73 comments on A Megaproject list from the Oil and Gas Journal
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73 comments on A Megaproject list from the Oil and Gas Journal
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GAIA Host Collective
"If the US has a bad winter, a hot summer and then another bad winter, we will run into tanker shortages if we try to increase supply through the thin spot LNG market."
Where are you seeing tanker shortages?
After reading a wall street journal article pointing to a glut of tanker ships, I have yet to see the tanker situation change. Every LNG production facility being built have corresponding tanker ship orders being placed. There are also some tanker operators who have order ships for the spot market. From all evidence available now, the tanker market is not the bottleneck, but the LNG exporters are the bottleneck. Delays in getting production to start and other production delays are really hurting the tanker operators.
I will say this: tanker builders need a long lag time between orders and delivery, so it is possible that LNG producers accelerate their production beyond tanker transportation capacity. Nevertheless, we are not seeing that now nor in the near future. You must be looking at the long term to state that LNG tankers are the bottlenecks.
You stated:
"China will be buying Australian LNG. In an emergency, we buy a cargo from China, but it will take four times as long for the cargo to get here. Is China willing to delay three cargos worth "until the end of the contract" and resell one cargo to the US ?"
This is assuming a lot or you got countries mixed up. The last I heard, China has not sign any major deals for LNG from Australia. You must be thinking of Japan who is the largest importer of Aussie LNG based on signed contract at the moment. I do believe China is a wild card, but as of now, China does not have the market conditions to pay for expensive LNG that US, Japan, and Europe are currently paying.
My review of the news that is available to me is much different than yours. My conclusion is that the bottleneck is with LNG production and the lack of natural gas at these sites. At least, this is the bottleneck for the next 3-4 years.
I've supposed that almost all LNG traded today is on fixed contract. There may be some on spot markets but the amount is small. Anyone have figures as to spot as percentage of total LNG trade?
Last winter, US LNG terminals ran at well below capacity even with $15/mmBTU prices at Henry Hub and the US still lost ship loads to other countries (Spain?) I read one story of a tanker from Trinidad being diverted from our Gulf Coast to Europe mid-voyage.
If demand is outstripping supply, I'd expect liquefaction plant developers to get full take-or-pay contracts with very little open to selling spot. Given the perishablity of a tanker load of LNG, transport routings are also closely calculated in development. Unlike oil, LNG depletes in transit as it boils off making travel time a critical economic factor.
You just have to hope that some government agency keeps track of LNG to get your stats.
To further boost my claims, LNG trains are coming online slowly and very costly. Getting welders have been very difficult and if anyone seen how LNG trains are put together, you will know how much pipes you need to put together.
I am curious to know where all the natural gas is coming from to fill up all these LNG trains under construction. If these LNG trains are not in full production, there are no way in hell we will have LNG tanker shortages. It is faster to built a tanker than a train. It is even harder to find enough gas to keep the train in full operations.
A gas pipeline loses pressure as the flow rate increases. In fact, the flow is trans-sonic. That means that to push gas through a long pipe, one has to start with a high pressure to get meaningful gas out the other end. The longer the pipe for a given flow rate, the higher the pressure and the thicker the steel.
To keep wall thickness within economic bounds, land pipelines use booster pumps along the line to make up the pressure drop and keep the gas flowing. Often a pipeline will be constructed and then uprated later with the addition of more booster pumping stations.
A 2,000 mile long pipeline without booster pumps would require extraordinary amounts of steel or else flow little gas. Alternately, building booster pumps 20,000 feet underwater (and maintaining them) is as of yet an unmet challenge.
Tom,
I think people here at TOD will accuse me of being technically optimistic to a fault (some would say a HUGE fault! :-), but I have to say, that yes, a Transatlantic pipeline is out of the debate. Stringing a cable from a spool on the back of an ocean liner is small game compared to the construction and repeating the repressuring of the pipeline at regular interval....it would require repeating stations with compressors and power sources sitting on the bottom of the deep oceans...technically, we're good, but we just ain't that damm good! (don't we wish though...)
What is interesting however is the variety of ideas that are in play to move natural gas....here's one that has actually been explored by the Defense Department as far back as the 1950's....
Suppose you built larger than Hindenburg size airships.....and fill the supporting bladder with natural gas.....it is lighter than air by enough to be bouyant, since it is mostly hydrogen....Then you simply tow a couple of the balloons with one powered airship.....with the weather satellites and good communication, you could steer above and around really rough weather (it would be at least as safe as a deep offshore oil rig in a hurricane!) and move the gas without liquification. :-)
The balloons would have to be VERY LARGE to move enough to make it worth it,but if the airship is well designed aerodynamically, for examle, as a "delta
type shape, they would be very stable.....
The Russians once had an even more radical approach....they were going to fill "floater" balloons with natural gas, and release them into the high altitude....then whenever winds carried them somewhere that had a market for gas, or close enough to it, the customer would send a plane up to capture and retrieve the balloons! With GPS and electronic I.D., the customer would then be billed for the balloon!
And people call me an optimist! :-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Roger Conner
****************
That's thinking outside the box!
Just to try to think a bit outside the box, why not 'float' the cross ocean pipeline say about 30 to 50 meters below the surface. An electrical power cable running with the pipeline would power the booster pumps. All servicing would be at relatively easy to get at depths? Probably wouldn't take any more materials than building a bunch of tanker ships?
O.K., Jon, I hand over my optimists title belt to you, at least for now....:-), that's actually pretty good, in particular if the route was correctly chosen...(would a polar route make sense?)....interesting stuff! I am sure we could sign the Brits up for a station on the line! :-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Would there be enough gas on either side to justify this?
I think if cost was not an issue then yes, technically, engineers will come up with a solution, but it will be damn expensive.