<Will biofuels always be hopeless? The Oil Drum DrumBeat: May 27, 2006>

97 comments on More on biofuels

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phineas gage on May 26, 2006 - 11:31am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
As noted in Pollan's book "An Omnivore's Dilemma", America produces way more corn than needed.  so much in fact that corn syrup is for all intents and purposes free, and thus it's added into everything we eat.  The movie Supersize Me noted that only something like 5 items on McDonald's menu did not contain sugar in one form or another, again, bc/ it costs essentially nothing to add a few grams of corn syrup to say your hamburger bun to give it a little sweetness. The hamburger bun (not the big mac, the basic hamburger) contains 6 grams of sugar. Perhaps we are just seeing more of this unnecesary surplus corn used for ethanol rather than corn syrup.  America can stand to lose a lot of corn in our food chain without suffering any ill effects.  In fact, if corn syrup becomes a little more expensive, perhaps we'll be a little healthier.  Ethanol from corn is probably still a very bad idea for many reasons, but my point is there is excess corn on the market.

Another point based on this phrase:

The transient nature of public attention being what it is, we seem already to have reached a stage of acquiescence* to the idea of $70 oil. Though we don't have quite as many pundits this year appearing to reassure us that we will be back to $30 oil as there were last year

I remember Michael Lynch's prediction in 2004 that oil prices will average $25 or $30 in 2005, and they were of course about twice that much.  couldn't find a prediction from him for 2006 myself.  Has he made such a prediction?

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Dot on May 26, 2006 - 3:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I remember Michael Lynch's prediction in 2004 that oil prices will average $25 or $30 in 2005, and they were of course about twice that much.  couldn't find a prediction from him for 2006 myself.  Has he made such a prediction?

Energy Resources link

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peakearl on May 26, 2006 - 4:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Take this link, and scroll down to the Questions & Answers link, hear Lynch say in Sept 2004 that in a year prices will be below $30 because "all the factors keeping prices high today are short term."

http://www.webcasting.com/houston/

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peakearl on May 26, 2006 - 5:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I know the above isn't about 2006 (apart from his "short-term factors" comment suggesting he figured below 30 for an extended period), but it certainly shows how he views things. Maybe he realized that the more he makes predictions, the more his credibility suffers.
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frenk26 on October 24, 2006 - 5:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
One of the constraints on biodiesel will be the low penetration rate of diesel passenger vehicles in the North American market. For example, VW sold just 29,000 diesel powered cars in the USA last year. Diesels took just 3.2% of the US market last year. Contrast that with the situation in Europe, where more than half the new cars sold are diesels.
Diesels have been held back in North America by the high concentrations of sulfur in fuel. Sulfur poisons catalytic converters. Its oxides are corrosive and increase the concentrations of particulates (sooty smoke) in the exhaust. Diesel cars have been unable to meet the emissions standards in five states, including CA and NY.

The advent of low sulfur diesel this fall would have changed this situation, except that EPA continues to stack the deck against diesels in passenger cars. The upper limit of sulfur in diesel will be going from 500 ppm to 15 ppm, which would have opened the door to European engines and emissions control technology for the 2007 model year. However, EPA has mandated that diesel cars must meet the same emissions standards as passenger cars, beginning with the 2007 model year. Sounds fair, but it's a big technological problem.

Diesel engines typically return 25-40% better fuel economy than gasoline engines. One of the main reasons is the higher energy content of the fuel, mentioned by HO. The combustion process can normally be optimised to minimise NOx (oxides of nitrogen) or minimise unburned hydrocarbons, but it's inherently difficult to minimise them both

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frenk26 on November 9, 2006 - 6:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Ikivo SVG   
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BobCousins on May 27, 2006 - 4:16am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
On Sun Aug 28, 2005, Mike Lynch provided a prediction for 2006 Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
I believe (note the verb) that the price of WTI will drop to $40 by Jan 1, but stay between $30 and $40.

To be fair, his predictions have still been slightly better than Simmons. I don't worry too much about predictions though, I pay more attention to the underlying model, and for prices,  I don't think anyone even has a model.

Having said that, if rock oil follows whale oil prices, there is a price hike before the peak (like what we have seen?), and then prices stay around the same high level through the peak and after. I guess that when price reaches a certain threshold demand drops off a cliff.

The key word in that scenario was "if" ;-)

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twicker on May 27, 2006 - 10:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Quick thing to note with our amazing amount of corn:

We make so much because we subsidize it heavily. Back in 2002, I remember hearing on NPR that you could buy a boxcar full of corn for less than the cost of transporting that boxcar full of corn (this is why our beef is almost completely "grain-fed" -- read "corn-fed").

If we did away with the subsidies, corn would suddenly become substantially more expensive -- and supplies would, accordingly, drop.

Thus, corn's not the most efficient source; it's just the most heavily subsidized. I'd personally rather go for efficiency, but that requires changing some very fundamental politics (and, at the end of the day, the politics do matter).

Yours,
Thomas Wicker

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Magnus Redin on May 27, 2006 - 12:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thus, corn's not the most efficient source; it's just the most heavily subsidized. I'd personally rather go for efficiency, but that requires changing some very fundamental politics (and, at the end of the day, the politics do matter).

Have you thought about changing from command to market economy in the USA? (Only half joking...)

Seriously, it makes stupid inefficiencies obvious.
I have an understandig for short term subsidies to develop a technology or industrial base that can be expected to be needed in a few years but running a market manipulation for years on end probably creates enourmous inefficiencies.

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97 comments on More on biofuels

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