251 comments on Peak Oil and L.A.
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"You have to start somewhere."
I would have hoped for the dream visit....RR of TOD to stop by the shops of CalCars.
http://www.calcars.org
Someday, it may have been listed in the history books as one of the signpost events of the birth of the dawning super efficient design driven era...if it had happened :-(
To paraphrase Dylan, "The losers now will be later to win, because the times they are a changin'..."
(and if you think you can get by with putting America's young behind a mule's azz when we have the tools still in the chest still unused and untried, you gotta' nuther think comin'....:-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
I am a big fan of CalCars. I have plugged that website at least a dozen times. I think a combination of solar and PHEVs would be a viable transportation option in a post-peak world.
RR
What is hard to realize about LA is the fact that it is, simply, a seemingly endless suburb. Here in New England there are at least some breaks between towns, some open spaces, patches of seemingly wild forest. But LA is just endless, densly populated suburbs. To escape you literally have to climb mountains or get on a boat. Competing with 12 million people to do so. LA will be Kunstler's best example, I'm afraid.
Seriously I think the people clogging the freeways are working 50-60 hour weeks, getting their news from radio, and hoping everything works out. It takes time to see beyond the MSM and associated advertisements, even if you have a sense of concern.
On progress though, I think RR should have tracked the Prius/Hummer ratio. Down here it started Hummer-heavy, but esp. on weekdays it's now very Prius. I think a few more Hummers get pulled out on weekends, but maybe that says their mileage is limited.
And beyond that, in the far future, a lot of LA is walkable. People (like that clerk) don't know what's there because they've got a driving map in their head, not a walking map.
BTW, remember those articles on the energy efficiency of NYC?
If you can truck food there, you can truck food anywhere ;-)
What NYC really currently lacks is a good freight rail connection to Manhattan, but barges from Staten Island, New Jersey and Brooklyn could carry a good portion of the truck load. The Harbor Tunnel would be a great improvement over the current stream of trucks from Brooklyn to NJ.
Every area has something different. NYC has many unique issues that are completely different from LA.
My wife and I are presently building a homestead on (scarce)floodplain land in the southwest, and I can attest that it is extremely difficult, expensive and time consuming. Even creating a garden takes years to bring online -- and few people even try any more. We are doing it primarily because we enjoy it, hard work and all. Insulating ourselves from possible "overshoot and collapse" is secondary. Our friends and family admire what we are creating, but generally say "but I couldn't do that myself." Because few people will put in hard work if they don't have to.
When asked "how should I prepare (for P.O.)?" I don't know what to say. It's like being asked "how can I lose weight?" The answer is "change your lifestyle," which does not gain you many friends.
I applaud RR for proseletizing. Understanding must come before action. But I have a hard time seeing right action coming out of this. Just as people would rather take a med than change their lifestyle (with high blood pressure, say), they would rather continue their lifestyle by "other means," such as war. If you look at the Middle East right now, it is difficult to imagine the US going through all this trouble except to get oil by virtually any means possible.
Basically for a lot of levels of decline short of crash, that's the kind of place to be. If you really belive crash, avoid the rush ... go to the mountains of Peru or something.
For the most part, the agricultural bonanza has been paved ... and suburbia has run amuk. It is still a great place for a lot of things, but population pressures have defined the highest use as near endless suburbia. [Oh well ... maybe in another lifetime or on mankind's next planet.]
BTW, for purposes of full disclosure, I have lived in LA County and it appears highly likely that I will do so again in the very near future [gasp / sigh / does anyone know a good pychologist in the Westwood / Santa Monica area?]
I was just throwing a word out there for bulk transport and used "truck." The fact (that casual pessimists) ignore is that all the bulk transport methods are far more efficient (on a per cargo-ton basis) than personal transportation. At the same time they are of course vital.
In various degrees of powerdown the ships, trains, and trucks will keep moving ... even as people carpool, bicycle, and walk, their way to work and shopping.
... and if you want to get into which regions have agriculture ... don't pick a fight with California.
-best
Look here for more info.
