I think you have just brilliantly summed up Reality v Cornucopia and pointed out where those in the best position to know are putting their money. IMHO it is just a matter of time before countries sitting on the resources start overtly (as opposed to covertly?) conserving for their future generations thus accelerating Westexas' predictions.
Appreciate your comments.  It's not just BP either, here's more of the same from XOM:
The company also spent $5 billion to buy back stock in the quarter, and promised to buy back $6 billion in stock in the second quarter. Oil companies like Exxon Mobil have been attacked for spending hefty amounts to buy back stock and pay dividends rather than reinvesting those profits to boost production.
Full news item: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060427/bs_nm/energy_exxon_earns_dc
Such actions by big oil provides a clear indication that, whatever they say in public, their strategy in spending the majority of their earnings on stock buybacks and dividends (as opposed to exploration and addressing industry wide capacity constraints) points to an industry which itself considers that the best times lie in the past.  In effect their actions point to slow liquidation of the company.