Actually, before last year, both as far as total storms and hurricanes, the annual predictions tracked pretty well.
Anyone have any info on why that happened?  Were there any changes in models, etc., or perhaps has the climate changed out from under the models they're using?  Or maybe it's just that predicting the weather isn't so exact....
From my readings there appears to be a discrepancy in views between meteorologists and climatologists. The meteorological community either tends to deny global warming or, if it is even occurring, does not believe it is having any significant impact at this time. The climatologists tend to believe in global warming and that it is already showing impacts. Since these forecasts come from meteorologists, it would not be unusual for them to be discounting global warming and caught by surprise. What would most likely change that mood in the meteorological community would be several straight years of high intensity storms.
Its not that the meterorlogical community denies global warming, but rather there is a political muzzle at NOAA.
The neocons have appointed a landman from Midland, Texas to head up the agency. While I'm sure that he is a good friend of GWB, it seems a rather peculiar choice. I'm hoping that now Exxon has changed top management they will abandon their insane attempt to suppress global warming data, but I wouldn't count on it because they own through Carter Coal, a subsidiary, the second largest coal reserves in the world.
GWB better put a muzzle on Pat Robertson too.  He said that he was talking to GOD and that god is predicting a typoon for the Pacific this year.  I just thought the planet was pissed off.  I guess the big guy upstairs is too.