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40 comments on Goldman Likes Wind. The Kennedys and DoD Don't?
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40 comments on Goldman Likes Wind. The Kennedys and DoD Don't?
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GAIA Host Collective
Since wind mills make electricity and very, very little US electricity is made with imported oil (60% of 2%?), arguments about wind saving oil are false.
Frankly, I see wind as a waste of capital, a wealth transfer from taxpayers to developers, and a nuisance for grid operators. Plus, they are unattractive.
For a case study of the downsides of wind power from an operational viewpoint, see this report from E.On, the world's largest operator:
http://www.eon-energie.de/bestellsystem/frameset_eng.php?choosenBu=eonenergie&choosenId=1725
Note that to meet the becalming of Europe, the utility needed 4 to 6 large nuclear or coal plants on standby to pick up the load.
Sorry, but I'm unconvinced that wind power is largely a waste of money and a diversion from real solutions. My criticisms are founded on hard numbers, real facts, and professional experience. I will grant that they reduce demand for natural gas to fuel electric generators which we've gone overboard building in the first place.
Remove the subsidies coming from my pocket and I'd be happy to see wind developers compete and prove me wrong. I just council against depending on wind as a critical component of our energy policy.
Can't argue with about the ugliness of coal strip mines!
We need to keep pushing the envelope on wind. As far as off peak power goes, we need to move to strategies for using that off peak power by recharging sources that don't need steady power. If I can recharge my plug in at night, I don't care whether or not that power was intermittent.
The capital costs per kwh are coming down as well so at least progress is being made. One thing is for sure, coal will destroy much of what is good about this planet if things continue as they are.
In the meantime, I have to worry about keeping the lights on.
Here's an interesting discussion on energy "subsidies" from June 11:
http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/
But we need to be cautious about our choices as many of them are energy intensive to make. Wind turbines, with their tall steel masts, carbon fiber blades, steel gears and generators, require lots of high quality heat, transportation and machine tools to make.
We need to push on all fronts, rationally evaluating costs and benefits, discarding those we can't get to measure up. It can be done if we have the time.
I believe wind turbines pay back their overall energy investment in 3-4 months, for a E-ROI of about 80:1. Can't beat that.
Build some pumped storage. Good for wind, good for nukes (see Raccoon Mountain).
Nukes are as poor, if not poorer, solution than wind since they are all base load and prone to common design faults (all of one design get forced off-line for months & years at a time w/o warning). Nukes will take a decade, minimum, before first new US goes commerical. Wind can come on-line in as little as 12 months after a commerical decision to build is made.
Wind IS a viable solution. Adapt yourself to it, and not the other way around.
Sure, wind is capital intensive. But what matters is overall cost/MWhr, and on that measure wind does very well.
wind..has a low capacity factor (25% nationally and in California)"
Do you have a source for that? The AWEA says 29% overall for the US. http://www.awea.org/faq/tutorial/wwt_statistics.html
wind..requires almost 100% backup power. "
Not so. I've seen wind described this way ac couple of times, here and by an Irish analyst (for a similar, very small system). It seems to me to be a clear sign of prejudice against wind, as it is a very misleading way to describe wind's contribution to system capacity.
Wind generators have a rated capacity (e.g., 3 Megawatts) which is designed to be substantially higher than the normal operating range, in order to maximize energy capture. A reasonably well placed wind turbine might have a capacity of 3 MW, and utilization of 33%, or an expected average production of 1 MW. A coal or nuclear plant would be considered to be badly failing it's design goals at 33%, but a wind farm very likely would be considered quite successful.
This means that the maximum contribution to peak capacity expected from such a wind farm would be 33% of capacity. You could describe a 2GW wind farm as requiring backup capacity of 1.33 GW, and you would be describing a successful system. It wouldn't sound like it, though.
A 2 GW system that required 1.8 GW backup would be providing .2 GW capacity contribution, or 10%. That would be roughly 1/3 of what would be ideally expected.
In this case E.on gets a 9% contribution from a 18% capacity factor. At 50% that's half what you would want. It's not ideal, but not bad for such a small, isolated system.
Let's be clear: describing wind as needing backup for it's maximum output is misleading. The correct way to phrase it is that wind's capacity contribution is a % of it's maximum, rated output. That % should be the same as it's capacity factor, though that will fall off as market share rises above, say 10-20% (under current conditions).
