Forgot to add this:

The greenmarket might be an exampel of a "return" but given the size of NYC, I have to wonder how much of a difference is it going to make ineven if the success was multiplied 10 or 100 times over.

Would the activists who lobbied for it have been personally better off investing their time and energy in the 4 investments I mention up top?

Best,

Matt

Matt,
Here is the point you are missing (and if I was with you face to face, i would present it in a bantering, have-you-ever? sort of way).

Most of the things we do diverge in expected vs actual outcome, and the brain chemical cocktail we immediately generate upon the action is the only part that is constant - we dont purposefully do things that 'feel bad'. Using Peakguy as the first example, when he is active in an altruistic sense regarding spreading the word on peak oil, he 'feels good'. This is because we have active reciprocal altruism algorithms that evolved to cement bonds within a tribal setting and kept our kin and friends tightly knit in times of strife. What Peakguy cognitively believes his actions are doing is somewhat irrelevant: he does them because they feel good - the proximate goal is helping society - the ultimate goal is the neural mix he recieves.

Another example is a slot machine or roulette player - they cognitively know what they are doing is a long term bad idea (as is smoking, TV, junk food,etc) yet at the moment it 'feels good' (specifically the dopamine in these cases) so they do it. Another example of limbic system trumping intellect.

These activities that generate chemical cocktails that in the past led to more babies and more resources for the babies are maladaptive in a society with so much excess and opportunity for distraction. Our reward system has been hijacked by phantom pursuits on a full planet. Not that we are not doing good: many of us are - us that our end results are often different than our wiring 'intended'. In the end, each of us walks through life executing the computer program housed in our stone age noggin - the hardware is the genes we are born with - the software is the cultural signals we receive from friends, family media, etc.

The green market lobbysists do so because they feel like part of the 'right tribe' and it makes them happy, not because theyve done a discounted cash flow on how their green activities will be as a personal time invesment.

Ive said stuff like this before - I am unclear if its too esoteric and people dont get it, they do get it and dont respond or if they think the idea is whacked. I, (obviously) believe it to the core.

Clearly, you understand your relative fitness algorithmic drives, but execute them different than others due to your experience, skillset, worldview and options available to you  But the part that is missing is that you do things that make you feel good. Working 60 hours per week on getting LATOC established and eschewing other options is because you get a 'buzz' from the accomplishment. Not because youve optimized the present value of the future correctly.

We are not robots per se, because once you put two or more of us together there are myriad things that can happen, but our general hardware is pretty dang similar, which makes us robots of a sort.

You nailed it.  
TLS,

Actually it makes sense, although I've read a lot about this stuff and am fascinated by it. It would be over my head if I was new to this stuff.

My feeling is that the best ROI will be with your family, which is the closest to your genetics. Of course that feeling, as you point out, is probably little more than the product of genetic alogrithms doing what they do. It has a lot to do with my personal situation and the options available to me. If different data (say on the immediate enviornment) were fed into my genetic alogrithims, then the resulting feelings would be different.

I.E., if you put Peak Guy in my shoes or vice versa, the feelings about the ROI of peak oil activism would go through a behaviorial switch.

Best,

Matt

Is that an offer for a Peak Oil Activism exchange program?
LOL!  Reciprocal tribal altruism in motion.....
"Our reward system has been hijacked by phantom pursuits on a full planet. "

We're smarter than that.  We have evolved forebrains which have given us much more flexibility than that.  

The problem is that when we are under stress (either current or the chronic traces of early life) the fight or flight response turns off our forebrain (it evolved later, and the body sees it as unnecessary in an emergency).  We go to much simpler responses.

People who compulsively gamble, or eat, or any of the other things people do in an addictive fashion, are doing it to feel better, driven by their lizard brains.  Recovery and healing of their emotional trauma frees up their intelligence.

Intuitively we know that it's possible to be intelligent and in charge, and recoil from pessimistic assessments of our ability to handle life.  The above is why: we know at some level that something better is possible, though sometimes we get discouraged.

Activism is like anything else - people can do it compulsively, or for good reasons.  We each have to figure out what's going on for us individually, and if we're doing something for a bad reason, make adjustments.

Don't give up: we can be intelligent.

for every one person i see who says we are smarter then that, i have seen at least 10 prove otherwise.
we are of course 'smarter than that'. But that is besides the point. My former boss and partner was one of the most brilliant men Id ever met and could do mathematical calculus derivations of immense complexity in his head. But we bought him a bird feeder for christmas and he hung it in his office.

Possessing intelligence does not mean we can overcome a) ignorance or b) our limbic impulses. If we are hungry, horny, tired or enraged, you might as well throw the intelligence out the window.  We will act, then our 'large forebrain' will rationalize the best it can to come up with some BS that sounds reasonable to fit the circumstances ( "I'm sorry, I didnt realize that was the last chicken leg", "Oh, I havent slept much this week, forgive me for staring at your breasts- how rude of me")

People who compulsively gamble, or eat, or any of the other things people do in an addictive fashion, are doing it to feel better, driven by their lizard brains.

