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252 comments on DrumBeat: May 16, 2006
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252 comments on DrumBeat: May 16, 2006
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I have been railroaded into a long-term, 100 mile a day commute. I originally agreed to do it for a limited time, but now face the fact that I stay at my current location, or lose my job completely.
Finding a new job in another part of the country and relocating is easier said than done.
It's sad that the incredibly intelligent people on this board still choose to blame the people for their energy-wasting commuting habits, when the fact of the matter is, even in densely populated parts of the nation, there is no meaningful public transportation. I would gladly choose public transportation if:
- It was available.
- It didn't take 3-4 times longer to get where I am going where it is available.
Sometimes it's not about dumb and smart, its about $$ and time. We need realistic alternatives and criticism doesn't get it done.We need an organized effort to improve the public transportation systems in the US.
It takes a significant investment from the public that many are going to fight, but without real alternatives to the personal automobile, the inelastic demand for gasoline will continue until it reaches a break point and real demand destruction occurs through bankruptcy, repossession of cars/houses, unemployment, etc.
My guess is that a fairly old sedan probably costs you about 25¢ per mile, while a new large late model SUV probably costs about $1.00 per mile (total driving costs). So, I would put your monthly commuting costs in a range of about $500 to $2,000 per month.
Question: what if you reduced your current living space square footage by 50% and applied an additional $500 to $2,000 toward your rent/house payment. Could you then afford something within a short distance of your job? You should also consider the time involved in your commute--I assume about two to three hours per day. You could spend this time working--and making money--instead of spending time and money commuting.
When faced with seems like an insurmountable problem, it's useful to assume that you have solved the problem and then work backwards to "figure out" how you you solved the problem. What if you were paying $8 per gallon for gasoline. What changes would you make in your lifestyle?
To answer your questions, my typical commute is 2.5 hrs a day if I speed. I drive a 2 liter 4-cylinder manual. My commuting cost is about $325 a month at average current mpg figures and 3$/gallon.
I already pay low rent: the other tenants are also young professionals, blue-collar couples, and recent immigrant families. My living space is modest, and to move near the central Jersey/NY metro area would raise my rent by about 25% for an apartment that is half the size of my current one (which would be something like a basic small studio). Being that I don't drive much outside of my commute because I live near the places I use for recreation (Mt. Bike trails, fishing ponds/lakes, parks, etc.) it wouldn't be cost effective to move because what i saved by moving near work would be offset by what i spent getting back out to recreational areas on the weekends. Here I have to admit that it IS a standard of living issue, however, being rural 'born and raised' means I would have to sacrifice my ENTIRE way of life to move to an urban area. As it stands, I dont use much gas or energy or even money in my free time!
My major qualm with the attitude on the site is that it tends to advocate only one real sustainable solution, which is urban living. At the current trend of rising inflation alongside reduced real wages, my young-professional paycheck does not allow me to live in a safe urban area in NY/NJ. I live in a rural area! That's what I can afford! Also, outside of my commute, the rural way of life is far more sustainable and uses far less energy than that of the urban way of life. My entertainment is outside, in the woods and around the lakes.
Getting back to the real issue:
There are plenty of major businesses within 20 miles, however, NJ is densely populated even where I live and the competition is fierce. Most jobs that I am offered are in NYC or in the area I currently work because thats where the majority of businesses are. There are no express lines to the city, and the train to NYC is 2.5 hours, one way. In what I consider to be the ultimate insult, there are no trains/buses running south/north, which would greatly ease my problems.
Only east/west.
The competition, and the ever-accelerating race to the bottom dictates that I must stay extremely mobile just to stay afloat. I could do this, and be more energy efficient, if there was better public transportation. Just one north/south line in western NJ would do the trick. Given the population density, it is not an unreasonable solution for hundreds of thousands of people!
