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168 comments on DrumBeat: June 24, 2006

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TechGuy on June 24, 2006 - 11:54am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
>Younger people today do not recognize how society has changed.

That is a bit of an understatement. While I am much younger than you I still can easily see how far society is changing, and to me the changes are accelerating in the wrong direction.

>I do see a major shift in education from the sciences toward service stuff like medicine, etc.

I see it shifting away from the sciences entirely and into liberal arts and away from education that would provide them real job opportunities. A few years ago there were several articles about how the high school curriculum was simplified so its easy to obtain a A or B average with virtually no academic effort. When these kids reach college they are unprepared to meet the requirements and often change thier major into liberal arts. Today's kids have far more distractions then our generations did. They've been raised on game consoles and 100+ Channel cable TV. Interest in determining a future career is at the bottom of the list.

>It is likely the lessor educated will keep on making babies while the more educated will have fewer children.

This is always been true. When ever I hear about a co-worker or friend that just had a new baby, I find it depressioning to think about that child's future.  I doubt that anyone born today will ever have the opportunity to drive, even less, a decent education.

>I'd go to an Ag school and major in soil science...or, maybe, take the tuition money and become a speciality farmer.

I have one of the top hi-tech careers as you can get and I am in the process of giving it all up and going rural. I remember the oil shocks of the 1970s and I know that our economic system is not sustainable without cheap energy. My career is only as sustainable as the oil keeps on flowing.
In prepation, I have been spending the majority of my free time educating myself to become self-stainable.

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Wharf Rat on June 24, 2006 - 12:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"In prepation, I have been spending the majority of my free time educating myself to become self-stainable."

Maybe this will help...
  Todd has thought about this stuff more than anybody I personally know. I've posted some of the papers he sent me...

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21880292
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21893957
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21894050
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21936866
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21936869

And a final thought about subsistence hunting...

He's also the guy who told me that, when the Depression hit up here (northern Mendocino County), all the deer were hunted out in 6 months.

Rat thanking Todd

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creg on June 24, 2006 - 5:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks for posting these;and thanks to Todd. Prep is numero uno!!!                                                                      
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Todd on June 24, 2006 - 5:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Rat,

Thanks for the thanks.  I'm currently working on a paper entitled Austere Food Production.  The basic thrust is getting away from the idea of "gardening" and seeing it as one might see a business.  In essence, I believe people will waste time and resources growing the wrong stuff in the wrong way if TSHTF.  My idea is to provide a different view of how to do it and what to grow.  And, FWIW, part of it may be high carbon/Terra Preta type soils.

I thought I'd have it done weeks ago but life has been busy.  I'll get it circulated one of these days.

Todd

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AlphaMaleProphetOfDoom on June 24, 2006 - 6:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Todd,

Could you email about this paper? I'd email you but there is no email contact on your profile.

my email is matt@lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

Best,

Matt

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Todd on June 24, 2006 - 8:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Matt,

I'll have to reset my email program but I'll get something off to by the middle of next week (there's a long story behind this that isn't germane).  There are a number that Rat didn't post.

FWIW, they are all in Word.  The doc titles are Giant 1, Giant 2 and Giant 3 since I combined a lot of docs into, big surprise, giant docs.  Lots of the formatting was lost in the posts he linked.

Your subject line will be Todd's Giant Papers.

Todd

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Todd on June 24, 2006 - 8:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Matt,

FWIW, my email addy is shown on Rat's first link.  But I didn't think I had blocked it on TOD.  I'll have to check.  In any case, now everyone knows.  Just don't send stuff on penis enhancers since all the email goes to my wife's computer.  I'd add more but this is a family channel.

Todd

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Wharf Rat on June 25, 2006 - 10:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Whoops. Sorry about that; didn't notice it.
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Mike Hearn on June 25, 2006 - 4:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Todd, spammers use bots that trawl the net looking for email addresses. You'll get spam pretty quick now it's out in the open. Just ignore/filter it.
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odograph on June 24, 2006 - 7:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Sounds great.  As a sometimes gardener I've definitely noticed that some crops yield big for low effort.  Other crops may just not be happy in that climate.

This isn't a comment to you specifically, but some in the thread who seem to think you have to leave for the hills:

I really hope that anyone who (a) is ready to go, and (b) already has access to 1/10th acre (and water) has the sense to "pilot" their ideas there first.

http://www.pathtofreedom.com/

As I say below, it's about "urban" homesteading and growing 3 tons of food on 1/10th acre.

... maybe if you produce a ton or two of food in a suburban setting you'll end up less of a pessimist ;-)

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Magnus Redin on June 24, 2006 - 6:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
My impression is that the pysical changes today are less drastic then for my grandparents. What is internet and cellphones compared with electricity, telephone, radion, tractors, double glazing, running hot and cold water and paved roads with cars?

I expect peak oil to mean smaller cars that are expensive to use, more trolleys, more train travel, far less air travel, expensive food, less cheap toys, more software toys, less printed paper use, less living area per person complemeted with cheap unheated summer living area too feel richer, LED lighting, lots of bicycles and Ipods with batteries and connectors that can be changed at the local electronics repair shop.

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Magnus Redin on June 24, 2006 - 6:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
...radio

And no I do not expect any of the early 1900 technological systems to expire with peak oil with the possible exeption of the rural telephone lines being replaced by radio.

They were built with far less oil input then todays use. They contain a much larger investment today and and require more maintainance but the manufacturing technology is more efficient now.

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Antoinetta III on June 25, 2006 - 11:55am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I do not expect the early 1900s stuff to just disappear when we hit Peak Oil, but I expect most of it will gradually fade away over the next 1,000 years.

Antoinetta III

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DIYer on June 24, 2006 - 11:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
cheap unheated summer living area

Here in Texas, we're less concerned about heating in summer as well... fortunately, we don't need refrigerated living areas so much in winter, however :=>

I agree with the idea of a local repair shop, however; the importance of repair will surely increase as our unsustainable throwaway culture gets too expensive to continue.

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Magnus Redin on June 25, 2006 - 6:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It has not made economical sense to repair a lot of stuff since manufacturing technology has become very efficient and a lot of stuff and toys have had and still have fast paced development.

I think one of the biggest staring points of future repairability is the need to recycle material. Easy manufacturing and easy breaking down favors maintainability and designers learn how to make smarter products.

When things get more expensive with higher energy costs I expect the switch over to maintainable stuff will be quick and follow the market expectations.

My model for this is professional chain saw maintainance shops and the TV repair shops of the 70:s.

I am very qurious about future electronics, motor and battery standards and so on. Some day the development will slow down and the same standard parts will be used everywhere since large scale manufacturing will continue to make sense and redesigning things cost money. But not yet and it would have sucked if the future had standardised on for instance 80:s cars or 90:s battery tools.

This reminds me of 40 year old train coaches and 50 year old two stroke diesel engines competing with modern busses and trucks wicth engines that almost can be used as air cleaners. A long life lenght is not allways a benefit if you neglect to invest in better technology. But it is of course nice when you can not afford to do so.

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168 comments on DrumBeat: June 24, 2006

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