Actually, we all have the capacity and drive to seek novelty and create dopamine. Behavioral scientists have suggested that those with 'suites of genes' that enhance self-control use these drives towards success and those who cannot control these impulses, especially men, have problems with addicition to various substances (internet, gambling, porn, drugs, etc).  I recommend "American Mania"by Peter Whybrow who runs UCLAs neuroscience Semel Institute (and is on my dissertation committee). It lays out the case that Americans are particularly susceptible to this behavior due to self-selecting genetic bottlenecks that occurred in the time of our immigration to Americas shores.  Bill McKibben, in his new book "Whats Next" also delves into our culture of 'individuality' which has diverged from the slower, more social settings of our forebears just a few hundred years ago.

One of the explanatory variables, (and the jury is still out due to the newness and complexity of the scientific testing), is something called the DRD4 dopamine receptor. People that have the gene for this repeat polymorhism tend to be impulsive, seek out novelty, excitement, thrills etc. When  none exist, they create them. This trait and other personality traits, are between 40 and 60% heritable, according to personality tests using Cloningers Tridimensional Personality Quotient. (the rest being environmental).

Again, critics of this line of thinking say it smacks of biological determinism, to which I disagree. Recall one of the revolving quotes in the upper right corner of TOD from George Monbiot:

If kindness and comfort are, as I suspect, the results of an energy surplus, then, as the supply contracts, we could be expected to start fighting once again like cats in a sack. In the presence of entropy, virtue might be impossible.

We are animals but live in a culture that can change quickly if given the right signals. Which of our natures can cause the required nurture?  Think of all the pieces of the puzzle that readers of theoildrum have pieced together in the past few years. Think of 99%+ of humans that have lived and died before us, unaware of the profound broader context existing on the planet when they were born. Interesting times to be alive, and have a forebrain.  Lets continue aggressively using it before Mr Hyde reasserts control

thelastsasquatch,

Since you seem to have some knowledge in the this area, here's a question for ya -- given humans propensity for self-reinforcing behaviour, and that this tendency appears to exist in intellectual realms as well (not just physically "addictive" areas), what techniques, if any, have been discovered to convince people to expose themselves to opposing ideas? Or to approach without bias any evidence that does not reinforce their already held beliefs? Or simply to not rationalize away data or events that are inconvenient to their current thinking?

I'm just a dabbler, but it strikes me that a brain evolved to ignore reality would not have survived.  Our biases must at least leverage off the real world.  There must be some limits, some checks.  Maybe that's why we operate one until we get "a wakeup call" leading us in another direction.
Our biases are towards a "group think" mentality, which I agree has "real world" self-reinforcing traits -- you might get kicked out of the clan for "out of the box" thinking (especially if results are bad).

I'm interested in how to get around this cloistered behaviour -- how to get people to think independently.

I've always thought that some people (especially the John Wayne American icon image) think of themselves as individualists, without seeing the socal context that individualism is rooted in.

That said, I bet there is some variation between us all, just because a 'mix' is better for the survival of the rest of our genes.  There is no advantage in the children on one set of parents being uniform in this, or any other heritable trait.

Ah, the old "tableau rossa."  Blank slate.

It would appear (setting the nature debate aside) that you start out without any pre-concieved notions on the world when you're born.  But as you grow, develop, and experience things...burning your hand in a fire, stepping in dog crap...you start to form a filter through which you view life.  Fire is hot and burns, dog crap stinks.  Thus we learn to avoid getting burned, and avoid stepping in poo.  Extrapolate that out a bit and what you have are a number of experiences throughout your life that you base everything against.  And unfortunately, that lifetime of filter development must be gotten through before one can accept the peak oil reality.

I think you mean, tabula rasa: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tabula_rasa
You make good points, but you left out self-discipline (doing what you do not want to do) and responsibility. It cannot be underestimated.It is a choice, not genetically pre-determined.  
The weighting (strength) of the two might have a genetic element - tendency rather than pre-determination.
"we are of course 'smarter than that'. But that is besides the point. My former boss and partner was one of the most brilliant men Id ever met and could do mathematical calculus derivations of immense complexity in his head. But we bought him a bird feeder for christmas and he hung it in his office."

... now I want a bird feeder in my office.

LOL
Who are you calling an an-ee-mal ?
How dare you.
No. We are remade in our Lord creator's image.

If the Lord did not want us burn in oil, he wouldn't have hid it deep underseas for us to find so easily. He would've put it on Mars.

Uranium was placed here on Earth just for us so we can make intelligent use of it. Hydrocarbons were placed here on Earth just for us so we can intelligently use them too. Money was invented so we can spend it like there's no tomorrow. It is all part of the creator's grand scheme, his intelligent design. Every faith-based American knows that. To believe otherwise is to be unpatriotic. Sir have you no shame?

Yep, stone age mind, information age (and oil age) context.  What fun!
Humans have not gone any fundamental evolutionary chage in the last (X) years such as doubling our brain mass.  We are taller of course- maybe because we have a better food supply thanks to cheap oil.
Americans haven't got any taller since the generation that was born around 1945.
Our McButts are pulling us earthward
I was just reading yesterday about 10,000 year old footprints that show the guy was 6 feet tall.

The modern conception is that we compare ourselves to those hunter-gatherers who are pushed to fringe environments, while we civilized farmers take up the good land.  A stone age man in a good environment (from bone dimension and mass) resembled our elite athletes, our Olympians.

We are the weak cousins here.