17 comments on Photovoltaic Contribution to UK Electricity
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17 comments on Photovoltaic Contribution to UK Electricity
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GAIA Host Collective
Some problems with solar panels:
We don't make them. In fact we make virtually zero semiconductors in the UK. So we have to buy them on the open market. I have no idea where Wilkipedia gets its price from, but they are not getting cheaper as there is a rising demand. I have seen them for about £1 a watt in the UK so thats £1 per 150mW realistic output [from the figures at the top]. They were covered by Japanese patents when I was doing EE, but maybe these have expired. Fabricating in the UK will never happen as it's a damn sight more complicated, poisonous, expensive, energy intensive than our govt can grasp. Making semiconductors requires cutting edge production which we have lost from the '50s to the '80s. To start making tonnes of the stuff is just not possible. If every country went down this road, and bought from the existing suppliers, semiconductor makers would quickly become richer than ME oil Sheiks.
Practicality. I would say fit them on your roof ideally. Also why not have them track the sun on gimbals? Either way its problematic. AFAIK [no expert, but I did study semiconductors a little bit as an EE] the output will deteriorate from day 1. I have never seen an output/time curve. Unless someone can show me one I will assume it's a linear deterioration. If it was anything else, the manufacturers would be happy to give it. So for a 20 year life array, I will say you that to get full output at 10 years you need to install twice as many panels at year 1.
There is so much scope to reduce domestic consumption that it is massive compared to all other options. I can guess the electrical industry is dead against low voltage, micropower solutions [such as Ultra bright LED lighting run from a low voltage ring]. It was only last year that they tightened the ratchet on installations with the ridiculous 'part P' electrical code, stopping many competent people from installing wiring.
There is also a huge danger in the UK, which I have never seen mentioned. Any UK residents with a bit of history will understand this. A hundred years ago every house had coal fires to heat our poor insulated draughty housing stock. This worked a treat because of the massive heat output of coal. Then we had 'town gas' extracted from coal and radiant gas fires repaced coal fires. Then the 60s thru 90s, almost all housing was retrofitted badly with gas central heating [cutting into joists for pipes, digging out solid brick walls etc, radiators not quite optimal etc]. This was massively expensive, damaged house structures, lost wall space with radiators, cost a fortune for boilers, pumps, ongoing service and replacement etc and gave only 2 benefits - a timer for control and gas WAS cheaper to run.
2 generations have now grown up with this and it has zero status or novelty value nowadays, only high maintenance costs. If the price of gas stays high why would anyone want to use it anymore for domestic heating? If I was modernising an old house now - electric fires are cheap to buy, easy to install and have timers and thermostats. If the running costs vesus gas are comparable...!!
Some manufacturers have even twigged the demand out there and now make centrally managed electric heaters. If this was to become the next national fad, I could see the grid collapse regularly and electric supply would become an even more interesting game for the next 20 years.
Memo to self - get my wind tubines soon.
I have -20% over 20 years in my head from somewhere... a search turned up this:
I don't think that last comment about extending to 60-80 is right, I bet the solar duty cycle is included in the manufactures figure. Generally 20-25 years seems to be quoted but I don't think that's to total failure though, it's to something like 80% of rated output.
Photovoltaic generation has been around a long time. I remember reading a book about it as a boy 45 years ago. Most of the basic patents will have long since expired. However as in all complex industrial processes there are always a host of patents on minor aspects. Photovoltaic production is fairly simple technology compared to semiconductors. Doing it cheaply is the difficult part. It is no more poisonous and energy intensive that many other industries
We don't have to go to Japan, there is plenty of production in Germany which is now installing more capacity than the rest of the world put together, over 850MW in 2005 out of a world installation of over 1480MW from crystalline silicon and another 176MW by other means (the UK managed 4MW). European producers have about 26% of the market and the Americans 12%
We cannot produce tonnes of the stuff? According to this report in 2005 10,000 tonnes of silicon was produced for photovoltaic use (out of 30,000 tonnes of semiconductor silicon) and another 7,000 tonnes was used from stockpiles from previous years. This year production will increase 30% to 13,000 tonnes but there is nothing left in stock. This will reduce the amount of silicon available and increase the price of polysilicon still further. It has a already increased it from $30/kg to $60/kg. Fortunately cells are being made with progressively less silicon and output is expected to rise this year to 1738MW rated capacity.
