I suspect that the US will increasingly have to exchange  dollars for something else in order to buy imported oil--unless the US seizes control of the Middle Eastern oil fields.

BTW, I postulated a theory regarding BCR (Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld) some time ago, to-wit:  they knew about Peak Oil from day one; they knew the federal debt would never be repaid; therefore, why not run the debt up and in effect borrow the money to deploy a permanent military force to the Middle East, with the aim of securing the oil fields in Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia, the most valuable real estate in the world in a post-Peak Oil age?  In addition, I theorized that BCR would in effect renege on the debt, either explicitly, or through inflation and/or by crashing the dollar.

Events in the first few months of this year don't seem to offer much contradiction to the theory. What concerns me is that BCR may--and probably do--believe that that have no choice but to proceed with he plan.  If they don't seize control of the oil fields, they will have bankrupted the country and turned the whole world against us, without having control of the oil fields.  An interesting question is whether Bush is part of the plan or if he has been duped by Cheney and Rumsfeld (I keep thinking of Bush as playing the part of the governor in "Blazing Saddles").  Bush apparently believes that he is on a mission from God to bring democracy to the Middle East.  Therefore, to oppose Bush is to oppose God.  

In any case, the above article on the US's geopolitical nightmare is very good.

Well, yeah I guess so.

Great strategic thinking; just "thousands of little tactical errors" as somebody said.

I've been mulling over a little epiphany I had the other day (now that I'm re-interpreting modern history in light of the oil peak).

I was struck by the odd symmetry between the USA and Russia :

  • USA : oil men take over the government, by fair means or foul
  • Russia : government takes over the oil men, by fair means or foul

Khodorovsky is rotting in jail, and what was his crime? Standing against Putin? No, trying to internationalize Russia's oil industry (in particular, with US partners).

Putin has been strikingly more successful than Bush in his oil strategy : he's created a powerful geopolitical tool, which a "free market" would have taken out of his hands.

Putin has been more "successful" because his goals are obviously different. He is attempting to increase the economic and geopolitical strength of Russia. BCR are like CEOs with lots of stock options-if what they do results in long-term strength for the company it is a side effect not the main intention. BCR have been extremely successful at making money for themselves and their friends. Isn't this what American success is all about?  
Good logical explanation of reasons behind Putin actions:
http://geostrategymap.com/freepdfs/Guest_May07_06.pdf
I don't actually think oil men have taken over the US government. We might all be at least somewhat better off if they had.
Oil is merely one of several businesses Bush junior dabbled in, with conspicuous lack of success.
Cheney has no deep roots in oil.
No-one says pharmaceutical executives have taken over, though that was Rumsfeld's job.
Amen to that.
If the Pres was T B Pickens & vice was Simmons - we would be well on the way to trying to fix this mess.
Interesting times, indeed.....

Westexas, I have to congratulate you, as I have slowly but surely come around to your theory, as outlined above (and previously). Still hope you are wrong, but no longer think so.

Westexas is interesting but still wrong. Or at least I still hold that he is wrong.
I appreciate westexas' theory on BCR.  I have had a had time putting the pieces together.  His theory helps in that egad.  I just read the Asia Times article about the failing BCR agenda.  I was a bit shocked at the orchestrated insult to Hu during his White House visit.  As a funny aside, I had dinner with an old buddy of mine during Hu's DC visit.  He was back in town interviewing for a Dept. of Homeland Security job.  He is a good friend but totally unqualified for the job, but when did competence come into play for BCR gov't jobs. Anyway, we wrapped up our dinner and were heading back to his room at the Washington Hilton along Conn. ave just as Bush's motorcade came down the street, returning from a reception at the Chinese embassy.  He waved happily and I flipped Bush off, happily, at the same time standing side by side.  I just hope Bush saw it but I doubt it.  lo, I digress.

The insult to Hu I suspect was to harden Chinese resistance to sanctions against Iran.  The BCR clan can then claim diplomacy has failed and we have no choice but to move unilaterally against Iran.  Cheney's insult to Putin the other day was another calculated attempt to piss off Russia so they too will block any sanction vote in he UN against Iran.

Perhaps the bigger picture is coming into focus.  Any thoughts on my theory?

"BTW, I postulated a theory regarding BCR (Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld) some time ago, to-wit:  they knew about Peak Oil from day one; they knew the federal debt would never be repaid; therefore, why not run the debt up and in effect borrow the money to deploy a permanent military force to the Middle East, with the aim of securing the oil fields in Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia, the most valuable real estate in the world in a post-Peak Oil age?  In addition, I theorized that BCR would in effect renege on the debt, either explicitly, or through inflation and/or by crashing the dollar."

Jeffrey, I don't doubt that you could have come to this conclusion on your own.  But for the record, this is what Mike Ruppert has been telling his subscribers for the last 5 years.  While Ruppert is not infallible, I have made a windfall 400% profit investing on the insights gained from his "map" of what is going on in the world.  Of note, the subtitle of Ruppert's book, "Crossing the Rubicon" is "The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil".  Of course the rest of the story is about the means utilized to mobilize Americans in favour of an invasion of OPEC.

I check out Ruppert's summaries every once in a while, but I'm not a subscriber.    I'm sure a lot of people have come to very similar conclusions.  As Ayn Rand (and I think Aristotle) said, if you have evidence of a contradiction, you should check your premises, because you will find that one of them is wrong.

What has puzzled so many people is Bush's out of control spending.  But if BCR know that the federal debt will never be repaid, post-Peak Oil, it makes a lot more sense.   Why not borrow the money from foreign creditors to finance the takeover of the Middle East?  BCR would have control of the true capital, energy, while creditors of the US were left with piles of rapidly depreciating paper.  Debts are always paid--if not by the debtor, then by the creditor.

Thanks for your post. I have pondered whether some subset of Greenspan / Busher II / Cheney / Rummy / & a bunch of "leading" Democrates were following the John Galt model by actively bringing forward the day when the status quo ceases to work by deliberately destructive behavior.

Are the contradictions that are visible everywhere indicators of a grand conspiracy of merely overwhelming evidence of a culture of gross stupidity?

Who really knows [but my guess is a vote for "gross stupidity" in the general case --- but in regard specifically to peak oil, more likely almost the entire political class knows at a minimum that something is wrong but don't want to be the ones that break the news to the masses]?

In addition to Ruppert, this theory also sounds what the author of this article is theorizing:

http://www.countercurrents.org/eriqat130306.htm

Here is an excerpt:

But what if there really were no tomorrow, financially speaking? In that case, the reckless economic policies of today would not only be irrelevant, but might actually be shrewd. I mean, if one knows that he is not going to have to pay back his debts tomorrow, then why not borrow money like crazy today? In fact, if civilization is coming to an end, then why not use all that borrowed money to stock up on guns and vital resources, such as oil?
Ruppert's site is all pay, all the time now.  Because of this, he has been deleted from my favorite bookmarks.  His news was usually about 1 week later than here anyhoot.
What exactly do you get when you pay? And how much is it? Is there a menu? This is the funniest thing I've heard all day.
Same here, Dragonfly. American Samizdat is also a pretty sharp source for the political news.