208 comments on DrumBeat: May 17, 2006
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208 comments on DrumBeat: May 17, 2006
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Despite the war, life was pretty civilized back then. People relied heavily on trains for longer trips and bicycles for shorter ones. Due to gas rationing, car trips were special occassions--unless of course you were on official business. Most importantly, people had time for other people instead of wasting their days away on solitary electronic distractions.
I can see us reverting back to the lifestyle portrayed in this series within the next ten years, if the worst case predictions come true.
I give Foyle's War a rating of 4.5 out of 5 stars.
"Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race."
--H. G. Wells, 1904
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0324197/
It's scary in way that horror films cannot be, because it centers on disorientation and uncertainty.
I saw that film at a film festival, and it was one of the more difficult ones that I have seen. A number of people walked out in the middle as I recall. Disorienting is a good way to put it.
I have seen other works by this director (la Pianist - The Piano Teacher), which was also rather disturbing, but in a very different way.
Also, based on today's prices I assume there was good news on gas inventory?
Let them bring it up, in the form of high heating or gasoline costs. If you start, it sounds like proselytizing.
Never use the term "peak oil." It either introduces something they don't know, which you have to explain anyway, or they have heard it and think it's one of those weird online conspiracy things.
Tell them prices are high because of supply and demand--the amont of oil being produced can't keep up with the quickly rising worldwide demand, particularly from China. They understand S&D, so you'll have no trouble there.
Then hit them with a fixating stat: The world uses 85 million barrels of oil per day. That's old news to everyone here, but when non-energy geeks hear it for the first time it stops most of them dead in their tracks.
Then tell them oil production has been declining in the US48 since 1970, and mention other exporting countries that are seeing big drops. This is where they get the wide-eyed look.
Finally, tell them that this isn't really old news--some geologist guy named Hubbert predicted the US48peak in 1956.
If they're still breathing, tell them they can find more information on TOD, EB, etc.
Since last fall after talking to my brother about how much oil we use world wide per day he would hear the number and yet nothing would register in his face. So after some thinking I gave him an analogy of how much oil we use on a world basis and the rate we use it per day. I use over the road tanker trucks which haul between 7 to 9,000 gallons (I use 8,000 gal) and a 5 lane wide freeway.
So you're standing on a bridge over a 5 lane wide freeway with tanker trucks rolling by you at 60MPH. 5 trucks abreast and nose to tail in each lane as far as you can see in both directions. Roughly one set of 5 trucks going by per second. That is how much oil we use world wide every second of every minute of every hour, night and day, of each month during the year. And next year due to growth we need to add another lane for some more trucks.
84,000,000 mb/d
3,528,000,000 gal/d (42 gal / barrel)
147,000,000 gal/hr
2,450,000 gal/min
40,833 gal/sec
8,000 gal/truck
5.1 trucks per second
60 MPH = 88 feet/sec
He looked a little sick by the end but since he is my brother I had to push him further by asking if we should talk about coal or natural gas or any commodities. Shut up I think was his reply. I am always stunned by the shear volume and velocity that 6.5 billion of us on this planet use each and every day.
Very cool idea I never thought about a PhotoShop pic. I can see the vision in my head but to see it in a pic/poster would be even more sobering. I can down load pics from my camera from there on I do not have the time or skill to PhotoShop it. If you do go for it if you have the time and let me know. My brothers reaction would be priceless! JC
That is, when talking to most people, the opinion that "there is plenty of oil" typically comes up pretty soon. I ask them if they think there is an infinite amount.
If they truly believe that, I will never convince them of anything. But usually with a little prodding people will grudgingly admit that there must be some limit.
From here it is easy to conclude that we will start running out sometime. The response is often along the lines of "Yeah, but that is so long from now it doesn't matter."
How long is that? Even the most riduculous forecast, anyone they can mention (USGS, the Saudis, oil companies themselves), agree there is not much more that 50 years of oil left, prehaps 100 (obviously that is a crass statement, assuming an impossible amount of recoverable oil and ignoring all sorts of physical issues, but it is sufficient for our purposes here).
