<We breathe it out, so it must be OK The Oil Drum DrumBeat: May 19, 2006>

117 comments on May IEA Oil Market Report

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Richard on May 18, 2006 - 4:42am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Let's hope the trend really is upward, and not a small blip.
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jdeely on May 18, 2006 - 1:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Production Flattens Out

I am guessing that the trend will flatten out for the rest of the year. Demand in developed countries will drop due to high prices. This will be evened out by continuing - although slower - rise in developing countries. So overall, production will be flat.

 If production continues to rise then inventories will build.

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jim burke on May 18, 2006 - 10:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
If one steps back and looks at this curve, imagining its future shape, it becomes quite alarming.

What if the back slope is a mirror image of the front slope?

A few seasons in plateau, then perhaps a drop as steep as the initial rise from 2002 to 2005. Perhaps a 10% drop in three or four years.

Does anybody have an idea what a 10% drop in oil supply would do to the price of gasoline?

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MetaMeme on May 18, 2006 - 2:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It seems that everyone is happy to over-analyse this blip.

Some have even decided that Peak Oil is NOT here yet based on this minor blip.

You are simply giving ammunition to the anti-PO crowd through this indecision. It could be exactly the effect the suppliers of the data seek ...

Peak Oil may - or may not - be around the corner ... but we shouldn't overact to the slightest data point.

Let's just wait a couple of months to see a more accurate trend ... whichever way it goes.

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Richard on May 18, 2006 - 9:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You are correct, one data point doesn't tell us much. And PO is a rearview mirror event. So let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
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davebygolly on May 19, 2006 - 12:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
What are we hoping for? Unless any small amount of extra time we are given is actually used to prepared for what we face, then I'm really sure what to hope for.
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davebygolly on May 19, 2006 - 12:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Ahem, NOT SURE what to hope for!

Quickfingers.

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Richard on May 19, 2006 - 1:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
One thing more or less in the middle would be high oil prices while PO is still a decade or more away.

How about that?

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MicroHydro on May 19, 2006 - 4:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"Let's hope the trend really is upward, and not a small blip."

MTF?!?!?  What's the matter, climate change not moving fast enough for you?

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117 comments on May IEA Oil Market Report

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