I notice that at the Berkshire Hathaway convention, Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger have announced that they are bearish on investing in ethanol.  Munger says that using ethanol for fuel seems "stupid" to him because it takes more energy to create than it produces as fuel.  Buffett said there are so many ethanol plants, existing or planned, that he doesn't see how they can all continue operating profitably.  And those are not going to be popular comments made in the heart of the Midwest...

MAJOR ALERT:  BUFFETT LOSES, DAN RATHER ENDORSES ETHANOL ON 60 MINUTES.  

As I write this, I have just finished watching the second segment of "60 Minutes" on CBS, dateline Sunday, May 7th, 2006, a report by Dan Rather on E85 Ethanol.  

It is now safe to say that those who have serious doubts about Ethanol have just lost the public debate on this issue.  

In the history of TV journalism, I have never seen such a complimentary report, such a fawning respect, and such an absolute play to all the right emotion of the American people on one specific idea.  Like or not now, it will be Ethanol.  But, how could you not LIKE IT?

In the report, Rather opened with the Brazilian example.  Within seconds we learn that, according to the report, "Ethanol had completely freed Brazil of expensive oil imports."  It was declared as clear as a jury verdict:  Brazils ethanol has been a complete success.  (no mention was made of Brazil's natural gas or it's home oil industry, including giant rigs offshore to assist in helping Brazil with energy security)

The the ploy to the "Heartland".  Sad photos of declining farm belt towns.  And then, like the ancient industrial mills of Britain's Coalbrookdale, rising on the plains, the "home brew" ethanol plants....and down to Earth true American co-ops running them!  Tons of "excess corn" carried in by tractor trailer, and a tour of the plant as it passed through the distilling process, where it becomes "beer", not the drinking kind, (opportunity for humor here), and then comes out, caught in a glass for Rather to show him what it looked like, clear as water!  It looked like the dawn of a new age, and rebirth of real America!

Before it would be allowed to cause any concern, in an outside photo of the plant where an exhaust stack could be seen,  Rather quickly pointed out that what was coming from that stack was "harmless steam, not pollution".  So touching this, has any news agency ever pointed that out about many of the cooling tower photos of fossil fuel plants....no mention of how the "more than 2000 degrees tempeture" mentioned earlier in the distilling process was achieved without making any smoke or pollution, no mention of a possible need for fresh water to run the process, no mention of any byproduct (is there any?).

And then down the stretch to the finish:  General Motors.  The standard photos of the nice big E85 trucks and SUV's (one wonders if E85 will actually only run in large vehicles, since GM never shows a small E85 car in it's promotions), rolling out on the car show floor, yellow and greens everywhere, and GM saying "E85 is here" there will be no need for advanced technology!

Buried in all the talk, it is barely mentioned, and I must give Rather credit for candor at least here, that "E85 may never make up more than a small portion of the total fuel cars consume, but it's a start."  But then, back to the tribute to the fuel that will save us....one rather dour Petroleum Executive said "we just don't want the risk of E85 making more promises than can be delivered and then underdelivering."  In the context of this report, he looked like someone who would have bet against the Wright Brothers being able to fly, a sad old timer out of the loop.

Of course, no mention was made of the fertilizer consumption, the natural gas used to make the fertilizer, the Diesel consumption in equipment, the process consumption, water, soil degradation, and on and on.....

After seeing this report, I myself, once a doubter, just want to go out and buy one of those stylish yellow and green big GM trucks and a fast stylish boat to tow behind it, and head for the lake.... and brag to the friends about how I can run it all on E85, after all,  it's clean, it's plentiful (or soon will be), I am helping the Amur I Can farmer, and givin' the finger to the OPEC gang who hate us....AND HERE'S WHAT'S COOLEST, I don't have to tolerate no new fangled technology, I don't have to drive some little funky hybrid thing...."It's morning in America....finally.....again......"

As the old Wall Street saying goes, "Don't bet against the tape."  Whether you know that E85 is a bit of a scam, even if you think it consumes more to make than it produces, and you know it can be nothing more than pure symbolism, don't now bet against it.  The American people now see it as the long promised savior fuel.  That argument is done, that verdict is in.
Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

Buffett's credibility versus Rather's credibility for anyone actually paying attention? Mano a mano? Buffett hands down [pun intended].

The key will be whether Buffett's comments get any airtime ... and whether the average American knows the difference between Warren Buffett and Jimmy Buffett.

Average Americans will listen to Dan Rather. Investors in ethanol plants are a lot more likely to listen to Warren Buffett.
In response to both RW's and Stuart's appreciated remarks, I can assure the TOD newbie that there are many average Americans in any Jimmy Buffet audience who both follow Warren's investing posture and have watched Rather for years before he retired.
I TIVO'd it and am watching it now and taking notes.

So far, the irony of a worker out there hacking down sugarcane by hand and then a picture of a big diesel-powered tractor harvesting corn in the U.S. did not get a mention. There was a brief shot of some cars in Brazil. No SUVs, no pickups. Gee, I wonder how Brazil was able to get off of foreign oil? Must have been that strong commitment they made to ethanol.

RR

Excellent. Look at Prof. Goose's NYT post on Brazilian gas prices.
Where is the post? I read the NYT link in the OP, but it was only about U.S. gas prices. Was there another link somewhere?

