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196 comments on Friday Open Thread: Hemenway's "Apocalypse, Not"
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196 comments on Friday Open Thread: Hemenway's "Apocalypse, Not"
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Another major flaw in logic in the article IMHO.
In 1965, world oil production was 12 billion barrels. It may peak soon at 30 billion. Estimates project that in 2040, production will have slipped to 12 billion barrels--back to 1965 levels. To descend to that point would require a drop in consumption of 2.2% per year for 35 years. Can we do this? I think so. From 1973 to 1975, and again from 1979 to 1983, consumption fell by roughly this much per year. When prices fell, consumption rose again. For a glimpse of the future, note that when gasoline prices briefly spiked 30% due to Hurricane Katrina, US usage dropped 6% over two weeks. Saving 2.2% each year is well within reach.
The math is not this simple. There were a lot less people in the world in 1965 than today. We have already made large gains in efficiency. To decrease oil usage at the same time as maintaining or increasing population is going to require a lot more savings than 2.2% per year because most of that usage is not distributed equally among the worlds population. This is assuming a fixed rate decline on the backside of peak, which I question as well.
Try running a world of 6.5-9 Billion people on 12 billion barrels per year, the same as many fewer Billion people in 1965 and see how successful you are. Something has to give quickly, either population declines or we get super efficient very quickly.
The problem with banking on efficiency is that you get most of your gains early in the process. Doubling the fuel economy of a 50mpg car doesn't save you near as much gas as doubling a 25 mpg car. Same increase in efficiency big difference in consumption gain.
Your point about efficiency is spot-on as well. The classic example is Southwest's ordering its pilots to save fuel by running only one engine when the plane is taxiing. Easy way to save fuel. But then what? You can't cut back to no engines.
Actually you could if you were referring to the main engines. Just utilize a tug which admittedly currently run on fossil fuels. There would be safety issues as more wheeled vehicles would be on runways and taxiways, but it is possible and almost undoubtedly would save some fuel.
It would still be necessary to allow the main engines to reach an optimal thermal state amd be run up prior to take off.
BTW, IIRC Southwest used to run their auxilliary power units almost continuously rather than plugging in to ground power. The theory was that this enabled faster turn around. This may no longer be the case.
To quibble a bit further still, you could use an electric tug to get the plane to the runway, then use a tow-cable to help pull the plane up to speed. There probably hundreds of ways to play this game, and I'm sure we'll end up playing most of them.
These themes have been discussed elsehwhere, so I don't quite understand.