282 comments on DrumBeat: June 3, 2006
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282 comments on DrumBeat: June 3, 2006
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I respect all the diversity of opinion on the website and I'm glad we have a place for everyone to voice their point of view on politics, but let's be honest, much of this is just talk, not action. I think there will be a lot of talk at the national level and not a lot of action. The action will be at the local level. What's interesting to me about MoveOn's approach is that they had people meet with other local concerned citizens in their area to discuss these issues.
As Speaker Tip O'Neil famously said, "all politics is local". People in my neighborhood don't talk about global warming or resource depletion at community board meetings (sigh...) - they talk about illegal biking on the sidewalk, bad or overly expensive grocery stores and asthma rates. I see my job as building the connection between those issues in solutions like bike lanes and greenmarkets. And after 6 months of effort, we are starting to move the ball forward. Next week I expect them to add another greenmarket much because of the efforts of a few local citizens and the local newspaper just wrote an editorial (after we supplied the right information). And thanks to local TOD:NYC reader Damek, we are building a snazzy new website...TBD...to help activate the local area to take action to environmental, resource depletion and community building.
How did I get to this place? Well, I completely disengaged from national politics after the last two elections. Gore, Kerry would have been much better, than Bush, IMO but Congress would have likely been extremely antagonistic on any domestic program to mitigate PO or GW.
Peak Oil is not going to be solved at the national level at this point, maybe if we had done something in the 1990s we would have built a different infrastruture and curbed the exurban / SUV boom. But now it's all going to be about local adaptation to new situations. The Feds can help or hinder, but I don't think they will be decisive.
I urge everyone to engage with your local elected officials, local newspapers, business leaders, join a few clubs (political or not), meet your neighbors, ask them what their concerns are and try to find connections between them and PO or GW. Be patient. Don't just yell at people. Don't talk down to people. Be humble. Listen to people. Be forthright about your concerns. Make your points matter of factly. Be persistent. Good Luck.
I hope this doesn't come off as an adversarial question. If I could ask it in person, I could use tone/facial expression to more elegantly ask it. But here goes: do you feel like you're getting a good return on investment (ROI) on you peak oil activism?
I ask because I am fascinated by the psychological aspects of these issues. If I've only got a certain amount of time in each week, I think investing it in one of the following to have a better ROI than activism in terms of the age of energy descent.
- Family (have your back when the shit hits the fan)
- Religious sect (same reason)
- Making money (makes it easier to prepare)
- Learning skills (makes you more valuable)
Personally, I've found activism on this issue to have a negative ROI. I'm not the only "prophet of doom" to feel this. Jay Hanson, the OriginalProphetOfDoom (The "OPD") was quite the activist before reaching similar conclusions.He ran for office on a sustainability platform but got beat by a convicted child molester. Jay's a pretty articulate guy and apparently not at all like his internet persona so that says more about how much people DON'T want to consider these issues than his inadequacies as a candidate.
Of course, there could a variety of reasons why my activism doesn't seem to have a positive ROI. When people would express doubt about the veracity of my claimas I would just start to yell things like "oh yeah, well you can't handle the truth!!!" before kicking dirt and yelling obsecenties. Not sure if that was the best approach.
For the purpose of this question I want to distinguish "activism" from "personal preparation." Lobbying the city council for more bike lanes would be an example of activism while learning to repair bikes would be an example of personal preparation.
Best,
Matt
The greenmarket might be an exampel of a "return" but given the size of NYC, I have to wonder how much of a difference is it going to make ineven if the success was multiplied 10 or 100 times over.
Would the activists who lobbied for it have been personally better off investing their time and energy in the 4 investments I mention up top?
Best,
Matt
Here is the point you are missing (and if I was with you face to face, i would present it in a bantering, have-you-ever? sort of way).
Most of the things we do diverge in expected vs actual outcome, and the brain chemical cocktail we immediately generate upon the action is the only part that is constant - we dont purposefully do things that 'feel bad'. Using Peakguy as the first example, when he is active in an altruistic sense regarding spreading the word on peak oil, he 'feels good'. This is because we have active reciprocal altruism algorithms that evolved to cement bonds within a tribal setting and kept our kin and friends tightly knit in times of strife. What Peakguy cognitively believes his actions are doing is somewhat irrelevant: he does them because they feel good - the proximate goal is helping society - the ultimate goal is the neural mix he recieves.
Another example is a slot machine or roulette player - they cognitively know what they are doing is a long term bad idea (as is smoking, TV, junk food,etc) yet at the moment it 'feels good' (specifically the dopamine in these cases) so they do it. Another example of limbic system trumping intellect.
