303 comments on XTL: Promise and Peril
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303 comments on XTL: Promise and Peril
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Even if this were not true, though, it wouldn't affect my fundamental argument: Jeremiah's claim about the "desperate wickedness" of the hearts of human beings is just as true of Chinese, Indian, and Russian hearts as it is of American and Western European hearts.
If you think I am wrong, I challenge you to point out to me a discernible trend entailing self-sacrifice and cooperation in energy-related news of recent months - one that is sufficient to outweigh the manifest tendencies towards increasing antagonism and hostility in this sphere.
We will (chances are) never see that person again, but we do a little 'tit for tat' or 'golden rule' or 'game theory' behavior that we think will, indirectly, benefit us in the future.
I realize that is only 'energy' in the most primitive, muscular sense, holding the door open, but it all flows from there. ;-)
Are the Saudis and other profligately rich Middle East producers going to start giving away some of their oil for free to very poor countries who desperately need it? Are the Russians going to "play nice" and stop their energy-related bullying of the Europeans? Is the United States going to desist from hypocritically bullying the Russians for bullying the Europeans? Are the US and Venezuela going to desist from calling each other the "New Hitlers?" Are China and Japan going to start "playing nice" in the East China Sea anytime soon? Are all of these countries, and others besides, going to desist from their self-serving wrangling about where to build new pipeline routes across Eurasia? Are the rebels in Nigeria going to desist from their terrorism, and is the government of Nigeria going to "play nice" and give in to their legitimate demands? And so on and so forth....
Where is anyone "holding the door" for anyone else here - other than as relatively minor matters in the grand scheme of things? [And those who do "hold the door" for others, like Venezuela, are denounced for doing so on top of it all!!]
I think we've ended up in a different place than we started. Altruism and cooperation exist in societies. In times of national emergency we have had national energy programs (up to including rationing) to deal with it.
If we are sticking to the core, and expectation of human response to peak oil, I'd say that is primarily a national "let's pull together" issue. I expect a mix of competition and cooperation on the international scene, as we have seen throughout the last century. Sometimes that competition is quite unpleasant, as history shows.
I don't expect nations to lie down like lions and lambs, but neither to I expect nations to fall apart uniformly around the world (there is always the unfortunate, isolated, case: Northern Ireland, Lebanon, ...).
Humans, and the societies that emerge when you have a bunch of humans in a group, are quite different beasts. Humans can be, and are, altruistic towards each other but it's not clear that the same is true of societies, nations, corporations etc.
See Reinhold Niebuhr's Moral Man and Immoral Society
"It may be possible, thought it is never easy, to establish just relations between individuals within a group purely by moral and rational suasion and accomodation. In inter-group relations this is practically an impossibility. The relations between groups must therefore be predominantely political rather than ethical, that is, they will be determined by the proportion of power which each groups posesses at least as much as by any rational and moral appraisal of comparative needs and claims of each group."
Odograph, I'm not in any way taking issue with your general point, but the example you gave is culturally limited, and I thought you might like to realize that. For example, in Hong Kong, people never hold doors open for others, and they are quite glad to shut the doors of the evelator in your face as you charge towards it (I once managed to enter an elevator that had been shut thus once - they couldn't go anywhere, my foot was stuck in the outer door - and I then greeted everyone present therein with the loud appellation 'Sh*theads!'. Yeah, it was a cultural thing. That's the point.)
The irony is this: re lifts, you are on the receiving end more often than otherwise, so it would actually be rational to hold open the lift door for strangers. You lose one second, but on balance you gain up to five minutes, if everyone behaves otherwise. Of course, no one behaves otherwise, so everyone spends their lives quickly shutting the elevator doors in strangers' faces for the benefit of one or two seconds.
In Hong Kong, you are told this sort of behaviour results because people are 'busy'. In fact, it is simply a form of rudeness or indifference, cultivated because everyone is generally subject to the same sort of behaviour.
Again, nothing to do with your general point. But something to remember for any of you who are headed East. Hold the lift door open for a lady and you will be greeted with (a) very profuse thanks or (b) the sort of indifference reserved for the obviously insane.
Phil, I think you may be confusing the reaction of the American government/military/industrial complex with the people of the country. I don't know where you live, but here in the midwest we just had the biggest, baddest icestorm in our recorded history. In the small city I live in (about 300,000 counting the surrounding burbs) we had 75,000 people without power for 3-12 days. One of the local DJs stayed on the air 24 hrs. a day for several days fielding calls from people who needed help of various kinds and the numerous calls from people offering help. Yes, there were a few "gougers", but people who still had electric took in strangers who had no heat/electricity, people who had wood offered it free to people who had fireplaces but no wood (same with kerosene, ect.), local motels/hotels offered reduced rates and even free lodging to people who had no heat/electricity or who had live powerlines or trees downed on their homes/cars until shelters could be set up. People with food took food to people who'd gotten stranded in their homes without food, etc., etc.
Granted it wasn't peak oil and there will be many more frightened, unprepared people who, if not given aid by neighbors, etc., may become violent if peak oil hits as hard as some of us expect. But what happened around here was very heartening to this old cynic. (Yes, since I have gas heat, I even opened my small home to three other people who I fed and feted - LOL.) And I suspect similar stories could be told across the country during the ice storms that hit. Most areas of the country have some history of self-reliance/helping each other out.
As for the afore mentioned govt./military/industrial complex, I suspect Katrina or worse will be the pattern of response to peak oil. But I wouldn't count out the average American just yet - Jeremiah's adage to the contrary or not.
Linda
This whole thread dealing with whether people are naturally altruistic or not is missing one important factor. The people helping each other in the ice storm or hurricanes ( We lost power for 3 months after Iniki) or other maladies that afflict us from time to time all have one thing in common. They all fully expect that things will soon return to "normal". The power will come back on, the grocery store will get refilled. The military will provide temporary clean water and food until things get back to "normal".
When there is no reasonable likelihood that "normal" will return, oil prices will get higher and higher, food will get more expensive and less available, unemployment will rise, electricity will get more expensive and/or unavailable, and the expectation is that this situation will not improve, then we will see how basically altruistic human beings truly are.