy on April 30, 2006 - 8:16am

Some time ago I looked at motorcycle use pre 1973 to 1982. Miles traveled by motorcycle tripled then.

School buses are the safest means of transportation and they are not terribly energy inefficient so I do not see them as going away. Perhaps less air conditioning, and other fuel savings.

BTW: Perley Thomas, the man who designed your streetcars in New Orleans (built 1923 & 1924) also built the first safe school buses. Thomas Bus is now part of Daimler Chrysler.

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toonsmith on April 30, 2006 - 12:48pm

Funny you mention scooters. I sold m,y Jeep Grand Cherokee 6 months ago, bought a scooter, Piaggio BV500, and now use the scooter and public transportation to get around. My plates say PK OIL. I get a lot of folks asking what my plates mean and Iive them the Peak Oil run down.

I get 65 MPG highway and 55 city. I felt that I was a hypocrite for driving the Jeep while I preached the Peak Oil gospel. It helps to live in an urban environment, DC, but my scooter is a 500 cc bike and it can gi 100 MPH. So it is fine on the highway if you have the nerve to do so. It does get scary when a Tahoe blows past you doing 95 so I try to stick to back roads.
I am looking at other ways to reduce my carbon footprint and I think we Americans need to get off our lazy butts and change the ay we interact with each other an the world so everyone has some shot at normalcy as we transition into a world of increasing oil scarcity.

Tony

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toonsmith on April 30, 2006 - 12:50pm

Tony

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AlanfromBigEasy on April 30, 2006 - 9:16am

Can fully packed Light Rail match 125 mpg/pax ?

Yes, easily. And using potentially renewable electricity.

And this is without trying to reduce weight (remember that today's LRVs were designed in the age of cheap electricity).

Substantial use of titanium in LRVs would be a good application of this metal for example. Or the new Aluminum-Lithium alloys.

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Leanan on April 30, 2006 - 9:55am

Some schools have gone to four-day weeks to save energy.

What I find interesting is that when discussing this, non-Americans are often aghast that we would do such a thing. Education is the last thing they'd cut. They can't believe we'd reduce school hours rather than raise taxes or cut sports.

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