I may post about doom and gloom but I'd love to not see peak oil happen. I wish it was in 30 or better 100 years because I'm convinced it will be very bad for mankind.

If you think Peak Oil now will be bad, what it would be like in another 30 years (let alone 100!) doesn't bear thinking about.  The longer we have before the peak, the further down the path of unsustainable development the world will go.  What we really need is Peak Oil now (or, as some TOD commentatorrs have been saying, Dec05) and then a slow slide down.

We may very well have reached the Peak & I certainly hope so, though I'm not yet willing to bet that we have.  Will we have a fast (8% p/a) slide or a slow (2% p/a) one?  There's a world of difference in the consequences and I'd like it to be the latter, but if it's the former, I'd rather live to see a peak & an 8% slide now than have my kids see it in 30 years.

The fact that many large fields may be going to suffer 8% annual production falls is quite bad news.  I seem to remember, however, someone with more maths & technical knowledge making a case that, even if individual fields are going to decline at 8%, the pattern of new fields coming on will mean a much slower overall decline - which which would be much better.

As far as having new fields come on line through opening up new exploration provinces, I think it would be best if it happened later rather than earlier.  The last thing we want is to drive down the price of oil so far that people can think it's safe to buy a SUV again & Peak Oilers are just a bunch of Chicken Littles.  It's best if the oil comes on stream when the whole world knows that using it frivolously is a crime and we have to treat it as an energy bank for the transition to a sustainable future.