<DrumBeat: May 24, 2006 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: May 25, 2006>

231 comments on E85: Spinning Our Wheels

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

Robert Rapier on May 24, 2006 - 3:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think a lot of these comments are all about the Iowa caucus. I think you can expect people from both parties who have an intent of running for president to make pro-ethanol statements.

RR

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
alan on May 24, 2006 - 3:57pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Reminds me of an episode of West Wing. The candidates were in Iowa campaigning, the question of the day was "Will you take the pledge?"
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
totoneila on May 24, 2006 - 6:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello RR,

Kudos to you: a Cassandra of E85 Truth!

A few basic questions that should be put to all Pres. candidates are:

1.  Since we have past the peak in food output and drastically reduced food aid to starving children worldwide, shouldn't we be rebuilding future American grain inventories here at home versus burning it in our E85 SUVs?

http://www.fas.usda.gov/excredits/FoodAid/FoodAid101_files/frame.htm

  1. Since milgov policy is to concentrate the E85 benefits and diffuse the costs to the taxpayer:  what is your projected E85 subsidy tipping point when postPeak American starvation outweighs the E85 elite profits?

  2. How fast does our switching to ERoEI-weak E85 'energy slaves' accelerate the growth of future American manual labor 'wage slaves'; i.e. Westexas's college grads and illegals laboring together in the farm fields?

  3.  If global warming and acquifer depletion result in American Dustbowl conditions will you volunteer yourself and your offspring to a daily regimen of pedaling a bicycle-powered water pump?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/experimental/edb/lbfinal.gif

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Don in Colorado on May 25, 2006 - 2:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hi Bob,

Here's something I've been thinking about a lot in a post-peak world:

I have a 120-acre farm/ranch that could eventually be broken up into smaller micro-farms for families -- say 10 or 15 acres. I've even considered the idea of selling "turn-key permaculture farmettes."

But would it be better keep the land in one piece and hire people to help work it when conventional fuel becomes too expensive.

I recognize the possibility the milgov will simply sieze the farm and do what they want with it, but I'm trying to be an agro-optimist about this.

What would you do?

My preference would be a leaving a small sustenance farm for myself and putting the rest in wildlife refuge, but I have an ethical quandary about providing for wildlife while people starve.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
totoneila on May 25, 2006 - 3:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello Don in Colorado,

I am a life-long city boy with no farming experience--so this advice is probably wrong--you would know better than I.

Hiring help gives you greater control, but they will abandon you when times get tough.  Selling farmettes offers a chance for better security, community, defensibility, and teamwork because your neighbors will be heavily invested and committed to the land.

Evaluating true sustainability where you include the surrounding wildlife and their habitat requirements is beyond my ability, perhaps some US Parks & Wildlife Game Management textbooks would be a good starting resource.  I would not feel guilty about your ethical quandary trying to save other lifeforms [Noah's Ark]-- it takes all life to make the world go round.

The Overshoot condition will bring plenty of starving people to loot your farm, no matter if you subdivide or not--that is not your fault.  Your job is to save the very last tomato, potato, rutabaga, and parsnip if you can.  Any deer, elk, pine tree and birch that you helped to grow will have to take its chances at that time, but if you and your neighbors have created sufficient quantities--some will escape to survive.

My advice is to spread the Peakoil Outreach to your existing neighbors, hopefully building a small core into an ever larger biosolar habitat that can generate sufficient surplus real wealth. WTSHTF, hopefully your group can hire a company of real crack snipers from Blackwater Security to patrol the perimeter.  This should work fine as long as the meals hold out-- recall my earlier post.  You and your farming neighbors may have to work twice as hard as these Earthmarines, but you won't have to kill anybody, and you and your neighbors will be the ones getting a decent night's rest.

Soldiers make very poor farmers, see my Zimbabwe post. They will be thrilled if you feed them.  Dogs of War viciously defend their food bowls. I think this symbiosis seems logical as the best way to defend 'land lifeboats'.  My two cents--your mileage may vary.

