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236 comments on DrumBeat: June 16, 2006

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nrgyman2000 on June 16, 2006 - 9:44am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
NET OIL EXPORTS AND DECLINERS

The Norwegian blogspot

http://energikrise.blogspot.com/

Has in two recent posts with diagrams in English (based upon BP Statistical Review 2006) shown the developments in net (oil) exports for the years 1985 through 2005 and declines in oil production from countries that have seen declining trends in oil production through the last 5 years (2001 - 2005).

Though production during 2005 increased by 0,9-1,0 Mb/d, net exports increased with less than 0,4 Mb/d. As net imports by countries within OECD and China increased in 2005, this suggests that the other countries collectively must have decreased their imports due to price increases during 2005 (demand destruction). This has been illustrated with a supplementary diagram within the post.

Some of the oil producers and exporters have been increasing their consumption, explaining why growth in production has been stronger than growth in net exports.

The more recent post illustrates how production has been declining for the countries that have a documented decline through the last 5 years (2001 - 2005).

Could this give an idea of how global oil production declines when it starts?

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westexas on June 16, 2006 - 10:01am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
net exports increased with less than 0,4 Mb/d

Note that the recent 500,000 bpd decline in Saudi production, if it holds or get worse, would--all by itself--more than wipe out the entire gain in net oil exports last year.

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nrgyman2000 on June 16, 2006 - 10:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You are right about that.

Add to the equation the possibilties of increased consumption within some of the producers and exporters, and it would not be unlikely that net (oil) exports declined through 2006.

And regarding EROEI, it culd be fair to assume that oil recovered now takes a little more energy than last year.

This could intensify the bidding war for oil later this year.

Normally demand is weaker through May and June, and picks up through the 3.rd quarter.

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236 comments on DrumBeat: June 16, 2006

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