139 comments on DrumBeat: June 27, 2006
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139 comments on DrumBeat: June 27, 2006
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GAIA Host Collective
Everybody depending on energy imports to support their current lifestyle is in big trouble - the thing is, that is what, around 80% of humanity?
The question is, what happens after the energy available is reduced?
There, I place my bets on Europe in comparison to the U.S. - Europe will quite likely return to its standard traditions - the harvest is going quite well out my window and throughout this region, the sheep are doing their annual trek, a lot of people made strawberry jam from local strawberries using sugar made from sugar beets grown in the region, and the cherries are looking quite good. This will be followed by apples and grapes.
How does it look from your window?
If you mean Germans will be doing worse because they aren't going to be tearing down the autobahn, I agree. If you mean the trains connecting the cities and towns will stop running, I disagree. And if you mean that countries with with positive trade flows are in a worse position than the world's largest debtor nation, I think you are very mistaken.
No one, absolutely no one, is likely to enjoy the next several decades - but I prefer living in a place with local agriculture and high technology and long term perspectives in planning.
I think the U.S. will have to work very hard to even come close to achieving European 'disadvantages' like inefficient local agriculture, social services and essentially universal health care, essentially zero population growth, and a perspective which covers generations not quarterly reports.
Unlike 40% of Americans, wwho I have read expect to end their lives among the top 1% of the wealthy, Europeans are people who tend to have a realistic view of what life offers. This seems to be the essential handicap you are describing.
Expat, I enjoy your unique perspective and I realistically plan to die in Europe. I prefer the Danish, but that's another topic. I'd like to point out something about your quote above. Those 40% who believe they will die in the top 1% is the entrepreneurial spirit that has driven this country from the bottom to the top. I'm not saying Europe lacks this, but historically the risk takers left Europe to come here. Those who wanted to just deal with what life gives them, stayed.
I don't see this as a handicap either because this spirit drives people to compete and attain what they want. Now 40% believing the top 1% is a stretch, but I still believe I will be well of financially, just not THAT well off. I've opened businesses that have failed, I know what failure feels like, but I still grind out a living and think of HOW to get myself out of the race I'm in. If I were "realistic" as you say, I would just kowtow and lack any motivation to change my life for the better. I'll end this by saying there is a definate difference between those who BELIEVE they will be rich, and those who WORK to becoming rich.
In reality, we have been steadily moving towards a system of taxation that favors wealth over work. The middle class has steadily been shrinking for many years. We have moved into a mindset that consumption is the central goal of all our lives, and in the process have ended up augmenting our lifestyle based on going deeper and deeper into debt.
I think it's a mistake to think of the United States as being somehow more exceptional than Europe or anywhere else. We're different, certainly, but not necessarily better. I doubt there is any significant difference in personality type based on people leaving Europe to come here. You can use that sort of thinking to make almost any argument. For example, you could just as easily say that "only those who couldn't cut it in Europe came to America." It would have just as little validity to it.
Europe right now is grappling with the opposite problem that we are. Their society is designed to be more egalitarian, so that even those who are poor are better off. For example, European poor can still go to the doctor, poor here don't have that luxury. Now, the opposite side of that is that in ensuring stability and economic fairness, that their economies are a bit less fluid and able to quickly react. Clearly they have problems, but they are also relatively overblown by the U.S. financial press.
My point was essentially based on the delusional idea that 40% becomes 1% - not only won't it happen, it is not possible.
And yet, Americans believe it. There are a lot of beliefs which seem fairly unique to America, if only in part because no other society had the chance to live in such luxury that they could ignore the world around them for a generation or two. (And for those Americans who believe Europe is living in a dream world - sure, they are, in part because they also know very well what a nightmare world looks like too - they worked hard to achieve the dream.)
Sort of like saying global warming isn't true, because it is just raining for a week in DC - I should trademark something along such lines as 'Cold rain means no global warming' for the oil companies.
EU countries do not look to be able to resolve even simple internal issues of employment - students riot to protect young people's wages and guarantees of lifetime employment that prevent them from being hired, resulting in high unemployment that then creates dissatisfaction and more riots among immigrants. The US, for all its recent mismanagement, remains a far better place for a poor person to rise to middle class or above, to say nothing about a person with a 'different' background to get a job.
THe US could do without any oil imports by car-pooling, converting to prius/diesel technology, plus moving from trucks for long haul to trains - that is, adapting to Europe-level energy consumption. And, we will soon begin converting from fossil fueled generating stations to nuclear ones, something not likely to come soon to Germany, the EU's largest economy, where we will see more brown coal consumed instead. Europe is addicted to russian gas, and the price is rising fast. As for oil, the EU is becoming less self-sufficient by the day.