Many peak oilers are preparing for the crisis via homesteads in the country, but that's not what most rural Americans have. They are not anything close to self-sufficient.
in some ways I agree with your predictions regarding rural areas but in other ways I have to disagree. If by "rural" you mean two counties removed from D.C. or Chicago, and you're really referring to the spread of exurbia into formerly rural areas, I completely agree. If you mean truly rural areas, I'm not sure that I do. I live in a county of only 60k people, less than half of whom live in a town or village. We still have lots of farm land (and un-farmed farmable land) to go around. we have a fantastic farmer's market. We have way more fresh water than we could ever need. There are tens of thousands of acres of forest. We have wild turkeys, deer and other game plus nut trees, wild berries, mushrooms just growing naturally throughout our county. Our rivers and lakes have lots of fish. Many people here still have their own "gentelman's farm", raise their own chickens for eggs or keep a dozen head of dairy cattle to carry on their families farming tradition. So unlike cities, those of us in rural areas at least won't have other natural resource and food scarcities to cope with as peak oil unfolds. Furthermore, as diesel fuel and pesticides/ fertilizer become more precious, crops yields will likely decline and we may see a reversal in the long decline of acreage devoted to farming in America and the number of persons employed in farming which will benefit rural areas.
The jobs we have here are farming, timber, gas/oil/coal and industrial. I don't see why those type of jobs will evaporate with peak oil. If I lived in a large city based on the banking, investing, service and insurance industries, I'd be more worried about my local economy.
Now, I'll grant that some people here do drive 100+ miles for work and they'll be hit hard. Also many rural areas have been wal-martized, by which I mean the small downtowns evaporated and there is literally no where else to shop for many essentials bc/ everything else went out of business bc/ they couldn't compete with walmart. That will definitely be a problem.
WOW! Tell me where you are, I'll buy some land and move there... most of the great plains (a whole lot of people live and farm here) are only inhabitable because of oil. NG pumps the water out of the wells, diesel farms the land and delivers needed goods, and you can only grow a very limited number of things. This of course doesn't take into account the waning supply of water from the aquifer... In Colorado the state just told 200 farmers to shut off their wells because of shortages to the cities, I think Leanan has a point.
You've got a good point, I need to amend my above comment about rural areas doing better than some believe. Not all rural areas are created equal. I live in SE Ohio along the Ohio River. I guess the difference is that unlike the plains we get 40 inches of rain a year so crops grow without irrigation and if land is left untended forest, rather than grass plains, is the natural result. I guess I should say rural areas in the midwest/ east may do better after the peak. Another rural area that will probably do well is the northwest. Oregon gets tons of rain and crops/ timber grow very well there also.
Moved here from Asheville, NC. Similar amount of annual rain here but almost all in winter & spring months and much lower humidity (ahhhhh!).
Why'd you move?
However, please don't spread fallacies!
In 2004 the New Yorker published an article called "Green Manhattan: Why New York is the greenest city in the U.S." which convincingly presents arguments showing that your statement is off the mark. There may be advantages to living in rural areas, but amount of energy use is probably not one of them.
is your commuting more efficient? of course.
is your space management more efficient? is your electric bill lower? yes and yes.
is this because you live in an economic black hole?
YES. it is artificially supported. it has a lot of gravity and sucks everything in, but ultimately, cannot sustain itself.
The crowdedness is a virtue that makes energy efficiency possible. Yes, stuff is trucked it, but imagine if the 1.5 million people who live on Manhattan were spread out evenly over Northwest New Jersey. You'd have no space for the farms and you'd be trucking things all over every different direction, which is less efficient than going all to the same overall destination. Anyway, we should be using rail for freight, not trucks. Rail being less spread out than highways concentrates shipments into urban cores.
If anything, I'm glad we got to see people chime in and give their 2 cents on the whole urban/suburban/rural issue in regards to the coming energy crunch. Its good to see people with different ideas jump in the fray and try and understand things the way I think people have just done here, because all ways of life need to change, and people have to understand the give and take of how its going to have to be done.
The way I am doing it is clearly going to become impossible soon, and thanks to this site I have begun to actively try and find another way to live.
