25 comments on Peak Oil Letter from Energy Minister
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25 comments on Peak Oil Letter from Energy Minister
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So the implication is that if all available technology is thrown at all major fields, annual output could be maintained or even pushed up for a few years. This might keep crude prices at 50-70 dollars/bl for maybe 3-4 years. Quite probably little more would be done in terms of fuel efficiency, renewables, etc. Thereafter, depletion rates would be in double figures and as the fool's paradise comes to an end, oil prices would explode and the world's ecomomies could quickly tip into depression. This dreadful outcome could well happen unless the messages of the likes of Cambridge Energy, IEA, etc., which seem to be the ones that governments like to hear are debunked.
Why, when all that is required is a rudimentary understanding of Physics and Geology do TPTB continue to insist on situation normal?
Why do both Government, Editors of papers of record such as the Times, Sunday Times, The Daily Telegraph and associated Economists still insist that the oil price is a blip?
Why do industry heavyweights effectively deny PO, insist that technology will reverse the problem and `other sources' will come on stream in time?
Share prices.
Share buy-backs can be described as slow motion liquidation. If you cannot find suitable candidates for exploration and development, if you cannot access Nationalised Oil Provinces, then as a Director, you have a fiscal responsibility to the share holders to return an investment on capital plus interest. If this means liquidation, then liquidation it is. You cannot collapse the share price, you must buy back at market rates.
Other alternatives are actual Exp /Dev drilling campaigns . Some of this is happening (within the constraints of rig utilisation, personnel availability, access to candidate oil provinces and acreage in Nation States)
While doing this, the last thing you need is a Cassandra or other Prophets rocking the boat.
What people fail to remember is that there is no moral obligation on any Oil Company Director to `find more oil for the people' or save a nation from harm. There is only one imperative: A fiscal responsibility to the share holders.
The problem is that the Government is still really only hearing one side of the argument and it is that of the Establishment.
It is not convenient right now for a Government to listen to the PO argument.
It would collapse the stock market.
In addition - advertising. If we look through almost any newspaper it would seem that some 25% of their advertising is coming from the auto industry and another decent chunk from the travel / hotel industry. Much of the products being promoted represent discretionary spending i.e. one does not have to go on holiday, buy a new car (when a 2nd hand model would suffice) etc.
If / when PO really is widely accepted and understood it would surely greatly impact Joe Public's spending patterns leading to a major downturn in income by suppliers of discretionary goods and services and hence a big downturn in advertising revenue for the MSM. The newspapers are hardly likely to want to upset their best paying customers by drawing attention to PO before it becomes too obvious to ignore. The party therefore continues.