John Robb, former Special Forces member, now of Global Guerrilla blog fame, can probably elaborate further or soundly refute what I am saying is the best course. I suggest you email him:
 http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/about.html

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Engineer-Poet on May 25, 2006 - 5:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Your hired soldiers will become your feudal masters in short order.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
smekhovo on May 25, 2006 - 5:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Unless you castrate them in infancy, then breed them up as warriors. Then they will be loyal, having no heirs.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
totoneila on May 25, 2006 - 4:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello EP and other replies,

Thxs for responding.  I never said this would be easy.  Yes, it is quite likely that the Earthmarines will become the eventual feudal masters, but they should be smart enough to realize that it will be counter-productive to kill the hand that feeds them.  Far better to maintain an outward defensive focus until the invasive threat subsides.

As Ted Koppel speculates: [see LATOC news & upates for this essential article] it is far more likely that large biosolar habitats will arise from the profit-oriented drive of international consortiums meeting detritus entropy.  The '3 Days of the Condor' scenario run to its max. profit REAL BIOSOLAR WEALTH conclusion.  Consider: biosolar 'Monsantoland', 'GazPromisedLand', 'XOMobiland', etc as inevitable results.

The overriding concern is if the full-on nuclear gift exchange can be avoided-- a big IF-- but corporate powers, which transcend geographic borders, will do their best to prevent this because noone profits.

In my mind, it is easy to forsee corporate IPOs where the farmers pledge their land & labor in exchange for inclusion into the creation of large and distinct corporate biosolar habitats whereby the corps' accumulated wealth is used to optimize and expand sustainability.  'Cargilland', for example, could quickly arise in the American Heartland to stem the massive throngs leaving the denuded Southwest, similar to the Gretna sheriffs preventing Nawlins residents from crossing the freeway bridge.  It is only logical, as the first order of business, is to prevent the swamping of a 'land lifeboat'.  Corp entities can finance and equip Earthmarines far longer than the disassociated and disorganized detritovores caught in entropic decline.

Once a distinct habitat is created, a similar project to Zimbabwe's "Taking out the Trash" can be commenced to outsource any non-additive economic drags.  Sad.  =(

But I would prefer wholesale mitigation and cooperation to all of the above.  Hopefully an astounding breakthrough will come out of the upcoming G8 Energy Security conference.  Time will tell.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oilrig medic on May 25, 2006 - 5:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"Soldiers make very poor farmers"

?  An odd conclusion.  How good are lawyers, engineers, professors and bloggers?

Blackwater shooters get paid 750$ a day.  If one of these guys wants your food they have the weapons and will to do it.  You'd be better of marrying your daughters to guys like this and hoping they can farm.

ask your Dr. about lithium

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
smekhovo on May 25, 2006 - 6:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The cracks about lithium, mescaline etc. are getting old.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Donal on May 25, 2006 - 7:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I've got a theory about this. People hear these insults from Howard Stern wannabe DJs, or Rush Limbaugh wannabe radio pundits, and there's either a bunch of goons paid to laugh, or a laugh track, or wisecrack SFX, and they laugh.

Then they try it themselves, not realizing the material isn't really funny, and wonder why no one's laughing but themselves.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Rick on May 25, 2006 - 6:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Point taken, but I doubt that Rush is making many medication jokes these days.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
fallout on May 25, 2006 - 12:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This engineer (and blogger) is a former soldier himself.
I suspect I'm not alone. Oilrig Medic is himself a blogger and ex-soldier. =P

Historically speaking (Carthage, Rome, Greek city states, etc), mercenaries are pretty lousy soldiers, except under certain circumstances. Lack of motivation (beyond personal profit) being key.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oilrig medic on May 25, 2006 - 2:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Mercenaries historically will renegotiate their contracts from time to time as it suits them.  It is relatively easy to defend your own land (Waco Tx) against a superior force because of intimate knowledge of the land/house.

My point about engineers/bloggers/lawyers etc is very few of us know how to farm and those of us that do have never had to its has only been supplemental.

If my lithium comment offended anyone I apologize. I was joking that the Earthmarine/detrivore concept is sci-fi delusional and obscures an otherwise positive message.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
fallout on May 25, 2006 - 2:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I enjoy gardening, but a farmer I'm not. ^_^
But I suspect most of us may get to try our hand at it at some point in the future.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oilrig medic on May 25, 2006 - 3:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I had a squad leader who I am pretty sure was a sociopath.  Back before Y2k I filled up all my spare gas tanks and bought a chainsaw for firewood and like 2 months worth of food.  I asked him what he was doing and he said "I have an AR15 and the skill to use it.  I can take any supplies other people have stockpiled for me..."

