<Pre-vacation thoughts The Oil Drum DrumBeat: July 11, 2006>

117 comments on Trouble South of the Border -- Mexico's Oil Production

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buzzinator on July 10, 2006 - 5:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
This possibitity may, at least in part, explain the call in Congress for a large fence with armed guards on the US-Mexico border. The interplay of this depletion along with the problems at Ghawar get mind boggling.  It's like watching a horror movie while it's actually happening in real time. Even if PEMEX is allowed to take on foreign investors to locate more oil, it will  be years before we see any appreciable production- all while the worldwide depletion bomb keeps ticking.
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Dave Cohen on July 10, 2006 - 5:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well! I didn't think about that angle.
This possibitity may, at least in part, explain the call in Congress for a large fence with armed guards on the US-Mexico border.
Worth thinking about, depending on your level of paranoia and how much thinking ahead these politicians are capable of...
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LevinK on July 10, 2006 - 6:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Actually this was my first association. And I don't think the idea is paranoic - I actually think that when the cheap labor lobbysts become outnumbered by those fearing immigration flood, this idea will actually be implemented.

FWIW EU is tightening its borders, USA following suit is just a matter of time.

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Fire Temple on July 10, 2006 - 10:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Frankly I don't see the relationship between Mexican oil production and emmigraion.  If crude production drops, Mexico will cut back on exports way before touching domestic consumption (c.f. Indonesia).

In other words, U.S. economy will suffer before Mexico's.  And the jobs that are bringing Mexicans here (construction, food service, etc.) will be among the first to go.

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Dead Cat Bounce on July 11, 2006 - 1:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The Mexican government collects roughly a third of its total annual revenue from PEMEX. Of that, approximately 60 percent comes from Cantarell alone. If the field's production declines   anywhere from 8 to 15 percent a year going forward, you can bet it's going to have an impact on the 40 percent of the Mexican population already living in poverty.

Even if there are fewer jobs available here, that won't prevent a mass exodus to this country by those desparate for work.  

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jim burke on July 12, 2006 - 8:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I live on the Arizona/Sonora border. The border fence has increased in size dramatically in the past year or so. From urban centers outwards, troops weld up used military landing strip sections, of corregated, perforated steel approx. 12' tall and 6' wide. These peter out about a mile outside town (leftover landing pads are now used up?), and one sees a collage of ugly steel used parts welded together.

In the arroyos, they lay a thick pad of concrete, and sink 4" X 6" steel posts into it, in an offset pattern which allows runoff and small animals to pass, but which is too close together for humans. And on the wide plains, they augment the 8 strand barbed wire (what's left of it) with steel railroad rails, welded up to stand at sternum level to prevent drive throughs. There is a dirt road on this side, and one on that side, and the Border Patrol tries to shadow the coyotes driving vans packed with people on the other side. And the biggest "improvement" is stadium lighting for several miles (and growing by 1/2 mile at a clip), to light it up and allow agents to track and catch some portion of the immigrants.

I see no evidence of the "triple fence" Congress is talking about.

I figure people will continue to pour through until employment stops growing and this country starts deporting illegals. If there are no jobs, immigrants will stop coming.

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GreyZone on July 10, 2006 - 8:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
However, that is not what the administration and other major forces in this country want. Indeed, they want an armed fence on the southern border of Mexico. I believe that George Ure coined the term "Mexusnada" to describe the ongoing efforts to broaden NAFTA and create a single unified North American free trade bloc as a precursor to a single unified North American political entity.
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eric blair on July 10, 2006 - 8:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
create a single unified North American free trade bloc as a precursor to a single unified North American political entity.

How about this take:
Such a union, by refusing to join NAFTA, would wreck Bilderberg's long-standing goal of expanding NAFTA throughout the Western Hemisphere and evolving it into an "American Union" patterned after the European Union. The dollar would become the common currency of the American Union.

And the key part:
The dollar would become the common currency of the American Union.

