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What we really need to start talking about and researching is a good way to use less energy on a large scale. There just can't be a good solution if we keep burning through energy at the rate we are.
incidentally we have base load power renewables
The Severn barrage proposed in 1938 [I'll check the date when I'm back home] had 2 tidal pools for continuous power
and pumped energy storage. People have been finding excuses to refuse this, and other tidal stations for 60 years minimum.
The energy crisis is going to require many different technical efforts and social changes (including large reductions in energy use like you said) because there is no magic replacement for fossil fuels. To reject wind and solar on the basis that they aren't an on-demand energy source is a poor argument.
I remember reading that you need 8 MW of wind to replace 1 MW of coal/nuclear baseload because of the intermittency. At this ratio, to replace a single 1GW nuclear station you would need 3 or 4 thousand monster turbines at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds, not to mention vast quantities of steel and concrete, an army of installers and maintainers, and a legal team to shut down objections from angry country dwellers.
So much for sustainable, and thats just replacing a single power station!
"Vandalize the countryside". Yes, some people's aesthetics will be sacrificed, others will come to like them (particularly with time). Some Icelanders oppose planting trees, even though Iceland was covered with trees "from the sea to the mountains" before their ancestors cut them all down for sheep. They prefer their environmental stripmine. OTOH, the Dutch like and try to preserve their old windmills.
All in what you are used to !
A wind turbine can replace the energy used in it's manufacture in about a year or so, with 20+ more years to add to the economic surplus.
And I STRONGLY suspect that lawyers are a renewable and sustainable resource :-P
Newer wind energy converters now have up to 6 MW.
It makes a lot of sense to build wind parks offshore. First of all the wind is stronger there, it blows more steadily, and the wind energy convertes obviously don't vandalize the landscpae out there.
A lot of wind power has also been built next to highways and motorways recently.
The "limousine liberals" of Cape Cod island Massachusetts strongly support renewable neergy, except when a proposed offshore wind farm might clutter their view of the ocean.
Computer simulations show very small images out at the horizon.
Obviously, the sea has to be quite flat for this to work.
As always, there is NIMB attitude. Each small village demands underground cabling, but for a 380 kV line, that is exorbitantly expensive. As a result, it takes 10 years to build a new power line - the wind power is growing much faster.
The back of the envelope cost for Megawatt class Windmills is about $1 USD per Watt. (.54 GBP)
To replace a 1GW power station with Wind would cost roughly $8 Bn USD
Now I don't know if you've priced a new Nuclear Power plant lately, but a while back I Googled about to find out how much they cost. link
In other words, Wind costs 1/4 to 1/3 per watt of installed nameplate capacity.
Let's assume you are correct, and that the real ratio is 8:1 to handle the baseline load. That mans that you need to spend twice as much on windmills as you do on a Nuke Plant.
Of course, it takes 7 to 10 years to complete a Nuke plant, and there is NO electricity for those years, and the interest on the loans to build the thing just keeps rising. Then once you have completed it, you need to fuel it, and we have only found about 50 years of good EROEI uranium, (At present use rates) and as the purity of the remaining ore goes down, the amount of fossil fuels to mine and refine it goes up. THEN, at the plant end of life, you have to decommission it and store the waste for several times longer than recorded human civilization.
With a wind farm, you can begin electricity production as you add towers, and they economically pay for themselves in less than a year. There is no ongoing fuel cost, minimal downtime for maintenance, and when they wear out you can re-use the tower (Which is a significant portion of the cost) with a new generator and blades. If you want to decommission one, you show up with a crane and take it away to melt it down to make a new ones.
The notion of thousands of windmills somehow seems to creep people out, but compared to the scars on the planet caused by our use of fossil fuels I'd choose them in a heartbeat. Besides, maybe if we saw them every day we'd be more aware of our energy use.
Only the UK, Scandinavia and the Baltic countries are not part of the grid, but there are links as well from Denmark, Germany and Poland to Sweden.
The international links are not very strong now, but the EU is working on expanding them.
In the future, offshore wind parks in the North Sea, the Atlantic, the Baltic Sea, and Solar in Spain, Italy, southern France could provide a very reliable energy source for Europe.
to convert 'Frog mains' to UK mains
New report confirms UK has best wind in Europe
from the news item
"the chance of low wind speeds affecting 90% of the country only occur for one hour every five years, whilst the chance of wind turbines shutting down due to very high wind speeds only occurs in around one hour every 10 years. Other findings concluded that the wind conditions in the UK are significantly stronger than those in Denmark and Germany, making wind power a very real option and opportunity for the UK, as the country has 'the right kind of wind'."