So is 50 years a long time?
That is in the (current expected) lifetime of many of us. Easily in that of our children. Very possibly, our grandchildren won't even be out of high school in 50 years. Your parents probably remember 50 years ago. 50 years is not long at all.
This make it more tangible. Even the using the farthest out, most pie-in-the-sky projections, we will "run out of oil" so soon you could be around see the day. After that we will have none. Nothing. No cars, no planes, nothing at all. And people we know and love, our kids, perhaps even us, will be dealing with it.
Most people will at least stop for a second here.
Then you go into why the extreme projection are likely way off (big fields peaking all around the world already). And how things like ANWR are so tiny as to not make much difference (85 million bpd vs perhaps 1).
And the ancedote about Hubbert predicting the peak of US oil is usually pretty good. I find many people don't realize that US oil production has been decreasing for almost 40 years.
I never tell newbies that one day the oil will run out. I do tell them that it will become so expensive we'll have to find other solutions, which I believe is accurate.
I definitely would never tell them "no cars, no planes, nothing at all." No electric cars? No prop planes running on ethanol, biodiesel, or CTL fuel? I don't think that's even close to being a reasonable prediction, and it only makes the peak oilers sound like frustrated Y2K-ers who are still upset that nothing bad happened on 1/1/2000.
I think the key is to lead newbies to the facts in as non-threatening a way as possible, and then walk them back from their knee-jerk leap into extreme pessimism. If you hit them with the "sky is falling" stuff, even after going through most of the facts, you'll lose most of 'em instantly.
Once that bridge is crossed, you can much more freely talk about what to do about it. This is where it gets lively. I have managed to get most of my coworkers Peak Oil Aware, and some have really taken to it (cutting driving, lowering thermostats, installing a rainwater system in one case, etc).
Saying "no nothing" is extreme, and not what I believe. I am sorry if I lead you to believe I was predicting that. But it accurately underlines how dependendent on oil our current situation is (in western, and western-aspiring, societies). To a large extent, there is very little we are comfortable with today that will eventually have to be rethought (electric cars or what have you).
Then the notion that each nation is an aggregate of all of its small fields and thus its national production follows the same pattern.
Then, logically, the earth is the aggregate of the nations that produce oil.
So it follows pretty well for many people that the easy oil under pressure that flows the fastest, is less viscous etc.. is the first produced. What follows is slower, harder, lower quality.
With that understood as groundwork, the details of Saudi ala Simmons, Cantarell decline, North Sea, US peak, etc help locate us in the historical moment we're in.
That has been my method anyway...
Matt, DC
I went to school on a tram(streetcar) powered by electricity from a coal fired power station, there were diesel trucks and some diesel buses but a lot of commerce was delivered by horse drawn vehicles, Laundry, green grocery, bread, milk, coal, post and hardware were brought to your door by horse drawn traffic. There were also steam lorries (trucks) which were coal fired. They were quiet and surprisingly fast.
It was possible to travel by steam train to just about anywhere in the UK and there was a lot of waiting in line to book tickets and then to board the train. you were exceptionally lucky if you gat a seat.
We kept warm with coal fires which had a back boiler for hot water and a side oven for baking, or we could cook on a gas stove fuelled by gas made from coal at the gasworks which every town had.
Lighting was by electricity 1 X 60 watt bulb in a living room was thought adequate. But there were a lot of houses which had gas lighting which hissed and burned with a greenish glow It was paid for with a coin in a meter so when the light started to go dim there was a hunt for small change
lot of people cycled and had allotmants, a bit of ground rented to you at a nominal sum by the municipal athourities.
for the purpose of growing produce, also people kept ducks, or chickens or even a pig if they had room.
The air was filthy in a coal society. Thousands of domestic fires. locomatives and factory chimneys all belching out smoke caused fogs, lung disorders, and blackened buildings.
there was always a smell of sulpher in the air and the sun shone weakly through the haze.
Most things were rationed, there was very little protein or fat but diet wise people were healther than before the war or since. Obesity was not a problem.