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=4641

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geewiz on July 10, 2006 - 11:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
As taken from a Twighlight Zone episode, Rod Sterling stands up and says "picture this, if you will, The USA removes it's borders to Canada and Mexico, Canada secures the most nothern of borders and Mexico secures it's most southern borders. Where the 3 countries are intertwined and enter into a NAFTA PLUS agreement as we enter the Twighlight Zone"

Nafta Plus

scary stuff! and this all started last August in the Waco Summit, (and would have been the topic of MSM) just before hurricane Katrina hit. But Katrina stole the thunder, and it was all brushed under the carpet.
This is why (as I see it) the administration has done nothing to secure the borders. They already know how this is going to play out. Oh, we can moan and groan, put up a Minute Man Project, but in the end, the politicians have it all wrapped up. We have no say/control on how this can be stopped. As far as the politicians are concerned, this Nafta Plus WILL happen!

Geez, we live in interesting times!  

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tom deplume on July 11, 2006 - 1:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
If we let Mexicans to freely come and work in the US with with what little legal protections American workers have; minimum wage, workers comp, unemployment insurance, employers requirement to pay their share to Social Security and Medicare the number of Mexicans working here would probably go down. Opening the border is the last thing the Chamber of Commerce and National Association of Manufacturers want.
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totoneila on July 11, 2006 - 3:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello Dave,

Speaking of paranoia.....or is it fact?  Obrador just released videos that he claims prove vote tampering:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/11/world/americas/11mexico.html

I hope Mexico can find a way to settle the rising conflict peacefully.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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totoneila on July 12, 2006 - 12:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello TODers,

Here is the latest update from the Washington Post:

AMLO unveils his Ammo

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/mexicovotes/2006/07/amlo_unveils_his_ammo.html

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Shortly before midnight Monday, lawyers for the left-leaning former mayor submitted a formal challenge of nearly 900 pages and called on Mexico's electoral tribunal (similar to the Supreme Court) to demand a recount of every single one of the 41 million votes cast July 2.

If that doesn't happen, Mexico could see an "insurrection," according to one of López Obrador's top aides.

"The warning by Gerardo Fernandez Noroña, the campaign's chief spokesman, was the most explicit high-level threat that the challenger's struggle to overturn his razor-thin defeat could erupt in civil disobedience and violence," reports the Los Angeles Times, which had the benefit of late deadlines. "Fernandez said that if the seven-judge Federal Electoral Tribunal upheld the result without a full recount and allowed Calderón to take office, "we are not going to let him govern."
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Mexico has historically been prone to revolutions.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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totoneila on July 12, 2006 - 1:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello TODers,

Latest update from CounterPunch:

http://www.counterpunch.org/ross07122006.html
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History is What Comes Next
Mexico Splits in Half: the Election Hits the Streets

A full week after the most viciously contested presidential election in its modern history, a Florida-sized fraud looms over the Mexican landscape and the nation has been divided almost exactly in half along political, economic, geographical and racial lines.

Mexico has always been two lands ­ "Illusionary Mexico" and "Profound Mexico" is how sociologist Guillermo Bonfils described the great divide between rich and poor. But now, should it be allowed to stand, right-winger Felipe Calderon's severely questioned 243.000 vote victory over left-wing populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) will split the country exactly in half between the industrial north and the impoverished, highly indigenous south with each winning 16 states ­ although the southern states won by Lopez Obrador, who also won Mexico City by a million votes, constitute 54% of the population.

Moreover, the disputed election pits an indignant Indian and mestizo underclass that believes AMLO was swindled out of the presidency by electoral fraud against a wealthy white conservative minority that controls the nation's media, its banks, and apparently, the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE), Mexico's maximum electoral authorities. Lopez Obrador charges the IFE and its president Luis Carlos Ugalde with orchestrating Calderon's uncertain triumph.

In Mexico, the past has equal value with the present and the memory of what came before can sometimes be what comes next. These are history-making moments south of the Rio Bravo. North Americans need to pay attention.
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AMLO is encouraging the largest protest march in Mexico's history this Sunday July 16, and is also threatening to have all PRD officials exit their govt. positions setting off a constitutional crisis.

Buckle-up folks--this could get ugly.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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joule on July 10, 2006 - 6:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
buzzinator -

Looks like those detention facilities (an undisclosed number at undisclosed locations) that the Bush regime is paying $385 million for Halliburton KBR to build are going to come in handy after all once Mexico collapses economically and the cross-border flood begins.

And if that doesn't come to pass, those detention facilities won't go to waste. They can always be used as a gulag of mini Guantánamos for dealing with native-born  political dissidents.

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117 comments on Trouble South of the Border -- Mexico's Oil Production

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