These activities that generate chemical cocktails that in the past led to more babies and more resources for the babies are maladaptive in a society with so much excess and opportunity for distraction. Our reward system has been hijacked by phantom pursuits on a full planet. Not that we are not doing good: many of us are - us that our end results are often different than our wiring 'intended'. In the end, each of us walks through life executing the computer program housed in our stone age noggin - the hardware is the genes we are born with - the software is the cultural signals we receive from friends, family media, etc.
The green market lobbysists do so because they feel like part of the 'right tribe' and it makes them happy, not because theyve done a discounted cash flow on how their green activities will be as a personal time invesment.
Ive said stuff like this before - I am unclear if its too esoteric and people dont get it, they do get it and dont respond or if they think the idea is whacked. I, (obviously) believe it to the core.
Clearly, you understand your relative fitness algorithmic drives, but execute them different than others due to your experience, skillset, worldview and options available to you But the part that is missing is that you do things that make you feel good. Working 60 hours per week on getting LATOC established and eschewing other options is because you get a 'buzz' from the accomplishment. Not because youve optimized the present value of the future correctly.
We are not robots per se, because once you put two or more of us together there are myriad things that can happen, but our general hardware is pretty dang similar, which makes us robots of a sort.
Actually it makes sense, although I've read a lot about this stuff and am fascinated by it. It would be over my head if I was new to this stuff.
My feeling is that the best ROI will be with your family, which is the closest to your genetics. Of course that feeling, as you point out, is probably little more than the product of genetic alogrithms doing what they do. It has a lot to do with my personal situation and the options available to me. If different data (say on the immediate enviornment) were fed into my genetic alogrithims, then the resulting feelings would be different.
I.E., if you put Peak Guy in my shoes or vice versa, the feelings about the ROI of peak oil activism would go through a behaviorial switch.
Best,
Matt
We're smarter than that. We have evolved forebrains which have given us much more flexibility than that.
The problem is that when we are under stress (either current or the chronic traces of early life) the fight or flight response turns off our forebrain (it evolved later, and the body sees it as unnecessary in an emergency). We go to much simpler responses.
People who compulsively gamble, or eat, or any of the other things people do in an addictive fashion, are doing it to feel better, driven by their lizard brains. Recovery and healing of their emotional trauma frees up their intelligence.
Intuitively we know that it's possible to be intelligent and in charge, and recoil from pessimistic assessments of our ability to handle life. The above is why: we know at some level that something better is possible, though sometimes we get discouraged.
Activism is like anything else - people can do it compulsively, or for good reasons. We each have to figure out what's going on for us individually, and if we're doing something for a bad reason, make adjustments.
Don't give up: we can be intelligent.
Possessing intelligence does not mean we can overcome a) ignorance or b) our limbic impulses. If we are hungry, horny, tired or enraged, you might as well throw the intelligence out the window. We will act, then our 'large forebrain' will rationalize the best it can to come up with some BS that sounds reasonable to fit the circumstances ( "I'm sorry, I didnt realize that was the last chicken leg", "Oh, I havent slept much this week, forgive me for staring at your breasts- how rude of me")
Actually, we all have the capacity and drive to seek novelty and create dopamine. Behavioral scientists have suggested that those with 'suites of genes' that enhance self-control use these drives towards success and those who cannot control these impulses, especially men, have problems with addicition to various substances (internet, gambling, porn, drugs, etc). I recommend "American Mania"by Peter Whybrow who runs UCLAs neuroscience Semel Institute (and is on my dissertation committee). It lays out the case that Americans are particularly susceptible to this behavior due to self-selecting genetic bottlenecks that occurred in the time of our immigration to Americas shores. Bill McKibben, in his new book "Whats Next" also delves into our culture of 'individuality' which has diverged from the slower, more social settings of our forebears just a few hundred years ago.
One of the explanatory variables, (and the jury is still out due to the newness and complexity of the scientific testing), is something called the DRD4 dopamine receptor. People that have the gene for this repeat polymorhism tend to be impulsive, seek out novelty, excitement, thrills etc. When none exist, they create them. This trait and other personality traits, are between 40 and 60% heritable, according to personality tests using Cloningers Tridimensional Personality Quotient. (the rest being environmental).
Again, critics of this line of thinking say it smacks of biological determinism, to which I disagree. Recall one of the revolving quotes in the upper right corner of TOD from George Monbiot:
We are animals but live in a culture that can change quickly if given the right signals. Which of our natures can cause the required nurture? Think of all the pieces of the puzzle that readers of theoildrum have pieced together in the past few years. Think of 99%+ of humans that have lived and died before us, unaware of the profound broader context existing on the planet when they were born. Interesting times to be alive, and have a forebrain. Lets continue aggressively using it before Mr Hyde reasserts control
Since you seem to have some knowledge in the this area, here's a question for ya -- given humans propensity for self-reinforcing behaviour, and that this tendency appears to exist in intellectual realms as well (not just physically "addictive" areas), what techniques, if any, have been discovered to convince people to expose themselves to opposing ideas? Or to approach without bias any evidence that does not reinforce their already held beliefs? Or simply to not rationalize away data or events that are inconvenient to their current thinking?