Power storage in solar thermal generating systems is relatively simple: two tanks, a heat exchanger, and a pump.
"The proposed 15MWe Solar Tres plant in Spain will utilise a 16-hour molten-salt storage system to run on a 24-hour basis in the summertime."
Tanks size is limited only by economic factors. The tanks could be sized for more hours of storage.
More on molten salt here: Advantages of Using Molten Salt
In addition, solar thermal systems of this type can be used as a fuel-saving "booster" to existing steam-driven power stations by preheating the water before it enters the boiler: Stanwell Solar Thermal Power Project. Seems like this approach could be part of a transition strategy.
Similar systems could be used to supply or supplement process heat for manufacturing, reducing demand on fossil fuels.
Jeff Becker
Regarding the limits toward renewable energy, Ted Trainer has put up lots of research to analyse the current offer.
Note that personnaly I think that small scale wind turbines may be some kind of solution. Small scale wind turbines can be fixed using garage technology and can even be made by using scrapp copper, aluminium and steel.
I say scrap metal because I dont think we will be able to bring much solution before system collapse hapen because of the enormous inertia in the whole society. Scrap metal will be found in cars, houses, etc.
You have to think that when you will be implementing solution, the following wont be available : current systemic stability and working economy.
Wind and hydro turbines will be used for small scale application. See the hydro ones for grounding wheat or powering water pumps for daily consumption. Also some lightning may be available in some spot place but I doubt you will be able to find a led, fluorescent or event incandescent light bulb.
In fact I dont think no one really knows what is gona be available in the next decade or so. Heck, we almost cannot think clearly of what is gona be usefull.
Making a garden is a must but how do you preserve the food? I doa lot of home canning and one thing I can tell is that the snap lid has to be replaced each time you do a new can. That thingny has a rubber band on it. How are we gona be replacing those snap lid? What can be used in place of that? What were we using before glass and metal can?
Those are good questions.
Gaskets will be important for the forseeable future, the need to seal pipe joints, steam engine valve chests, water pumps, and canning jars will no doubt persist :-). They can be made from Latex rubber which is renewable, imported from the east on the sailing ships which may one day fill the seeways again. They can also be made here from bio-source plastic (maybe we will start with milkweed sap, or canola oil and start building up the hydrocarbon chains I have no idea, but it can be sorted out), bio-resin impregnated natural fibre, or even oil / NG based plastic, who cares if the eroei is <1 we are making a reuasable artifact of great value from it, not burning it.
"Green Plastics: An Intro. to the new science of Biodegradable Plastics" E.S. Stevens - Princeton U. Press, 2002
About half is on the chemistry of conventional polymers, thermosets and thermoplastics, and then segues into non-petrol based formulas and experiments (celophane, etc).. Great info.. gotta read it a couple more times to really get it..
Bob
Of course, now they tell you not to use those, because they aren't safe.
I wonder how practical canning will be in the long run. It takes a lot of energy, since everything has to be cooked and sterilized. Not to mention the cans, glass jars, seals, gaskets, and what have you.
Canning is a pretty recent invention; canned food was too expensive for ordinary folk to afford until mechanization made it cheaper and faster.
The pickling practiced by Asian cultures might be more practical, as long as salt is available.
For those who don't know, Carla died last year in her early 50's. She will be missed by many. She was truly one of the good people in the world.
Thanks and I will look for that book. Carla has a web site http://www.carlaemery.com/ with alot of stuff there. Her husband Don is carrying on with what she started and sent a hand written note thanking me for the order I placed. Don't see that much these days. And I think her 5 key lifestyle principles of Homesteading apply in the city or country.
An alternative is pumped storage with similar qualities, but not at a net energy gain. And the amount (total energy) stored in projects to date is fairly low, but this could be changed. High output for some hours is common.
I personally think that Wind,Solar and Hydro power are the best we'll ever have before we can figure out how to make fusion power happen. Although I fully support nuclear power I can only see it as a temporary solution unless we can make fission happen with something a lot more commonly available than Uranium. I think our Solar tech is a bit lacking but in some areas it can still beat the Wind.
Hydro power is indeed good for baseline energy production but Wind power is too erratic in nature. Wind power could be made to work properly if there was a way to store the power somehow. Flow batteries don't quite cut it imo and hydrogen technology isn't quite there yet as far as I know, but how about hydro power? I mean technically we could pump water up to some kind of large reservoirs and run the water down through hydro plants when we need the power. The question is that how horribly inefficient would that be? Pumping operations of that scale would probably cause some kind of erosion and if the water is salt water there could be a number of environmental problems perhaps but.. you have to start the line of thinking from somewhere.