Along these lines, I think that towns (not suburbs, but towns with a center and mixed residential/commercial usage) probably have the best hope since they might be more or less self-sufficient. Rural areas aren't going to work, because individual houses on 5 acre plots that are 5-10 miles from the nearest amenity are going to be too isolated. Yes, it's true that one can put up solar panels or a wind turbine (as Eric Blair criticizes me below), but that's not going to be enough for existence. One will still need goods and services from other community members, which will necessitate a somewhat denser living arrangement. This is my opinion.
For the record, I don't think that mega-cities like New York could survive a total energy blow out, if that's what ends up happening, but I might point out that there have been cities all over the world way before there was an industrial revolution or a green revolution. So a place like New York--like most other places--will suffer a big decline in population, but it won't be obliterated from existence altogether.
Which leaves this as a remaining question: if and when the population of New York City suffers a major contraction, will I be one of the survivors should I choose to stay here? Unfortunately, I can't know the answer to that right now.
Then you are going to debunk? Cool!
In 2004 the New Yorker published an article called
So you have opted to use a source that is all about talking about New York to show how New York is a fine idea?
Wow. that's like asking the Saudi oil ministry what they think about Saudi oil.
5 rural acres can feed a family with what is grown on it.
40 acres can provide enough trees in rotation to heat a rural home VS exactly HOW sustainable a New York apartment dweller is?
but amount of energy use is probably not one of them.
Ever tried putting up solar panels or, better yet a wind turbine in New York city? In a rural location you can do that. The wind turbine is why I want a rural location. (im my ideal world the wind turbine would have so much excessive power I would not be able to do the 20kw grid intertie, and I'd have to shunt power to big outdoowr water tanks.....)
where will you be?
I call it blissful liberation from the capitalists when my tribe and I will grow wonderful food and celebrate our humanity and rejoice that there is no more oil to make things as bad as they were in the first 6 years of the 21st century.
I suspect that you are underestimating the true cost of your 2,000 mile per month commute. You need to include depreciation, maintenance, insurance and fuel. An average new sedan is about 50 cents per mile. Very large SUV's are in the 75 cents to one dollar pre mile range. IMO, your true cost is probably at least 25 cents per mile, or $500/month. I assume that there may be some parking costs also.
You also need to consider the time. 2.5 hours times 20 days = 50 hours. At $20/hour, this would be $1,000.
So, using the above assumptions, I would put your true commuting cost in the range of at least $1,500 per month ($18,000 per year). The more expensive your car (and the higher that gas prices are) and the greater your income earning potential, the greater the commuting cost.
In regard to your weekend leisure pursuits, why not move close to your job and then take the mass transit that is available to leisure activity areas. Or, if you have to, drive there on weekends.
There is one other factor. By driving 2,000 miles per month, you significantly increase your chances of dying (or becoming disabled) in an auto accident.
My #1 recommendation continues to be to try to reduce the distance between work and home to as close to zero as possible.
I want to be clear with you and make sure you know I understand and agree with what you are saying. I am very well aware of the true cost of my commute, because although I own my car outright as I bought it very used, I have had issues with maintenance that cost a lot of money.
I also have come to the same conclusion that you are suggesting, although, with a different kind of connotation. I need to find another area to live in, one that isn't so metropolitan that the distances between the city centers and the rural areas aren't quite so large. I don't think I have been clear enough in pointing out that as time goes on, and students become more and more financially responsible for their own education finances and all the peripheral costs college entails, we are going to see a larger class of professionals who start out with the kind of debt loads usually associated with car or home ownership, but with no assets to speak of save for a degree. Therefore, these people will be forced to live where it is cheap, and work where they can make more money than they are worth (read: corporations, urban centers).
In NJ, you either put up with urban living, or you drive a lot. Just ask anyone from the area; the amount of people living in PA and commuting to NY or NJ has increased to ridiculous levels. Around here, a 100 mile or so commute isn't all that uncommon. This is not going to be possible anymore when we are forced to reckon with the true cost of gasoline.
It is the perfect example of unsustainable suburbia/ rural-urban commuting.
