Well, it's been a nice little session of hand wringing and brow wiping, and repeated chants of roughly, "Ohhh Shiiit...we're in trouble deep!!"

What has been missing is any real discussion of "facts on the ground".  So far, it seems to be a debate about the debate.  Nothing wrong with that, as long as it doesn't go on too long...then it becomes akin to arguing about which would be the proper dinner fork to use for such an extended period that one allowed oneself starved to death!

On Carbon: First, we must say that up to the recent time frame, we (meaning the technical/industrial nations) were actually moving on somewhat the right path.  That is, increased efficiency in consumption through better combustion (i.e., fuel injection controlled by computers, combined cycle natural gas electric generation controlled by computers), and to cleaner fuels (i.e. the aforementioned natural gas, light sweet crude oil, and low sulfer Diesel engines.  

We now seem to be running up against the limit of available daily production on these "semi-benign" fuel sources, however, and that presents a sticky wicket....after having progressed over the years up the "hydro/carbon" levels, (that is to say, a move from high carbon (C) but limited hydrogen (H) fuels, from wood (high C/low H) to coal (high C/low H) to oil (a bit better, high C/but higher on H) to light sweet oil, and then to natural gas (best on the C/H equation behind only hydrogen itself (H), we are now faced with the prospect of sliding back down the ladder, to high Carbon/lower Hydrogen fuels (such as tar sand, shale oil, heavy oils).  This is one more indication of something most environmentalists hate to admit:  The best friends the environmentalists had were light light sweet crude oil and natural gas.

Peak OIl, when it occurs, will almost certainly not help the environment, as the world moves back to high carbon content fuel in an attempt to maintain current lifestyle.

This leaves the world with very limited available options:

1.Nuclear Fission
2.Nuclear Fusion

  1. Renewables
  2. Carbon Sequestration or capture on a massive scale
  3. Massive efficiency and conservation gains, including hgh speed electric rail  to maintain the transport of goods and people.

The good news is that all of the above except one are working technologies, at least on some scale.  The odd one out is nuclear fusion, which unlike wind or solar has never produced a kilowatt of salable power.  The promise is huge if it can be made to work, but we must be prepared if it does not.

I detest nuclear fission for all the normal reasons, but unless renewables can be developed very fast, it is the only real alternative for large scale power production, in particular on an island nation like the U.K.  Then if nuclear fusion ever does become a reality, the infrastructure would already be built, except for inserting the new reactor.

One can visualize a future in which the U.K. would have a set of modern nuclear reactors, with a mix of renewables and conservation to stretch the kilowatts, and importing enough LNG and propane combined with methane recovery from waste for what road transportation was still needed and any additional electric power, but with the bulk of goods and people moved about by electricified rail.   Great Britain is not that large of a country, and the rail infrastructure could be easily recovered from it's decay of the last couple of decades (much easier done there than in the U.S.)  Increased strategic storage for natural gas and propane would also assist in energy security and planning.

This leaves us with the above mention "massive efficiency gains", by way of very modern appliances in homes, insulation, solar hot water, etc.

It is not an unworkable situation for the U.K., and in the long run, the island geography might pay off in creating a "defense-able" nation that would be "carbon clean"  (the above prescription is the only way the U.K. has a hope of making the Kyoto Protocol mandates) and sustainable with it's current population (no population growth, however, but like the rest of Europe, the birthrate is already dropping in the U.K.)

Note that many of the above methods can also apply to other island states (Japan, Cyprus and Malta come to mind, and our U.S. state of Hawaii) and on mainland European countries (the French are actually going in the direction we have discussed, but please, Brits, don't dismiss an idea just because the French use it! :-)

So we are not ready to give up on the future of our Limey cousins yet, they still have a few cards to play, and cheers to Jonathon Porritt for pointing up that the changes must start now, for the United Kingdom and for all of us.

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

TII (RC), thanks for the long post.  The problem I have right now is that we know that there is so much that could (and should) be done to mitigate the situation both for UK and globally but, unfortunately, little of real substance seems to be happening.

Many of UK policies seem to be 'stuck in a 1970's timewarp'.  Taking a local issue - I should be devoting my time pressing local officials and politicians to prepare for declining supplies of oil (and especially gas) in UK; instead I find myself having to help oppose a $1bn major highway scheme which the businesses and politicians in my area seem determined to persue.  I number of us have written objections citing reducing availability and increasing cost of oil, increased CO2 emissions from extra road traffic generated etc but are either met with silence or the standard response that 'the new road will benefit the region's economy'.  It's this kind of official attitude right across the UK which leads us to believe that nothing really will change until the sheer scale and cost of energy imports renders the situation impossible to ignore.  By then, of course, we will have lost precious years (and wasted even more precious energy) which we could have used to redesign infrastructure to be much more sustainable.

With regard to UK railways most of the mainline routes were retained at the time of the 1960's 'Beeching Cuts' and several key routes have received major investment in track and signalling in past decade.  Even in the (anti-rail) Thatcher years investment still took place, for example the 393 miles from London to Edinburgh was electrified.  In the past decade UK rail has experienced passenger km growth of 40%, the fastest rail growth in Europe.  Provided the planning process is streamlines (which will almost certainly happen in an energy descent scenario) relaying rural rail tracks would be relatively simple given necessary will and resources.  Unlike the 1800's when such routes were first built signalling technology has seen huge advances with result that reconstructed branch lines could well be single track with passing loops and will thus take up much less land than their predecessors.

As of yet, however, few rural branch lines are being reopened although a 35 mile reopening from Edinburgh to the Borders is planned for 2008.  In the meantime plans for highway and aviation expansion continue apace.

Sounds familiar. We are fighting a proposed ring road extension and an airport extension. The airport is based on projections done in 2000/01 with constant $25 oil and air fares declining 2% pa in real terms. Although thiscan be demonstrated to be false it would crater many of the jobs associated with consulting on airport expansion etc. and is therefore hard to get the projections revised. I completely agree that if these projects go ahead it is a further waste of the energy and resources we do have left.
On a more hopeful note Cardiff Bay is putting in an advanced ULTra system, as is Heathrow. Try and ignore the irony of the latter!