I think what will be the key postPeak determinant in export amounts is how self-reliant or self-sustaining each country is in a purely biosolar domain.  Don't have the facts at hand, but it seems Venezuela's natural habitat should be able to water & feed its population with very little oil, versus Saudi Arabia's massive requirements to desalinate drinking water and import food.

If Chavez is smart, he should be encouraging voluntary birth control and Powerdown in Venezuela; to maximize biosolar sustainability, then they can sit on their reserves to use internally far into the future, or dribble out for export later at a vastly higher price.

Saudi Arabia, which has a very low quotient of natural bio-sustainability due to rapid and continuing pop. Overshoot and the parched desert climate, is therefore forced to export energy to import ever-increasing amounts of food and desalinization equipment in a fruitless effort to avert eventual political revolt when depleting exports cannot match basic lifeneed requirements.

Each countries' individual depletion rate colliding with its population's minimal sustanence needs determines when TSHTF.

This is the basic formula that Jay Hanson and Jim Kunstler use in warning us how the American Southwest will basically be ghost towns in the future.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?