I'm interested in how to get around this cloistered behaviour -- how to get people to think independently.
That said, I bet there is some variation between us all, just because a 'mix' is better for the survival of the rest of our genes. There is no advantage in the children on one set of parents being uniform in this, or any other heritable trait.
It would appear (setting the nature debate aside) that you start out without any pre-concieved notions on the world when you're born. But as you grow, develop, and experience things...burning your hand in a fire, stepping in dog crap...you start to form a filter through which you view life. Fire is hot and burns, dog crap stinks. Thus we learn to avoid getting burned, and avoid stepping in poo. Extrapolate that out a bit and what you have are a number of experiences throughout your life that you base everything against. And unfortunately, that lifetime of filter development must be gotten through before one can accept the peak oil reality.
... now I want a bird feeder in my office.
How dare you.
No. We are remade in our Lord creator's image.
If the Lord did not want us burn in oil, he wouldn't have hid it deep underseas for us to find so easily. He would've put it on Mars.
Uranium was placed here on Earth just for us so we can make intelligent use of it. Hydrocarbons were placed here on Earth just for us so we can intelligently use them too. Money was invented so we can spend it like there's no tomorrow. It is all part of the creator's grand scheme, his intelligent design. Every faith-based American knows that. To believe otherwise is to be unpatriotic. Sir have you no shame?
The modern conception is that we compare ourselves to those hunter-gatherers who are pushed to fringe environments, while we civilized farmers take up the good land. A stone age man in a good environment (from bone dimension and mass) resembled our elite athletes, our Olympians.
We are the weak cousins here.
I also have some local recognition as well, although I eschew an "up front" role.
I guess I find these activities to be both pleasing in the way that thelastsasquatsh outlines above, but also because I feel it enhances my standing in my family and religious community (I'm a Unitarian - I get a lot of respect from everyone for my efforts). I am building social capital with local community leaders - talking to people on the community board, local elected officials, meeting volunteers interested in helping out, food bank organizers. I'm tackling something that many, many people care deeply about - protecting the environment. I throw in peak oil as the "other" reason to do everything.
In terms of personal preparation, I think increasing my savings rate and managing my investments wisely are the best time to money ROI. I feel good about my financial investments (but am strongly considering a PO investment club with some peers), I earn a good salary and live well within my means (save a lot). I also work in an industry (healthcare) that will probably be less prone to an economic downturn because it is "need based" rather than other sectors more based on discretionary income. So I feel good about weathering the first phase. I have not found many activities (starting a business, writing a book, etc) that would increase my net income sufficiently to devote any time to them.
Long term I do plan to buy some land that has potential for farming and timber collection.
But mostly I think accepting lowered expectations for material comfort in the future is one of the best personal preparations one can do.
And I do plan on learning bike repair at some point!
I should be clear when I use the word "ROI" as I mean it in all sense of the word, not just financial. A boost in social captial for instance would be an exampel of a positive roi.
This makes perfect sense to me given our tribal backgrounds: "feel it enhances my standing in my family and religious community (I'm a Unitarian - I get a lot of respect from everyone for my efforts)."
I think people who "burnout" do so because at some point the subconscious realizes they are not getting these things in return for the efforts. GThe solitary blogger, as an example, almost always burns out.
Of course what you get out of something has a lot to due with your personal skill set. My guess is that in regards to activsim, you have tact that I lack. I'm more of the "here are the facts bitches, if you can't deal with it that's your problem not mine" type of activist.
So my personal ROI in the activism realm is pretty low.
Also, just to be clear, I didn't intend for this to be a "whose done what to prepare" which is really "whose got the biggest cock" type of thing. Aside from being physically healthy and debt-free, I'm no more prepared than most.
Not to get off topic, but I think health care is a good industry to be in. After all, when any of us goes through our budget and starts cutting things out, we usually leave healthcare as the last thing to cut. For instance, I think being a urologist is as crash proof as it gets. After all, if you're a guy and you have a problem down there you are going to find the money to get it checked out come hell or high water.
Best,
Matt
And yeah, I see a demand for healthcare continuing in some form for a very, very long time.
Yeah, it's totally not a contest. To each their own.
I am guessing that good is being done here too. I gotta admit that I sometimes engage in a little fantasy of scribbling off a check for a ticket around the world for prophetofdoom to give a personal report on how many good, smart, funny, emphatic, wise, beautiful, gifted andso-on people there are, in all colors, places, shapes, sexes and sects. And some of them happy and simultaneously almost possession-free.
He already knows this. I thought I already knew this when I started my travels, after all, hadn't I already read hundreds of national geographic mags? Then, surprise, surprise.