The value of his point appears a few paragraphs later:

The new participants, investors and speculators, to the world's two trillion dollar-a-year oil market are hastening the adjustment process that has become so urgent with the virtual elimination of the world supply buffer. With the demand from the investment community, oil prices have moved up sooner than they would have otherwise. In addition, there has been a large increase in oil inventories. In response to higher prices, producers have increased production dramatically and some consumption has been scaled back. Even though crude oil productive capacity is still inadequate, it too has risen significantly over the past two years in response to price.

Surely we all agree that it is valuable to have prices rise early in the case of oil production peaking? That looks to me like the point of what you were referring to. I'm not sure I see that much evidence that "producers have increased production dramatically" and "crude oil productive capacity ... has risen significantly." as he puts it. While I would agree that the rate of oil consumption increase has at least temporarily declined, I doesn't look as though consumption has been reduced, if that's what is meant by "scaled back."

The only ways for the market to balance are through increased supply or demand destruction. If supply increases are extremely difficult or impossible (or as Greenspan puts it, "Returning to such a level of spare capacity appears wholly out of reach for the foreseeable future, however."), then it seems like anything that hastens demand destruction without destroying economies is a good thing. Investors buying futures and raising prices works just as well as a gas tax.

To sum the major point of the speech up to just three words:

-Expect increased volatility-

We are just seeing markets at work. As more people think we have a problem (exactly what tod is all about) investors (speculators to some) begin to bet on higher oil prices in the future. the act of betting brings the best guess for future prices to the present, which in turn stresses hummer mfrs and rewards prius ones.

So; tod and others talk up po, a growing number of investors listen, some act (like me) - both on account of po talk and also because of the lack of spare capacity, both oil and oil company share prices rise, a few of the smaller companies manage to expand production (too little to affect price significantly, but usefully increasing profits), and the public squeals but slowly, reluctantly, begins to respond to the prod. Actually, the squeeze is quite gradual - we probably wont get to $10/g until 2010 or later. (Not everybody at tod appreciates markets or the hidden hand; such individuals might consider what other action, if any, that society could and would take that would be equally successful in reducing consumption.)

Incidentally, all this came before. In the seventies the world oil price rose 9x, and during the period the fraction of the S&P500 held by energy companies rose from 6% to 30%. This value is so far only up to around 8%. When the public at large begins to believe in po the rise may pick up speed...

> what other action, if any, that society could and would take that would be equally successful in reducing consumption.

Although I believe in markets, may I suggest the following:

  1. Give any railroad that electrifies a permanent exemption on property taxes for the line electrified.

  2. RRs get tax credits and/or access to tax free 30 year bonds for expansions to RR infrastructure (tracks & rolling stock).

  3. Cities that build Urban Rail get 90% federal matching if they follow the federal process, 75% if they just build it.

  4. Likewise for electric trolley buaes

  5. A new gas tax of 1.5 cents/gallon increase each month (with inflation adjustments) for 20 years ($3.60/gallon) with most of the tax rebated back through reduced payroll taxes.

  6. A modest but growing carbon tax for 20 years.

http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2006-05a.htm