The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: June 8, 2006

220 comments on DrumBeat: June 8, 2006

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Leanan on June 8, 2006 - 9:30am

From Supply Chain Digest:

Is Saudi Arabia Running Out of Oil?

Latest comments from oil minister on declining production lead "peak oil" theorists to say "I told you so!"
The News: Experts continue to debate whether there are signs Saudi Arabian oil output has peaked.
The Impact: If true, another sign that global oil output has or soon will peak, while demand grows, meaning much higher prices in the near future and dramatic supply chain impacts.
The Story: Pundits of every stripe have been heavily debating in the past few months whether there are signs that oil output from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer, has slowed and may indicate it has reached peak output level that can only decline from here.
As we've discussed a few times in Supply Chain Digest, "peak oil" theorists predict even greater rises in fuel costs than we seen in the last 12 months are inevitable, which would dramatically change the way we need to think about our supply chains.

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Jussi on June 8, 2006 - 9:43am

It´s interesting how the article is titled "Is SA running out of oil?", as if peaking was somehow similar to totally running out...

IMHO SA has most likely peaked, although there is a slight chance something else could explain why they´re not producing as much now as they were 6 months ago. Earlier there was some discussion about how fungible oil really is, and I´m pretty sure we will find out fairly soon whether oil is becoming more of a strategic asset and less of a fungible commodity.

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Leanan on June 8, 2006 - 9:49am

What I found interesting is that this seems to be a pretty mainstream, industry-oriented newsletter. Yet they accept peak oil.

Reading their other peak oil stories, I get the feeling that Matthew Simmons and Richard Rainwater have convinced a lot of people who would brush off Kunstler and Heinberg as leftwing nuts and who wouldn't understand a word Deffeyes was saying. Corporate America respects people who make money. For that reason, Simmons and Rainwater have cred with them.

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Jussi on June 8, 2006 - 9:59am

I totally agree, I myself have managed to convince some people that PO is not so far away in the future by referring to Simmons and other business-minded people. OTOH, I would hardly go so far as to describe Kunstler as a leftist; he generally seems to support American wars in the Middle East. While he does say the war against Iraq might not have been necessary if it weren´t for the American addiction to oil (which even GW acknowledges), recently he appeared to have bought into the pro-war propaganda according to which Iran must be attacked lest it destroy Israel and, possibly, many other countries with its imaginary nuclear weapons...

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Johnny Peak Oil on June 8, 2006 - 1:07pm

There is no left in this country, just different shades of red.

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tedman on June 8, 2006 - 1:22pm

Yep...shades of liberalism of the oldy modly classical sort. No real labor or socialist political power at all in USA.

There are a number true blue lefties out there among the higher-ed set, some fringe journalists (e.g., Andrew Cockburn)...but I wouldn't say they have much political power. Certainly no real lefties that I know of in the USA PO community. Would be happy to be proven wrong though....

Though, there are plenty of autocrats, plutocrats, oligarchs of various stripes IMO.

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fleam on June 8, 2006 - 10:51pm

There's no Proud Working Class in the US, no mass of people who are proud of being able to turn a wrench or sweat a pipe - everyone wants to be middle class. This is freakishly strange but the Repubs have stepped into the breach and are seen by the rank and file as the working man's party much more than the Dems are - perhaps it's some harkening back to to Lincoln splitting logs or something.

Kerry and that wife-thing tossing ears of corn, fearfully, at the prole horde and retreating to one of their manses doesn't help the image - Gore's an elitist too but the Dems could have won with him. Heck I may have even voted for him, and my help or not, it would have been a landslide. Now in 08 the Dems are going to run Hitlery, and lose spectacularly. I keep it no secret that I'm a registered Repub but it's still no fun to step into a boxing ring with some milquetoast who's stuffed on finger sandwiches and three sheets to the wind on moet et chandon. There's no fight. It's no victory when the other side is so lame.

We'll never have a 1930s style working-man's Dem party again, but if we did, I'd switch in a second. These types of people's leftism, or leftish populism, are probably why European countries are better for the average Joe to live in.

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Richard on June 8, 2006 - 11:11pm

Fleam,

Do you know Godwin's Law?

You may want to have a look.

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fleam on June 8, 2006 - 11:47pm

That Party wasn't Left, they were Right, very Right. That's how they got the support of the big industrialists etc - they were the counter to the radical USSR types that were running around in the 1930s.

Obviously if I say I'd seriously consider voting for Gore I'm not talking about advocating the kind of left party that puts on brown shirts and marches in the streets. I like the kind that's about Joe Lunch Pail getting a job, not a dagger and some shiny boots.

