<Saturday Open Thread The Oil Drum Iran -- Apocalypse Now?>

176 comments on Sunday Open Thread

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

westexas on April 9, 2006 - 9:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Back to the Titanic/Iceberg Analogy

In James Cameron's movie, do you recall when the music tempo picked up, as the water crashed through the windows to the bridge, and the ship started going down much faster?

I think that we have hit the iceberg, but the water hasn't yet started crashing through the windows to the bridge.

Some people are heading toward lifeboats as fast as possible.

Others are debating whether the ship will actually sink or not.  A few experts say that the ship most assuredly will sink, because it is a question of basic physics.  In most cases, the experts are disregarded

The first lifeboats leaving the ship are only partially full.  As it gradually becomes more apparent that the ship really is sinking, a mad rush for the remaining lifeboats begins.  As we all know, there weren't enough lifeboats for everyone on board.

My continuing advice:  try to reduce your spending to 50% of less of your current income; try to reduce the distance between home and work to as close to zero as possible; look into becoming a net food or net energy producer, or look into working in these industries, or look into providing basic needs, not wants.  Do not go into debt to provide a college education for your kid in a "soft" major.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
mcgowanjm on April 9, 2006 - 11:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
xnext=rx[1-x], which works well so long as the variable r (rate of population growth) has a relatively low value. Above a certain value r the formula refuses to arrive at an equilibrium. x = population r = rate of growth xnext = next years population

No extra energy is entering the system. Per Capita Energy Production has been dropping since Reagan's Era.

In a system defined by nonlinear equations, the act of playing the game has a way of changing the rules, much as in the parable about the nail and the kingdom.

It will get worse.

At some point in the Titanic parable, a bifurcation occurs
whereby the passengers go from scoffing at those in the lifeboats to the perturbation of swamping them.

James

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
JMG on April 9, 2006 - 11:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Do not go into debt to provide a college education for your kid in a "soft" major.

But even some of the "hard" majors are looking a bit dicey. Computer scientist jobs are being outsourced to India where that expertise is growing rapidly. High energy physics is moving to Europe or even Asia as that is where the cutting edge research machines are being constructed, those remaining in the US being headed for mothballs. The ports debacle likely means the Muslim world will shift to flying Airbus rather than Boeings.

What are sharp, hardworking teenagers with excellent grades and test scores from middle class backgrounds to do? Both too much complacency (the world will continue for my generation as it did for my parent's generation) and too much alarm (life isn't worth living) are bad. To develop self awareness of the coming world on their own and to establish a basis for making good choices (most high schools likely don't and won't help much in either case), what books should they read or movies should they see? Unless their parents are wealthy, attending almost any private school means they will graduate with significant debt. With instate costs where they are, even attending any state-assisted four year school means they will graduate with some debt. Those looking to professional degrees will graduate with considerable debt. Tough choices compared to those of my generation.

Maybe going to learn a special trade, such as mastering the installation of solar panels or solar water heaters, for which there will be a local demand instead of college is a better path?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
ericy on April 9, 2006 - 4:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
But even some of the "hard" majors are looking a bit dicey. Computer scientist jobs are being outsourced to India where that expertise is growing rapidly. High energy physics is moving to Europe or even Asia as that is where the cutting edge research machines are being constructed, those remaining in the US being headed for mothballs.

Well, speaking as a physicist, going into high energy has always been a difficult career path.  There were always more grad students and post-docs in the pipeline than there were proper jobs for them to migrate into.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
bzbb on April 10, 2006 - 12:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I study natural resources management, in the department of agriculture. We'll always need soil science, forest managers, and such.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Stryker on April 9, 2006 - 10:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I would add careers in:

Booze
Gambling
Armaments
Pornography
Escapism Entertainment

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
AlphaMaleProphetOfDoom on April 10, 2006 - 12:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Don't forget handicrafts. I've already registered the following url:

http://www.PowerdownPenisAdornment.com

. . . in light of what Bob Shaw posted yesterday:

http://www.echoesintime.com/catalog/s.cgi?sf=det.setup.cgi&item=NGTY001Z&submit_search=yes

I plan on having a model that is wrapped with those new thin flim solar cells so it can be used to power small gadgets.

Best,

Matt

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

176 comments on Sunday Open Thread

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version