 | DrumBeat: July 14, 2006 | The Oil Drum | The Course of Our Lives WILL Be Determined by the First Derivative of a Function |  |
78 comments on Potential Impact of Cantarell's Decline on Mexico's Oil Production
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78 comments on Potential Impact of Cantarell's Decline on Mexico's Oil Production
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Three Points:
(1) Based on the WSJ article (which was based on leaked internal Pemex reports), the remaining oil column at Cantarell--between the water leg and the gas cap--is about 825'. It is thinning at the rate of about 300' per year. The worst case internal (Pemex) decline rate estimate is about 40% per year.
(2) Virtually all reservoirs are more permeable to gas and water than to oil. Heavier oil is more viscous than light oil. So, one big difference between Ghawar (light oil) and Cantarell (heavy oil) is that it is easier for the gas and water to bypass the oil at Cantarell than it is at Ghawar.
(3) The easy oil is gone at both Cantarell and Ghawar. From this point forward, high production rates are the enemy of high (remaining) recovery rates. So, they can have higher recovery rates, or higher short term production rates--but not both.