<On Mining Energy, Chinese Coal and Wisconsin Wind The Oil Drum DrumBeat: June 12, 2006>

48 comments on Recent VMT and Fuel Economy Trends

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phineas gage on June 12, 2006 - 8:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
http://www.eere.energy.gov/state_energy_program/update/images/fuel_econ_year.jpg

This graph suggests that rapid changes in fuel efficiecny can occur during a time of economic stagflation as this is exactly what happened in the 70' & 80's.  Granted the lifespan of a car is longer today so the impact will not be seen as quickly but if there are several models on the market today that get 40+ mpg, why couldn't there be a gradual shift over 10 to 15 years from our (U.S.) current efficiency of 22 mpg to 30 or 40 mpg?  Actually I hope we abandon the car as the centerpiece of our transportation infrastructure and choose mass transit and local communities as a response to peak oil but I fear Americans will try to keep the suburban "lifestyle" as long as possible.    

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Stuart Staniford on June 12, 2006 - 12:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
That picture is the fuel economy of new vehicles (I think).  My point is that this graph can be a bit misleading because the volume of new vehicles goes down at the same time the average fuel economy of them goes up, so the deployed vehicle fleet efficiency doesn't go up as much as the new vehicle efficiency might lead one to hope.
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phineas gage on June 12, 2006 - 12:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
/ the deployed vehicle fleet efficiency doesn't go up as much as the new vehicle efficiency might lead one to hope./

Indeed, the question becomes how quickly could a turnover occur.  Certainly not as fast as it was in the 70's and 80's as cars are on the road longer but you've put forth the argument several times that if decline rates are modest say 2 to 3% society might be able to absorb that.  Could we not improve fleet efficiency by 2 or 3% a year as gas guzzlers are slowly retired in favor of more efficient vehicles?

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Oil CEO on June 12, 2006 - 2:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
According to Peter Tertzakian, every single new car sold in the US would have to be a hybrid to make any real difference.
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ThatsItImout on June 12, 2006 - 5:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I would want to see the context of the remark by Peter Tertzakian.

For example, if a sizable percent of the fleet were converted to a non hybrid Diesel model, example of what is currently available in Europe below...
http://www.vwvortex.com/artman/publish/printer_319.shtml

Would that not have an effect on fuel consumption in a big way?

Several posters here in the debates about bio-fuels have also pointed out that bio Diesel has much better energy return on energy invested than ethanol, but is only held up by the fact that most Americans do not like Diesel cars AT ALL.  But, if fuel prices continue to climb, a 70 mile per gallon small "suburb saver" begins to make sense.  With a hybrid electric drive or some version of hydrualic hybrid, this could be theoretically raised to around 100 miles per gallon, and with plug hybrid as batteries improve, the sky becomes the limit.

Would a person be willing to accept this kind of solution if the other choice is to abandon a quarter million dollar or more investment in the suburbs, their friends and social network, schools lifestyle, etc.,  and flee to a cave or shed in the country?  
oh yeah.
The suburbs ain't going anywhere soon.....

Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout

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odograph on June 12, 2006 - 6:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think the main thing is that Tertzakian sees the oil crunch coming in the next ten years.  None of the current hybrid plans are going to foster a replacement fast enough to work with that timeframe.

We'd need to make every new car a high efficiency model (be it hybrid or something else), and we'd have to enforce retirement of older guzzlers.

Is that going to happen?

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Oil CEO on June 12, 2006 - 6:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Exactly. There are something like 220 million cars in the US. You can't just replace them all when the price of gasoline gets to high. You have to build them before you can sell them. I will look up Tertzakian's passage for you when I get home, Roger.
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AlanfromBigEasy on June 12, 2006 - 8:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hey Folks !

Transportation is only 2/3 of US Oil Consumption.  Private auto use is about 9 million of 21 nillion barrels/day.

Cutting 9 million in half would be a good first step. BUT IT WOULD NOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM

-4.5 out of 21 is (round #s) just a 21% reduction in US oil use.  If, as seems likely to me, the US will be forced by economics to take a higher than average reduction in world wide oil use. this might be equal to a global -14% reduction in world oil production.  Perhaps 5 years past peak ?

A graph of US oil use by demand type.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/Dem_image_US_co ns_sector.htm

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48 comments on Recent VMT and Fuel Economy Trends

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