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Firstly, his arguments relating to reserve growth here, where he states "We start in 1980 with 667Gb of reserves in the world. Over the course of 24 years (1980-2004), we pump out 609Gb of that, leaving us with 58Gb. To that we add the amount discovered in the period 1980-2004 (i.e. 339Gb), giving us a total of 397Gb in 2004. Clearly, something has gone seriously haywire because the actual reserves in 2004 are 1189Gb, i.e. 792Gb more than we should have if discovery is the only way to increase reserves."
Second, his decision to stop posting anything new because he has come 'to the conclusion that peak oil is a non-event, which has no significant impact on [his] daily life'. (My own view is that this probably marks the peak ;-)
Finally, can anyone point me to a source which gives expenditure by oil companies on exploration and research over the last, say, twenty years. Some time back I came across the assertion that expenditure on exploration is much less than it was (20?) years ago; I was challenged about it and I'd like to be able to back it up.
This could last for a short while, but eventually and inevitably the gas line sputters and delivery of fuel slows, regardless of our effort on the throttle. Then the slide begins, and it is from this position, looking in the rear view mirror, that we both appreciate why (at the time) all that peaking seemed like a non-event, and why we should have maybe eased up on the throttle earlier.
"M. King Hubbert's Lower 48 Prediction Revisited"
By Jeffrey J. Brown (Westexas) & Khebab
http://www.energybulletin.net/13575.html
HL = Hubbert Linearization Qt = Total Estimated Recoverable Reserves
Several large regions/countries have peaked in the vicinty of 50% of Qt (based on HL): Texas; Lower 48; Total US; Russia and the North Sea. None--not one--has shown higher production than what was observed in the vicinity of 50% of Qt.
The world is at 50% of Qt. Oil prices are trading in a record high (nominal) trading range. World oil production is down slightly, but it is down, and US imports are down substantially since late February of this year.
i.e. His 15 minutes of limited fame came and went without anyone paying any lasting attention. La-dee-dah.
And about his reserve growth post -- he cherry picks his data to make himself look like he is on to something.