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Richard on June 9, 2006 - 12:51am

Fleam

Actually, I was referring to this piece of your post

Now in 08 the Dems are going to run Hitlery, and lose spectacularly.

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fleam on June 9, 2006 - 1:14am

Oh, that - that's a lot of people's pet name for Hillary. Heck they were telling a joke making fun of W and Mrs Bush and it had Hillary in it, and even they said Hitlery I'd swear.

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fleam on June 9, 2006 - 1:15am

(Joke was on Air America Radio, ostensibly Left)

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Richard on June 9, 2006 - 1:58am

Fluim,

Do you think it is ok to compare people to Nazi's? Even if it is just for fun?

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AlanfromBigEasy on June 9, 2006 - 9:18am

I called the Blackwater security in New Orleans "Little Nazis" and I think it is an acceptable and accurate use of the term.

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fallout on June 9, 2006 - 10:29am

If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, and acts like a duck.....

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Substrate on June 9, 2006 - 11:08pm

"It's no victory when the other side is so lame."

It's no victory when both sides are so lame.

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fallout on June 8, 2006 - 1:18pm

'Supply Chain Digest' core readership is heavily supply-side oriented (JIT, sourcing, distribution, etc), hence they view the world correctly as it actually is, i.e. resource-finite, rather than as others even within the same building (i.e. sales) would see it, i.e. all things possible, under the right economic conditions.

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Leanan on June 8, 2006 - 1:37pm

Thanks for the info. I hadn't thought of it that way.

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gloumu on August 18, 2006 - 9:02am

QGK1 QGK2 QGK3 QGK4 QGK5 QGK6 QGK7 QGK8 QGK9 QGK10 QGK11 QGK12 QGK13 QGK14 QGK15 QGK16 QGK17 QGK18 QGK19 QGK20 QGK21 QGK22 QGK23 QGK24 QGK25 QGK26 QGK27 QGK28 QGK29 QGK30 QGK31 QGK32 QGK33 QGK34 QGK35 QGK36 QGK37 QGK38 QGK39 QGK40 QGK41 QGK42 QGK43 QGK44 QGK45 QGK46 QGK47 QGK48 QGK49 QGK50 QGK51 QGK52 QGK53 QGK54 QGK55 QGK56 QGK57 QGK58 QGK59 QGK60 QGK61 QGK62 QGK63 QGK64 QGK65 QGK66 QGK67 QGK68 QGK69 QGK70 QGK71 QGK72 QGK73 QGK74 QGK75 QGK76 QGK77 QGK78 QGK79 QGK80 QGK81 QGK82 QGK83 QGK84 QGK85 QGK86 QGK87 QGK88 QGK89 QGK90 QGK91 QGK92 QGK93 QGK94 QGK95

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westexas on June 8, 2006 - 10:37am

The CEO of Rowan Companies (big offshore drilling contractor) was on CNBC yesterday. He said that they are being offered four year contracts in the Middle East. Basically, the only question he is asking is "how soon do you want the rig there?"

He said that by the end of this year the number of jack-up rigs in the GOM will be down by 50% from recent highs (all moved to the Middle East).

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Leanan on June 8, 2006 - 10:40am

Holy crap! o_O

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odograph on June 8, 2006 - 10:55am

Well, given a choice, I'd rather use up their oil first.

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tate423 on June 8, 2006 - 11:30am

Good point. I hear that debated about ANWR and get a kick out of it. Many people think we should wait until the end to use it, while we use up everyone elses. I think it may happen by circumstances rather than choice.

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MUDLOGGER on June 8, 2006 - 2:26pm

No hurricanes in the Persian Gulf. Saudi will pay top dollar on long charters. Shallow water - good for older jack-ups.

Makes sense, so long as they can protect them from threats.
But there is plenty of Navy knocking around in the Persian Gulf.

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oilmanbob on June 8, 2006 - 9:26pm

Rowan seems to be a great company. Their equipment is clean and in excellent repair, their employees are happy. And, the western Gulf is pretty well drilled up at shallow and medium water depths,and a lot of their older rigs can go over there.

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MUDLOGGER on June 9, 2006 - 7:23am

Older: not as in 'old and knackered', but as in older (earlier)generation. As opposed to deep water semis, drillships etc..

I spent 3 years on the Charlie Rowan in the 80's.

Halcyon days...

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capik on September 26, 2006 - 5:22pm

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220 comments on DrumBeat: June 8, 2006

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