The point of security home personal or other wise is not to be an easy target.  Make the bad guys go after the weaker part of the herd.

Most of the US supplemental gardening is easy.  I suspect a PO crisis will be slow enough to allow us to learn how to farm.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Substrate on May 26, 2006 - 11:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hypothetical/thought provoker: How big of a fuster cluck do you think Y2K would have been if all of the software engineers didn't decide until say December 29, 1999 to start weeding out the goof in critical software?
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
TG80 on May 25, 2006 - 6:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Greetings all esp. Totoneilia and others that discuss various post-peak scenarios. I have in my previous posts stated enough along with using this same screen name to give away much of my identity. Simply stated I have a VERY CLOSE AFFILIATION WITH BLACKWATER and have the background to back it up. That said: "soldiers (and Mercs) make poor farmers" is out of place and simply not true. Because my background is X does not mean that I am stupid. I do not consider farming rocket surgery. The American public vastly underestimates the Special operations community personnel primarily because of poor representation vis-i-vis media. I do not even own a television because I consider it to be the equivilant of nursing at the brest of mediocrity....The majority of SO personnel have above average intelligence and significant IQ (whatever that may be) scores to be the focus of much study and group analysis....suprise yourself and do some background work....I always felt that if the enemy was carrying a gun then he must not mind dying and if that was the case I didn't mind killing him....but I'm no Nazi and killin is serious moral business in the professional world. Please do not mistake SO professionals for nazi stormtroopers pitchforking babbies for money. We have families and love our children dearly. Some social facts defy explination surrounding our inability to stay married but the vast majority of SO guys desire the same human interaction most people.

More later...but very respectfully TG80 sends

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
totoneila on May 25, 2006 - 9:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello TG80,

Thxs for responding.  I profoundly agree with your points, but I see where the brevity of my posts can sometimes misconvey the wrong info.

I have had earlier discussions with other Blackwater Associates in the Yahoo:AlasBabylon forum.  I have no doubts as to your ability to assimilate into a biosolar lifestyle, probably easier that most of us.  But your unique skill specialization is best optimized, in the early stages, to the outward defensive focus until the invasive threat subsides.  The defense of biosolars, so that they can hopefully optimize a surplus unhindered to share with their protectors, is crucial.  After that, the beating of most swords into plowshares will be welcomed by all.

Zimbabwean soldiers cannot be compared to modern Special Forces--I regret that some made this connection due to my posting.  I was using Mugabe's mismanagement of farming as an illustrative example of the wrong way to build a biosolar community.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Oil CEO on May 26, 2006 - 1:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I stumbled upon this sub-thread and was quite happy to see the discussion.

My understanding of history is that the Romans used the promise of  farmland as an incentive to be a soldier or centurion. Being fluent in the both ancient Greek and Latin, I can assure you that farming and soldiering were quite intertwined 2000 years ago.

If you want the modern perspective on this, you can watch Gladiator with Russell Crowe.

Ever heard of the Elysian Fields? What do you think those were? Fenway Park? Muslims have their fantasy of 99 black-eyed virgins, or whatever. The Romans liked the idea of growing wheat.

Study of the Thirty Years War will provide a slightly different but oddly similar picture.

Soldiers are good farmers. Soldiers were good farmers. Soldiers can be good farmers. Soldiers are farmers. What am I missing?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
totoneila on May 26, 2006 - 2:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello Oil CEO,

Thxs for the historical info addition to the discussion.  Any sane soldier would prefer 'No Thanks--I like Empty Tanks' to the alternative.  Hopefully, this offers our best chance to avert the '3 Days of the Condor' scenario and will set us on a course of Heinberg's Powerdown.  Recall the retired generals reminding the active military staff to re-examine their Pledge to the Constitution, not their willingness to follow Presidential orders.  It seems this would be our last chance to avert the worst.  I hate it when global forces are left hanging on such a precariously frayed thin string. Yikes!

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

231 comments on E85: Spinning Our Wheels

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version