http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/06/05/D8I27DP80.html

Fed policy-makers pay close attention to "core" inflation figures to get a better sense of how prices of lots of other goods and services are behaving. As these core measures have marched higher, economists have worried that surging energy prices are feeding into higher price tags for more and more items.

Although consumers, who account for two-thirds of all economic activity, are showing signs of moderating their buying appetite, businesses on the other hand are spending and investing at a robust clip, Bernanke noted.

So we know they are targeting inflation.  So there should be a 25bp increase.  In addition for those of you who wonder why things "on paper" seem great, it's due to massive corporate profits (in fact the largest ever) and they are spending a lot of it.  This funnels through the economy and is keeping things afloat on paper.