However it is estimated that soon the production squeeze will have eased and by 2009 photovoltaic use will have overtaken electronics and be using 27,000 tonnes of polysilicon a year to produce 3400MW of rated generation which with other photovoltaic will bring the total for the year to 4100MW. This will bring total world installed rated capacity to about 15.6GW.
Tracking the sun ideally gives only a 38% increase over an optimally angled fixed panel at UK latitudes and given that the UK tends to be more cloudy morning and evening it is probably less than that. A multi-section tracker on a roof with sections paced to avoid self shadowing will not give more than a fixed panel covering the whole of same roof area. The only advantage is that the total area of the spaced out trackers will be less than the continuous fixed panels. I doubt the gain is worth the cost of the scanners and the reliability problems they might cause. Interestingly the book that I mentioned above and that has stuck in mind suggested building houses that float in a circular pond so that the whole house could turn to track the sun. I wondered then and I wonder still how the sewerage would connect in such a system.
I strongly suspect Chris is right when he suggests that the 20 year live of photovoltaic panels is a cautious under estimate. I have had my system for over 2 years and have monitored it closely. There has been no drop in output at all and I think I could detect a 1% drop off. Space borne systems have survived many years in a vastly more hostile environment than UK roofs.
You say that gas central heating is a problem in the UK. I don't know of many houses that fell down because of such installations. Gas heating is still a lot cheaper than electricity and likely to remain so for many years. As long as most electricity is generated from fossil fuels (and this is not going to change much in the next 15 years) the price of gas and electricity are going to go up together. Domestic combined heat and power is the way to go if you are going to use fossil fuel.
If a solar array is 80% at 20yrs that sounds reassuring. Of course as each PV junction fails what do you do? They are serially connected to give a high output voltage [eg 12V] so water damage of 1 in a chain of 10 renders 10 useless - unless you can field replace them? As an array starts failing do you replace it or add more? Comparisons to spacecraft etc is not relevant as I would think they have invested more thought in design than domestic installation companies.
Even if your cells have a long life, what of batteries and inverters to generate AC? These have a hard life and will need replacing.
A Google on 'Wrexham Sharp Solar' gives some info:
www.prometheusinstitute.org/admin/ researchnotes/uploads/PV2-0301.08_-Sharp_Solar-.pdf
highlight:
Employs 63 people [in 2004] - produces 40MW of modules made of mono and polycrystalline cells made in Japan.
We basically gave up making semiconductors in the UK in the 1980s, and are therefore hostages to the fortunes of other hi-tech countries. This was something UK govts have never admitted. One of your links, Nick:
http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story?id=41508
says SGS is a manufacturer. Thats the French. So its French nuclear or solar right?
"I have had my system for over 2 years and have monitored it closely. There has been no drop in output at all and I think I could detect a 1% drop off."
Not necessarily. The end output seen is that of the inverter, which regulates the output voltage. If cells deteriorate it is simply the maximum current available which decreases. I have no knowledge how cells do deteriorate, but I know it takes a lot of them to make a useful amount of power.
"..building houses that float in a circular pond so that the whole house could turn to track the sun..."
If you were close to a lot of water a heat pump could give you year round climate control.
"You say that gas central heating is a problem in the UK. I don't know of many houses that fell down because of such
installations. Gas heating is still a lot cheaper than electricity and likely to remain so for many years. As long as most electricity is generated from fossil fuels (and this is not going to change much in the next 15 years) the price of gas and electricity are going to go up together. Domestic combined heat and power is the way to go if you are going to use fossil fuel."
I have owned 3 old terrace houses which have all had gas central heating retrofitted. All had notches cut into joists to accomodate pipes. I doubt if any followed these guidelines:
http://www.worthing.gov.uk/Planning/BuildingControl/TechnicalGuidanceNotes/19NotchingDrillingofTimbe rJoists/
I think domestic gas heating could be disastrous if the price of gas rises. The total ownership cost and hassle of gas is much higher than electric heating. If domestic gas prices narrow versus electric..switching to electric is as easy as a £10 fan heater from Argos.
cheers all