89 comments on Interesting Economics
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GAIA Host Collective
If you want to support a case for central planning please let me know where you believe such a system has worked to the benefit of the people.
A few additional points: (1) Money in the middle ages was mostly hard money, not "currency". Dishonest lords still play money games. The lords are now Federal Government and the the Financial Sector both of which have grown out of proportion in the last several decades. Both groups are IMO too large for the continued well being of the country. What will reverse the trend, I do not know. (2) Projects with very long paybacks are made much less certain when inflation must be priced into the picture [a moving target made up of not just anticipated revenue stream, but fluctuating real values for those revenue streams.] They become much harder to finance [at least in theory] as who knows what if any value the principle would have upon maturity of a 100 bond. A hundred years ago there was no expectation of a general and persistant inflationary trend. We got that with the birth of the Fed in 1913. (3) If you want to encourage immediate consumption and discourage savings, a "demurrage" sounds like just the ticket. Party hardy. Eat the seed corn. (4) Until our fractional reserve banking reserve requirements got so out of wack, savings were important as the base for the money supply. Now debt is its own merit bringing forth new debt. (5) If booms and busts [which are largely monetary phenomena] were not so prevalent, the desire to clear cut would be a less rational response. During the boom times, the theory is to get what you can as soon as you can, becasue the bust if coming. Most participants in the oil industry see the current price cycle as the prelude to another bust or at least a significant softening as supply overwhelms demand.
Where is Sailorman when you need him? He seemed to just disappear a month or two back. I hope he is well.
Your quote: "If you want to support a case for central planning please let me know where you believe such a system has worked to the benefit of the people."
I claim no economic expertise, but perhaps the Japanese Edo Period (1603-1867) fits this central planning requirement and was largely a peaceful, sustainable society too:
http://energybulletin.net/5140.html
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
The issue of discouraging savings is slightly misleading; you can still prepare for the future by investing in enterprises that are likely to give continuous returns - like the example of a sustainable forest. Just because the "savings" aren't sitting in a bank account doesn't mean they are non existant. This model is already used anyway by pension funds, so it's hardly a radical suggestion.
Central planning is another misleading tag. It makes people think of communism. The central banks already try to centrally plan the money supply, but they do so via the indirect mechanism of base rates or the even more indirect mechanism the Fed uses. So this "central planning", if you can call it that, already exists but it's not as effective as it could be.
Investments and savings aren't the same thing. Each serves a purpose. Investments sometimes work out ... but often don't. The function of savings is / should be to provide a store of value and to allow for accumulation of assets that can be invested.
Try buying or building a small business beyond the level of the micro loan approaches [used in some third world countries -- often successfully] without some personal savings. Then complicate that situation with a world where loans are not available either because there is no allocation process or because no one is willing to loan with no incentive, but with the certainty of at least some defaults.
I personally have a business that I financed through savings. It hasn't made me rich, but it might. What I can attest to is that without savings I would have lost the business by now as almost nothing in business goes perfectly. Think $10 oil when you were planning on $20 oil. Think lightning strikes, casing collapses, sudden water break throughs, rivers changing courses. Try to survive a few bad years with nothing in reserve, and where partial liquidation of the investment would result in pennies on the dollar.
You are correct about traditional defined benefit pension plans being investors not savers. The trusts are investors. The sponsors have mostly investor attributes. The plan participants see pensions as savings ... but they aren't. The plan participants, the plan sponsor, and the PBGC are at all at risk for the results of the trust returns.
The move toward defined contribution plans makes the new plan participants solely at risk. Sometimes they win. Sometimes they lose. By and large, the political left is more likely to be outraged by turning pension plan participants into non professional, part time, minority investors. I have no real opinion one way or the other about the societal good of this ongoing change, but do not believe that the corporations are doing this to benefit the plan participants.
You are correct about central planning. There is a lot of central planning in the U.S.A. Most of it IMO doesn't work too well. Central planning tends to work best on an ad hoc basis where there is a monumental goal and because of the disasterous consequences of failur, the other consequences [collateral damage from the ad hoc activities] can largely be ignored for what the powers that be regard as the greater good. Central planning can range from these sorts of efforts [e.g. winning World War II or maybe at some point mitigating peak oil]; to the the more mundane and contiunous picking of winners and losers through tax policy and grants; setting of interest rates through the actions of the "independent" Federal Reserve; to the true command economies like the old Soviet model.
Let's just give the process a new name. It is no longer "Central Planning". It is hereforth named "Intelligent Economic Design". --the label is the logic
Central planning has given us, the Five Year Plans of Mao and Stalin, as well as the continuing shining examples of North Korea and Cuba. As I have noted elsewhere in this thread, there may be a place for central planning in the really big areas where an ad hoc effort may alleviate the purely reactive aspects of a pure market based solution by implementing the appropriate approach in advance of the immentent, but belated price signals. I have labelled myself a reactionary, but I believe that I am in reality someone who believes that failed experiments should be considered failed experiments not as something that merely needed more time, more money, more civic spirit, more ____ ???? [fill in the blank.]
Intelligent design? The concept of irreducible complexity has some apparent merit, but the number or opportunities for the monkeys with keyboards to produce the biological equivalent of Hamlet by random chance is indeed beyond comprehension. The jury is out, but if a believer needs a scientific basis to believe, this is as good a basis as I can see. [My personal opinion is that matters of faith are inherently matters of faith.]