<New Urbanism and the rebuilding of Mississippi The Oil Drum DrumBeat: May 24, 2006>

55 comments on Can we decide weather to be hopeful?

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smekhovo on May 24, 2006 - 12:45am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Last year's forecast was so inaccurate that it's surprising this year's is taken seriously.
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isaiah on May 24, 2006 - 1:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
precisely what i was thinking.  these talking heads are quite useless for providing any meaningful discussion or prediction of such chaotic phenomena.  
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SocraticGadfly on May 24, 2006 - 5:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Actually, before last year, both as far as total storms and hurricanes, the annual predictions tracked pretty well.
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Twilight on May 24, 2006 - 7:45am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Anyone have any info on why that happened?  Were there any changes in models, etc., or perhaps has the climate changed out from under the models they're using?  Or maybe it's just that predicting the weather isn't so exact....
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GreyZone on May 24, 2006 - 10:52am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
From my readings there appears to be a discrepancy in views between meteorologists and climatologists. The meteorological community either tends to deny global warming or, if it is even occurring, does not believe it is having any significant impact at this time. The climatologists tend to believe in global warming and that it is already showing impacts. Since these forecasts come from meteorologists, it would not be unusual for them to be discounting global warming and caught by surprise. What would most likely change that mood in the meteorological community would be several straight years of high intensity storms.
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oilmanbob on May 24, 2006 - 5:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Its not that the meterorlogical community denies global warming, but rather there is a political muzzle at NOAA.
The neocons have appointed a landman from Midland, Texas to head up the agency. While I'm sure that he is a good friend of GWB, it seems a rather peculiar choice. I'm hoping that now Exxon has changed top management they will abandon their insane attempt to suppress global warming data, but I wouldn't count on it because they own through Carter Coal, a subsidiary, the second largest coal reserves in the world.
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DelusionaL on May 27, 2006 - 7:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
GWB better put a muzzle on Pat Robertson too.  He said that he was talking to GOD and that god is predicting a typoon for the Pacific this year.  I just thought the planet was pissed off.  I guess the big guy upstairs is too.
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kjmclark on May 24, 2006 - 8:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"Last year, forecasters initially predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, with seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes, and three to five of those hurricanes being major, with winds of at least 111 mph.

"The next Atlantic hurricane season could produce up to 16 named storms, six of them major hurricanes, suggesting another active year but not the record pounding of 2005, scientists said Monday.

"Some parts of the Gulf Coast are only starting to rebuild from Hurricane Katrina, the worst of last year's record 28 named storms, 15 of which were hurricanes, seven of them Category 3 or higher." AP

So, in reality, the hurricane center is predicting a stronger hurricane season than last year! ;-)

It's a strange spin the the MSM puts on the hurricane forecasts. The prediction is for a worse season than was predicted last year, but they spin it as "it won't be as bad as last year." I suppose they leave the scarier version for the Enquirer.

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Twilight on May 24, 2006 - 9:33am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Whenever you see anything in the MSM, ask yourself "what is it they want me to believe, and why?".  Remember, it is not news.  And you're right, this is a more severe forcast than last year, which was not worth a hoot.  Since I don't have any more information that would lead me to think they've made improvements, I'm not going to pay much attention to this forecast at all.  Hell, the season is almost upon us, "predicting" isn't that useful anyway.  What would you do with the information?
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totoneila on May 25, 2006 - 1:55am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello Kjmclark,

Your quote: "I suppose they leave the scarier version for the Enquirer."

....or for the insurance companies yanking coverage along the East Coast:

http://www.finalcall.com/artman/publish/article_2629.shtml

Excerpt:
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In the meantime, the Allstate Insurance Company has decided to cancel, or not renew, insurance policies for 28,000--roughly 3.11 percent--of their 900,000 New York customers. According to a New York Daily News story published on Apr. 23, one other insurer, MET, has declined taking new business in the eight so-called hurricane counties, which encompass the five boroughs, plus Nassau, Westchester and Suffolk.

"It's not right--and it's not fair--and it's time New York gets tough on regulating these out of control insurers," argues N.Y. State Sen. Jeff Klein (D-Bronx/Westchester), in a press release...."Brooklyn consumers are running scared," Mr. Vines admitted, adding, "This is out of control."
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Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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Seadragon on May 24, 2006 - 8:45am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
And to quote Max Mayfield, head of the Hurricane Center..."it only takes one."  One to drive through our refineries and knock out capacity for weeks/months/perhaps years. Not sure if anyone has learned much meaningful from last year, except maybe if the government says "go to the Superdome,and wait for a rescue," it might be a good idea to bug out.
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55 comments on Can we decide weather to be hopeful?

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