If we could secure ourselves enough reliable electricity profuction we could always produce the various substances we absolutely need for various purposes. I am quite aware that the days of cheering for consumption are numbered and I think that this is a good thing, but I still think civilization does not have to fall but I sure won't be missing the modern form of capitalism.
Maintaining system stability is tricky stuff, and requires a certain amount of excess capacity. Of course, that's if the grid IS interconnected!
One of several pumped storage projects in operation today.
Effiency varies a bit depending upon equipment, but 15 MWh out for 19 MWh in would be a good #.
Sounds very much like SciFi and there are big issues ofcourse like where to get that water. I'm assuming here that running rivers of salt water would at the very least be bad for ground water. At least a project of this magnitude would give people some purpose.
Very interesting. How far could pumped storage be scaled down and make sense? Surely not to the household/neighborhood level? You engineering types might chime in... how many kwh are there in, say, 500 gallons of water....
specifically, if one used solar, wind, whatever, to fill a 500 gallon drum with water, then released the contents over a wheel, driving a generator, how much electricity could one produce?
The unanswered questions are how high the drop with 500 gallons and how long do you want power ?
Two farm ponds with, say, 50' (15 m) difference in elevation could store a fair amount of energy.
For a home, an attic (2 stories up) or concrete holding pond up a hillside with a below ground cistern might work well.
Does make me think, though, of all the kinetic energy that is represented in storm water runoff.
Micro-hydro...
Why don't we focus on vacuum thermos hot water tanks and such?
I visited the house of a retired fellow in WNC who had built an active/passive solar house (off grid). It was huge, I'd guess around 5000 sq. ft. open layout, small-ish greenhouse for passive solar, and partially built into a hill with good insulation. 3kW PV system with battery backup. He used 4 - 4X6 ft. flat panel colletors in the thermal system and had a 5000 gal tank (a discarded stainless steel milk vessel) in a super-well insulated room of it's own. He had a backup system (it was just a regular water heater) but said he never had to use it. It provided the heat for the house and the shower. He told me the tank would get up to 150 degree F. At the time he told me the equivalent energy that it held at that temperature but I've since forgotten, so I did some (literally back of an envelope) calculations.
5000 gallon tank
Assume 150*F to 80*F useable range (delta 70*F or ~39*C)
5000gal*(3.785Liter/1gal)(1000g/1L) 39degC * (4.185Joule/gram * degC) = 3089581950 Joules
3089581950 Joule (.00094978 BTU/Joule) = 2934423 BTU
Or... ~23.66 gallons of gasoline (based on BTU's) of storage if the tank is at 150 degrees F.
A crash program aimed at solar thermal heating would take a huge burden off of fossil supplies(since a lot of homes use natural gas, propane, or heating oil, some water heaters are propane or nat gas) and also the electrical grid (water heating, and some homes). I just tracked down some quick and dirty numbers... 43% of home energy cost is for Space Heating, and 16% for Water Heating. So that would represent a huge reduction in a home's fossil fuel usage.
The amoount of heat that collects in even the poorly insulated (insulated hell, it has holes in it!)sun-porch I'll be rebuilding this summer is quite impressive. If I can seal it and insulate it half decently, it will be an impressive heater this winter.
I've been looking into water storage tanks - there are some large plastic water tanks for agricultural use that might work well.
OK, you nitpickers, it's really 9.8 watts instead of 10, but we engineers don't need to mess with anything but pretty good estimates, right?
And, of course, you have to think about the pump/turbine/alternator efficiency, which at absolute best is maybe 90% and a lot less if very small (1kW)
I have a small pond 20 meters down from my house. And I have a great southern exposure nearby, so I am playing with the idea of a pumped storage system using a free cylinder stirling water pump that some people here are thinking of putting into production. As always, the concentrator is the $ problem. So that puts me right back at the biomass burner, which does look feasible. Around and around. Better start making some real decisions.
What percentage of requirements can be met, and how quickly the infrastructure can be put in place are the big questions.
Remember, tidal power is availabel for a few hours out of every 25 hours (The power peak rotates around the clock over the lunar month). So any peak # has to be multiplied by it's load factor, which is typically ~21% for US wind turbines and probably worse for tidal power.
A single nuclear plant could produce more than all the projects listed.
Where tidal power makes sense, go for it. But it is not even close to being a complete solution. Wind plus hydro (old + new) seem to be the best paths.
Yeah, but as you move up and down the coast, the time of high tide changes. If you install the things over a large enough area, it can average out, at least to a degree.
The 240MW tidal barrage at La Rance in France has been operating since 1966,and is producing 640 million kwh / year. That gives a load factor of around 30%.
A good use of the project, but it also distorts the load factor #s.