You mentioned that the only wise course of action is to move closer to work, and I agree, although I would never sacrifice my way of life to the degree necessary to live in the NY/NJ urban area (and most of you who live elsewhere wouldn't either if you knew what it entails!).
I think the key is to move away from the older metropolitan areas and towards the more flexible populated regions that offer a better living/working dynamic in a smaller relative area. Major urban centers such as NYC tend to negate the possibility of a balance and I am currently trying to find a smaller city that offers working opportunities and public transportation that hasn't pushed the rural periphery as far away as NYC has. The whole NYC/Philadelphia corridor is an urban/suburban sprawl that I refuse to live in/can't afford to live in. I know many people who are in the same boat as me, and I see my friends scattering to the wind in order to find a place they can afford to live in. As oil prices go up, and the economy goes down, it becomes crucial to get out of the `in-between' way of life I currently live.
From what I have heard, Portland is a good choice, offering jobs, excellent public trransportation and easy/near access to nature.
Anyone hiring?
Right. Because reading TOD is worth your bill rate, as is making your own food for you to eat, and reading the joke e-mails and.....
I live in a studio apartment becuse rents for anything bigger are prohibitive - and I make $45,000/year! To find a house at my income, I could do like a coworker and drive 80 miles each way, and that's 80 miles as the crow (or a Harrier) flies. Even if gas was a dime a gallon like Caracas, a 2-hour commute is a deterrent par excellence. Any farther, and you'd need a plane to commute with. Good thing I work at an airport. But don't laugh...
Jokes aside, someone working by Microsoft apparently lived far from work and wanted a ranch. One foggy day in 1999, he got his Cessna tangled in high voltage lines. He was "driving" to work!
Once, a radio station had a contest to see who had the longest commute. The winner drove (a car) 3 hours each way! Of course, affordable housing was the motive.
Bankruptcy. Assuming the best, of course: assuming that I am still employed.
That's the reality for many recent college grads. If and when the US loses its gasoline price advantage, and the economy loses much of its steam, its people like me that are going to play the role of the canaries.
What if there was an outfit to match such folks (like the many dating services out there) who could then, upon assessment of specifics, perhaps some negotiation, and approval of the employers - switch jobs. I wonder how much of an impact such a system might be able to have on our need to commute? Just a thought.
What if the Mary cog finds out that the Joe cog was paid more for a simlar cog job than she was because of her gender or race? That could make some manager cogs uneasy. Don't want the lower cogs to know too much.
Cog swapping can lead to information swapping.
We don't want that to happen do we?
In a "free trade" society one is not allowed to trade information. That is a big managerial no no. Must keep all cogs in their place.
Be forewarned Clifman cog, even thinking is un-cog-like behavior. Please don't do it anymore. ;-)
A faceless, transferable, disposable unit of labor.....
(Thx Step Back, that evoked a good laugh - pretty rare for me these days...)
A variation on this idea is to switch houses/apartments.
That was like a perfect idea that went bannannas at the end by suggesting a carreer swap.
We have exactly this situation in Aberdeenshire where Teachers, Teaching assistants and others commute to other towns and villages.
If anyone could start to look at this, it is likely that (IMO), the local government workers such as above could enact this sooner than the private sector.
On the one hand I completely sympathize with your situation. I live car free but that is going to end if I want to take some organic ag. classes at the local junior college. It would be absolutely impossible for me to run my usual errands plus get out to the jc a couple times per week on the piss-poor public transit we have here.
The only reason I can live car-free now is because I work from home, have no kids, and no outside obligations. If any of those variables were to change, I'd have to not only get a car but use it considerably unless I wanted to move.
On the other hand it sounds that between your commute and how much your paying for gas, I'm thinking you aren't much more than your own car's personal bitch.
Best,
Matt
Perhaps he wants a boyfriend or a young ward?
Na, Batman never let Robin drive the Batmobile ;)
http://www.1966batmobile.com/background.htm
http://www.1966batmobile.com/spec.htm
http://www.1966batmobile.com/engine.jpg
Call it 8 mpg.