As an aside, the world may well be moving towards less trade and more local product, not least agriculture. But, globalization has brought higher living standards to many, not least in asia but in many others too. Many at this site decry trade and its more visible entities, such as walmart. Probably many of these proudly think of themselve as liberals. There was a time when US liberals, and "trade" unions too, supported free trade both as helpful to the world's poor and as usefully providing markets for our exports. Trade still mostly helps the world's poor while competition does, in the end, help everybody. Restrictions to trade would reduce jobs everywhere today, just as they did do in the thirties, whether caused by policy or higher energy costs.
I disagree about our leadership though. I'm not liberal by any means, I'm for a small small national govt. States should have a bit more power, but that's for another discussion. People keep saying we did this before, so we'll rise to the occasion. I think this is flat wrong. We will do something about, albeit too late, but it can't FIX this problem. It's easy to build crap and destroy even more crap with big metal bombs. The people of those generations were used to sacrificing and dealt with rationing of common goods for the war effort. Can you imagine that now?
We are different people than just three decades ago. We haven't faced a major crisis that required a national effort since WWII. Vietnam, Korea, & the middle east conflict are NOT even close in national scope. We transformed entire sectors of our economy into wartime mode. We couldn't do that now and part of it has to due with the flight of all the equipment, plant & property we used to make these wartime machines.
So much has changed especially the consuming public. We consume like no one on this planet and we gloat on top of that. Generally speaking we have transformed into a "me, now" culture and have little room for sacrifices. Add on that our representatives do not represent us, rather corp america and what will motivate these people? Personally I'm getting rid of any incumbant that I can, but the replacements don't look a whole lot better. The business interests of this country do not jive with the personal needs of America. However the average American will tell you different due to the success of the machine know as marketing.
Not to mention Science is being repressed. Does that sound like another time European history? Science is being tarnished by this Administration and who knows what the next leader will have to say about this. Most people are asleep at the wheel, the leaders are sleeping, and the few of us that are awake are screaming to slam on the brakes. The only way out is reduce demand. As a politician you will not get elected telling everyone to stop doing what they are doing.
Maybe things have changed. I haven't been there in 20 years.
T
Things may look nice outside your window, but in terms of the European Union, times are generally good right now and we see:
- Truckers blockading ports and cities when gasoline prices get too high.
- Students rioting (and the government give in) when labor laws are changed.
- Sizeable minorities (Muslims, Turks) who are widely disaffected.
- Huge agricultural subsidies keeping those local farmers in business, and when those laws are threatened, they threaten to riot too.
- Several countries have already had their populations refuse to ratify articles of the European Union.
So clearly there's already some tension under the surface there. And yes, some of those things are also true of the US. But the US has the advantage of an American identity. When things get difficult, say a recession, do you think the Germans and the Italians are going to agree on interest rates?And notice - whenever worldwide markets decline, what goes up? US Treasury Bills. That says something, namely that there is still an underlying faith in the US.
I won't argue with you though that Europe in general has significantly better transit systems.
well, it is a problem of focus. I grew up in Fairfax County near Washinton, DC - if you think a neighborhood in Anacostia has anything to do with Fairfax, then you will see quickly how the averages paint a very different picture. The same is true of West Virginia compared to Northern Virginia. But Fairfax in the 70s was a very good place to live.
America has extremes which are pretty much unacceptable in a European context. And America has thrown away things which Europeans consider important to the long term.
And Europeans tend to want to keep what they have - what you see as social disorder (and which it is, at times) most people here see as standing up for their rights - and yes, they have a broader definition of 'rights' than being hired and fired as a privilege of participating in a free market where the rich are certainly getting richer, and the poor are to blame.
There are a number of ways of looking at the future, of course - personally, I prefer a place already living many of the suggestions Americans are still dimly aware of as a response to declining liquid fossil fuels. European societies existed long before fossil fuels, and they are likely to exist afterwards. The same is much harder to seriously suggest about the U.S.A.
Local agriculture, for example, is a social question, not a technological one. Technology is only a part of peak oil, though the one Americans tend to focus on it almost obsessively, either pro or con. How much farmland did the last couple of decades of suburban development cost the U.S.? And in a decade or two, do you think anyone will find that a good bargain - giving up farm fields for the hour commute to pay for the mortgage?
Europe has made different long term choices - we will see how they play out.