I agree with WestTexas that we are headed for deflation. Stuart makes an excellent case and I respect his opinion, but consumer spending is going to dry up (as the savings rate chart implies). Bernanke can print all the money he wants, but unless he gives it away, I don't see how it will create inflation.

Perhaps we will have initial inflation when the recession begins, but once the economy spirals downward, deflation is more likely. There will be some items that are expensive, such as energy and some consumer goods, but prices are not going to inflate every year. Wait until you try to sell your assets, you can expect cheap prices.

I've been studying the future since 1989 and it's going to be worse than people imagine from 2007-2012. Here at TOD you don't realize how many people in the New Age community have know about this coming collapse. GNP is about to peak and begin a downward decline. Corporations are going to begin losing money and going out of business. Unemployment is going to skyrocket. It's going to get ugly, then uglier.

People think housing is going to drop 20-25%. That is way too optimistic. Housing will soon begin dropping like a rock. By 2009, prices will have dropped more than 50% and new constuction will have stopped because of excess inventory. Unemployment will be 20% by 2010. With such a huge collapse of the economy, I don't see how inflation can exist.

You could be right, however, price inflation and deflation of assets can coexist. The USA is part of a global economy (unlike the 1930s). The dollar itself could easily collapse in a severe downturn and if the dollar collapses any imported product will soar in price (even if very few Americans have the money to buy it). The USA is 25% of the global economy (in the early 1950s it was 75%). Even in a depression, I wouldn't expect cheap commodities or cheap imported goods (IMO).