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261 comments on DrumBeat: May 23, 2006
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261 comments on DrumBeat: May 23, 2006
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Also makes a good primer for those new to depletion/peak oil, and promises to be a continuing series.
Read it here:
Part I: Too Little Oil or Too Much Money?
Part II: We Can't Repeal the Laws of Thermodynamics
I am currently having a debate elsewhere with somebody who thinks there has been an oil co. conspiracy to stop the renewable energies becoming widespread, and in particular solar energy.
So if anybody has some links regarding the economics of solar PV technology it would be much appreciated!
www.solarbuzz.com
cheers, marotti
BTW, Good Morning America is devoting most of the program Wednesday morning to stories on the oil industry.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aWESsJvt6CFE&refer=asia
The WHO is considering issuing a pandemic alert.
If I read the story correctly, six of the seven victims are dead already.
After reading this story, my daughter, a graduate student in forensic genetics, said she is going out to stock up on food supplies.
Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response (EPR)
Avian influenza - situation in Indonesia - update 14
23 May 2006
The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed an additional case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case occurred in a 32-year-old man. He developed symptoms on 15 May and died on 22 May.
The case is part of a family cluster in the Kubu Sembelang village, Karo District, of North Sumatra. The man is the seventh member of an extended family to become infected with the H5N1 virus and the sixth to die. An additional person, who was the first member of the family to fall ill, died of respiratory disease on 4 May. No specimens were taken prior to her burial and the cause of her death cannot be determined. However, as her clinical course was compatible with H5N1 infection, epidemiologists at the outbreak site include this woman as the initial case in the cluster.
The newly confirmed case is a brother of the initial case. Specimens were taken on 21 May and flown the same day to Jakarta. Tests run overnight confirmed his infection. His 10-year-old son died of H5N1 infection on 13 May. The father was closely involved in caring for his son, and this contact is considered a possible source of infection.
Although the investigation is continuing, preliminary findings indicate that three of the confirmed cases spent the night of 29 April in a small room together with the initial case at a time when she was symptomatic and coughing frequently. These cases include the woman's two sons and a second brother, aged 25 years, who is the sole surviving case among infected members of this family. Other infected family members lived in adjacent homes.
All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness. Although human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the search for a possible alternative source of exposure is continuing.
Both the Ministry of Health and WHO are concerned about the situation in Kubu Sembelang and have intensified investigation and response activities. Priority is now being given to the search for additional cases of influenza-like illness in other family members, close contacts, and the general community. To date, the investigation has found no evidence of spread within the general community and no evidence that efficient human-to-human transmission has occurred.
Analysis of viruses
Full genetic sequencing of two viruses isolated from cases in this cluster has been completed by WHO H5 reference laboratories in Hong Kong and the USA. Sequencing of all eight gene segments found no evidence of genetic reassortment with human or pig influenza viruses and no evidence of significant mutations. The viruses showed no mutations associated with resistance to the neuraminidase inhibitors, including oseltamivir (Tamiflu).
The human viruses from this cluster are genetically similar to viruses isolated from poultry in North Sumatra during a previous outbreak.
I have agreed with everything I've read that you've posted. However if 20% of the population dies and the rest locks themselves up and does not travel for a 2 year pandemic that would affect demand of energy and supply of petroleum products. It is just as or more relevant than all the economic discussions or war discussions. Energy pervades our economy and many things change it.
Matt
"The World Health Organization says a cluster of bird flu cases in Indonesia may have been caused by human-to-human transmission."
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/05/24/indonesia.birdflu/
We could only be lucky if it is a conspiracy.
No kidding, all this great discussion of global warming and peak oill will suddenly seem pointless if millions are sick, quarantined, and/or panicked.
There are fewer of us than is immediately apparent. There are about 200 regular posters and another 1000 semi-regular/lurkers/whatever. This is a small bunch. We better be strong. Would anyone like to dispute my numbers? I'd be very interested in hearing other estimates and explanations.
Intense contact may have caused human-human transmission; not the casual contact that spreads flu in our society.
Intense contact would include sex, contact with vomit, kissing, and other similar modes. Single human-human transmission of avain flu has been recorded before between husband & wife.
he said that this wasn't it, no need to order extra MRE's and duct tape yet.... but he explained genetic drift and shift to me as it relates specifically to this virus - and said when "it" happens, it isn't going to be pretty...1918 with jet travel in the mix?