Thanks,

RR

Sorry, I was just referring to the price of gas in Brazil, which may only have been in the graphic in the print version of the NYT. Brazil has high gas prices, due to taxes, I believe. Something you rarely hear about when the politicians are talking about how Brazil went from 70% export dependent to 100% independent thru ethanol production.
I just finished a blog entry on the 60 Minutes piece:

60 Minutes - The Ethanol Solution.

I don't think ADM could have done better had they written the piece themselves. No attempt at balance whatsoever. No indication that there is anything controversial about it.

RR

Brilliant rebuttal.  Now if you could just condense it down to a bumper sticker . . .
How about:
"Ethanol: The hole in our energy donut plan."

Bad graphics. You know I love you. You need to re-stage that. All it will take is a dozen pastries and a digital camera. Those weren't even donuts, you crazy...
It was an Archer Midland Daniels commercial. Yay!

It reminded me of the recent 60 Minutes stories on coal-to-gas in Montana and tar-sands in Alberta.

Don't worry, we can just keep on motoring! Everything's under control ...

Good piece, Roger. Though I disagree. You can kill ethanol with two facts adeptly pursued. I think you know what those are.

Yes, I hope folks took my heading as a bit of satire....if I had to bet my money, indeed I would take Buffett's word over Rather's....however, once the popular, and I mean MSM POPULAR gives the average folks what looks like a way out of any real change (and that's what will appeal to the average working joe or the office girl....you just stop at the quick mart and fill, just like the Universe intended, you don't really care with what...I think we should just call all motor fuel "go juice" and not confuse folks with thoughts of what it is made of, they really don't care, as long as makes the car "go"),  they will take it, and now anyone expressing doubts will be replied to with, "but didn't you see 60 Minutes?"

I will never forget how I figured out the giant consumption boom was upon on us....it was back in the early 1980's, and I still recall two harbingers of wha was to come:
*There was a Sunday "Feature" section in the Louisville newspaper, that ran an article...I can almost recall the opening lines of this "lifestyle" feature, it said "If you think the ultra rich are driving Rolls Royce's, Bentley's or Mercedes sedans, you would be wrong.  The big ticket ride for the ultra chic and wealthy are now Jeep Grand Waggoner's, Land Rovers, and Suburbans, trucks with the room to carry Sam Walton's dogs."  It was the first inclination of what would be the SUV rage....who could have known...
*The other was, as it happens, a peice on "60 Minutes".  I had just bought my first VCR, and was looking for something to tape to test it out.  Most TV is almost unbearable to me, so I chose the one show I knew, and set it for Sunday at 7PM.  On that show, there was a feature piece about the 12 cylinder Italian super car, The Lamborghini Countach.  When I saw the promo at the opening of the show, I thought, "uh oh, they are going to carve this one up and spit it out", given the shows somewhat anti business and liberal reputation in those days, I was sure that the pollution issue, the fuel consumption issue, the safety issue involved in selling pretty much under the radar of the U.S. regulations (due to the car's low sales volume) a 200 mile per hour car for highway use....I was astounded when they air the piece....a fancier of the Ultra performance high end super exotic Italian car must have been gleaming with pride and joy...."60 Minutes" rode the Autostrada in Italy at 180 to 190 mph, and waxed almost poetic about the sound, the art, the fury of this great dream machine!  
The car itself had already been around since 1971, crafted by Bertone coachbuilding in Italy before the fuel crisis and oil embargo days, and was hanging in production of  few hundred a year, as a moribound and at the the time of the "60 Minutes" piece, Lamborghini was on the edge of insolvency.

After the "60 Minutes piece, the car began to appear in every movie and commercial, and was almost sure to be cast in any music video made in the early 1980's....and sales of a VERY EXPENSIVE ULTRA EXOTIC car TOOK OFF.

Such is the power of the mainstream media in America.  So, sadly, on the E85 debate, I do stick to my guns....GM and ADM along with the farm lobby have won the public debate.  The U.S. average citizen will not figure out until it's too late to matter that E85 did virtually nothing to save our nation from having to make much bigger changes on the energy front.  The only thing I regret is that by then, we may have wasted our great treasure of natural gas on this and on the tar sands boondoggle.  It is sheer insanity in a way, that all we would have to do is a bit of REAL re-engineering and creative design and we could avoid at least that.
Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

So far ethanol plants have been designed with the idea that a cheap fossil fuel(nat gas or coal) will be available for decades to come. Little has been invested in energy efficency at these plants as the steam venting clearly showed. They are like Langley and the airplane he built with government money. It never flew. It took self financed innovators to show the world what worked. Not everything Langley's plane had was a failure. He built a very light radial engine which became the prefered engine type up until the jet age.
There may be some country bumpkin out there experimenting in his barn with ways to improve both the energy efficency and money efficiency of ethanol production which blows ADM and Cargill away.
Why not combine them with a garbage incinerator, district heating or absorbtion district cooling?
The largest ethanol plant in Sweden is colocated with a biomass district heating plant.
It doesn't work that way in chemical engineering.  The easy stuff was done decades ago.  You can't garage tinker anymore.

Besides, it's probable that the plant operators are completely aware of the inefficiencies.  They just do not want to spend the money for the fixes.  When a company wants to cut costs, the first thing that goes is maintenance.