The market doesnt work in situations like this. End users can earn a 100%+ return by buying front month NG now and storing it against Jan-Feb needs (price is over double). But there does NOT exist such storage capacity otherwise people would be doing it. NG market will continue to be just in time inventory - crisis will be here first time we have hot summer or cold winter. (Russia had a VERY cold winter this year).

The mild winter has (because of lowering NG demand) put some relief on coal/rail infrastructure and if there is alot of left over NG by summers end it will likely replace coal for power demand at the margin rather than be potentially flared (gasp!).

This is a long winded answer of saying the crisis in NG in US exists -it just has a time lag.

Natural Gas production is at its lowest point in years though stocks are building. It is all the result of demand destruction. In the last three years, because of very high natural gas prices, many industrial users, such as nitrogen fertilizer producers, have moved overseas where natural gas prices are much lower. It is easy for a lot of people. Natural gas prices of over $15 last November was the death knell for many industrial users. They either moved overseas or just closed their doors for good.

US natural gas production peaked in 1973 then reached a secondary but lower peak in 2001. We are definitely on the downhill side of the peak and will see lower production each year. But because people can either close shop, move overseas or switch to coal for power generation, we will not likely see prices above $15 again for several years.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_dcu_NUS_m.htm

http://money.guardian.co.uk/utilities/story/0,,1779621,00.html

We have local gas storage tanks in the UK that move up and down with the volume being stored. The local tank, less than a mile from where I live, dipped to its lowest level early winter that I had ever witnessed. Interestingly after a cold spell in March the height was raised in April only to take a dive last month close to the winter level and has stayed low.

I think the UK is going to be very 'interesting' this winterin relation to NG.

It's still coming. Denver, as you probably heard, had its first-ever winter blackout, partly due to a downturn in natural gas supply. A fluke, according to Xcel Energy, but many new patterns begin as flukes.