In the longrun wind's potential market share will rise. As PHEV's and EV's grow that share will rise symbiotically.
Capacity
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec8_44.pdf
Output
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec8_10.pdf
From these you'll see that there was 6,000 MW of wind capacity in 2003. The total net generation (output) for wind in 2003 was 11,200,000 MW-hours. Since 2003 was not a leap year, it had 8,760 hours in it. If wind mills worked with 100% capacity factor in 2003, they would have produced 52,560,000 MW-hr.
Divide actual by possible (11,200,000 / 52,560,000) and one gets 21.3% capacity factor.
I was being generous. One can dig some more at EIA and get state-by-state breakdowns.
As to backup power, I called the generation manager in Austin, Texas about this earlier this year to develop a response for an Econbrowser thread I was involved in. Their answer was that the ERCOT system in Texas allowed on a very few percentage of wind capacity to be considered in system reliability calculations.
For a case study of the need for backup generation for wind, read E.On's report on wind generation in 2005 here:
http://www.eon-energie.de/bestellsystem/frameset_eng.php?choosenBu=eonenergie&choosenId=1725
Almost 6,000 MW of wind dropped off the grid between Christmas Eve and 12/26.
Granted that actual $/MW-hr is important but since there are no fuel costs with wind, just considering capital cost amortization is, again, being generous to wind since it ignores O&M costs. It also deducts most of the tax effects and production credits etc and so attempts to level the playing field a bit. That also reflects the lack of capacity payments for which wind is not creditable.
It's interesting data. There is a very strong increase from 1989 to 2004, starting with 16% in 1989 and ending up with 26.2% in 2004. There's a very strong growth trend: a linear regression indicates a straight line between those two points with an r squared of .64, which is pretty strong.
The AWEA for 2004 gives slightly different numbers: a capacity of 6,740 MW, and "more than" 17 Twhrs, which gives 28.7% capacity factor (or more: I don't know how much "more than" equals..).
I have to say that EIA and DOE data for renewables doesn't seem to be very high quality - I don't rely on them if I don't have to. As an example, they don't include distributed solar in their solar stats, so no matter what happens with distributed PV, you won't see it here.
As for E.On, please read my post about them elsewhere(and my thoughts about utilities and TSO's at the end): they don't seem to be a very helpful source. You would expect them to have trouble with wind intermittency, given their very small size and transmission isolation.
"capital cost amortization is, again, being generous to wind since it ignores O&M costs."
I would disagree. Precisely the opposite: ignoring fuel, operation and maintenance costs (FOM) favors generation sources with relatively high FOM, and penalizes wind, a source with essentially zero FOM. Very low FOM is precisely wind's strength: ignoring that gives a distorted comparison.
Finally, it appears that ERCOT's approach is extremely conservative. If you look at the approaches of comparable organizations around the country, it appears that some give wind much more credit for capacity contribution, up to 32.9% (essentially 100% of capacity factor as measured during peak periods). http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy05osti/38062.pdf
I think the best thing to say about that is that the whole problem of how to value wind is pretty new to utilities, TSO's, and ERC's, and that many of them are going to be conservative until they get more experience with wind. After all, utilities as an investment (or as an industry) are synonymous with conservative....
Are you claiming that an industry advocacy group's data is better and more reliable than official US government data? Maybe yes, maybe no but I know from personal experience that EIA reporting forms are pretty precise and definitive. EIA data collection is also consistent across generation types and subject to user and provider comments.
As to costs, comparing wind's capital costs against other generation forms' total costs still ignores wind's maintenance costs and remains advantageous to wind. People always ask me why are all those wind mills on the Altamonte Pass not turning? My guess is that they cost too much to repair for the electricity they produce. If that wasn't true, someone could make money by fixing them.
I saw your response on E.On's report. My understanding is they are the WORLD'S LARGEST operator of wind mills. They dropped 6,000 MW of generation over 36 to 48 hours because the wind stopped blowing. Other generation had to be brought on-line to pickup the electrical load. Assuming stable load, that means that 6,000 MW of other generation otherwise idle had to come on line to cover the static wind mills. That idle generation costs big capital plus it is difficult for thermal units to raise steam that fast meaning that the backup power has to be spinning reserve or in hot standby further increasing system fuel costs. I guess you could use gas turbines burning oil or natural gas.
Allocating capacity credit to wind mills is indeed a new issue for system operators. The bigger the grid and the more dispersed the wind sites, the better assuming strong transmission. The fact remains that continental becalming can and does happen. Maybe the current capacity credits are too large?
NO ONE assumes that wind turbines will produce 100% of naemplate 100% of the time. Germany is exploiting poorer sires, so an AVERAGE output of 1.5 GW would be good.
A reasonable assumption would be a bit less than 1 GW capacity from wind, with contingency plans with a pumped storaged unit, Swiss, Austrian or Norwegian hydro, or a pumped storage unit (usually working with French nuke at night).
So you have erected an inflated straw man in an attempt to discredit wind energy, our BEST option for the future.
BTW, there are contingency plans for nukes as well. Some design fault is discovered and EVERY unit a utility owns can go down for YEARS without warning. FAR worse a problem than wind.
And when there are multiple wind farms in a region, geographically dispersed (and modern, on-line weather stations everywhere) there is plenty of time to bring a steam plant on-line. But gas CT plants are probably a better choice. They are rapidly becoming surplus (limited fuel) and a duty cycle of 20 hours/year average as wind backup would be a productive use of this other wise wasting and useless asset.
Sure. First, their renewable data tends to be quite old. 2004 data shouldn't be preliminary in June of 2006. I've seen many monthly and weekly oil & gas timeseries from the EIA/DOE, but renewable data? Not so much. Of course, some of their other data on conventional stuff is also out of date - I was looking at some stuff on coal & gas pricing the other day that was embarrasingly dated. Sigh. On the other hand, some of my most interesting wind related data I've found on the Nuclear Energy Institute. So you never know about "industry advocacy groups".
"EIA data collection is also consistent across generation types "
And that can be virtue or a vice. When the standards are geared toward conventional generation, i.e., they exclude small, non-utility operated generation, they'll discriminate against distributed renewables, including wind and solar (especially solar).
"comparing wind's capital costs against other generation forms' total costs still ignores wind's maintenance costs and remains advantageous to wind."
No, I'm suggesting comparing total life-cycle costs for each form of generation. Wind will do very well.
"People always ask me why are all those wind mills on the Altamonte Pass not turning? My guess is..."
Well, let's not guess. My guess is that you're seeing normal idle time. Or that the operator of Altamonte doesn't want to put a lot of investment into something that may be at least partially shutdown because of bird problems (the only windfarm in the country to have this problem in a serious way, btw).
I think Alan has helped answer the question about E.On. Just remember, being the largest doesn't make it the best - It's a geographically very small system, and it's isolated transmission-wise.
"The fact remains that continental becalming can and does happen"
Do you have a source for this? A recent large study in the UK said that this was not the case just for the UK. Seems unlikely at a continental level.
The EIA SUBTRACTS the losses from pumped storage units* from hydroelectric generation totals; thereby severely understating the contribution from the best renewable resource.
* It varies a bit from site to site, but 100 MWh in and 78 MWh out would be a reasonable # for a good unit.
So negative value from pumped storage (according to EIA stats) and a shrunken Hydroelectric.
A better analysis would be to reduce nuclear power generation #s by pumped storage ;psses, since pumped storage is often used to shift 3 AM nuke power to peak power. See TVA nukss & Raccoon Mountain.
Nevertheless, Texas as a state is being very agressive about expanding wind, much more than any other state. I think they understand the importance of energy, they see turbines as at least as attractive as the derricks that blanket Texas, and they hate being a net energy importer...
There are debates that I am aware of within ERCOT for allowing specific wind farms to get a higher capacity factor after several years experience, perhaps with a seasonal adjustment.
So far, the "Wind Rush" has been justified by the high cost of natural gas. In order to displace coal, capacity factors for reliable power will have to be raised.
The way that utilities operate needs to be changed to allow for higher penetration from wind; rather than limiting wind because it does not conform to the behavior of hydro, natural gas. coal or nuke.
BTW, Texas has VERY limited hydro, winds best friend.
I suspect that this isolation reflects Germany's pre-E.U and pre-unification history. In any case, they'd have a lot more flexibility with more transmission capacity and interconnections with other countries, and could reduce generation and demand variance substantially.
For wind utilization, see http://www.awea.org/faq/tutorial/wwt_statistics.html, which gives 29% overall for the US. Offshore windfarms should have substantially higher utilization than land-based, which would favor the US coasts, and the UK, but not help the germans so much.