BTW, there is nothing easier to blow than a pipeline or a pumping station, whether for water or oil. I have to wonder if Al Qaeeda has this type of enterprise planned for this summer or the next one. Clearly, you would want to do it when reservoirs are low to maximize panic.
Drinking water you could bring in by sea or train or trucks, but So. Cal needs huge amounts of H2O from far away to keep from going back to a desert.
BTW, back in the day I did some work for Uncle Sam. One reason for my heavy F.B.I. dossier is that I had "God Clearance." If you do not know what that is, then you do not need to know.
Sorry about that;-)
What was the 1940's sci-fi story?
I thought a bit more about the idea. Would it really be all that devastating? Sure, pipelines are easy to blow up. But are they that hard to bring back online? Seems to me they'd get it fixed before anybody died of thirst. Or would they discover that they had melted down the last batch of proper-gauge pipe?
Originality is exceedingly rare--except when it comes to making mistakes.
BTW, when discussing ideas for terrorists, I follow the Tom Clancy rule of purposely presenting a notion in a way that it will fail; in other words, I never ever give any details that might help anybody to actually do evil.
(BTW, on the web there are some hilariously wrong instructions on how to make explosives. Somebody probably planted them with the intent that bomber/terrorists blow themselves up while mixing nitroglycerin or whatever.)
Yeah, I've noticed that. Also, the instructions for bombs in the old Anarchist's Cookbook will blow you up...exactly wrong.
My conclusion about what to to about it is that vital services need their own emergency generators, preparations for icelanding random parts of the grid is a good thing and the same is true for emergency stockpiles of spare parts and emergency repair groups. Doing something about the possible terrorists is much harder.
My conclusion about why no such terrorist attack has been done is that intelligent terrorists look for attacks that have a large symbolic value and not attacks whose sum of small inconveniences and costs add up to very large sums. They are attacking symbols, not the basic and resilant economy.
The grid risk is locally handled in a few ways, none of them wholly satisfactory for a defence nerd.
The main grid gets a fairly small increases in redundance to handle increased trading on the nordic electricity market and lowering the risk for accidents bringing down part of the grid. The investments in control systems are probably more significant and as far as I know there are plans for local icelanding in case of a grid break down. How it works and how tested the present systems are is probably confidential.
There is an emergency repair organization who has everything needed for rebuilding small sections of 130-400 kV lines or building a number of emergency switchyards. I do as a defence nerd find it to small a force but it has been planned to be air mobile with common military transport aeroplanes and use small helicopters for movement of parts while working in case it will be needed internationally. If terrorists blow up your grid request aid from Sweden, probably good foreign policy planning, I hope we then ask for some future favor in return. It was used about 1.5 years ago when the storm/weak hurricane Gudrun to peoples surprise brought down 130 kV lines, the largest size that use pairs of wooden poles with complete tree fall clearance. Tree fall clearance, not fully grown trees flying around clearance.
It should be such that the telephone infrastructure, all police stations, fire brigade stations, hospitals, (disabled)old peoples homes, water and sweage works etc should have their own emergency generators. But it is not complete, the investments seems to increase every time there is an accident. Its seems like the trend is to mostly increase the number of installations to recieve mobile emergency generators (Essentially a box with a big switch, a connector, fuses, grounding and control light to indicate that mains power is back. ) and when there is some major problem it is discovered that fallen trees are in the way of the gensets, or thet they are too few, hard to organize and so on and the number of fixed installations goes up in the voulnerable spots.
The old civil defence goal for the water supply were that every area supplied by a municipiality should have full redundancy in case one water source were poisoned or one water works broke down. This goal were not reached but a fair number of towns have full redundance. But I think my own home town is growing out of it and would ration garden watering. The planning part is still maintained, there are lakes and streames tagged as possible water sources, some natural sand formations from the ice age are set aside for water cleaning and so on. But I think stockpiles of pumps and tubing whent to the scrap yard with the big drawn down after the cold war. But such redundancy is cheap in Sweden since most of the country has nearly unlimited fresh water from lakes and streams. It usually only require some sand filtration or the common artificial ground water treatment by using a natural sand formation as a giant sand filter. Most or all larger water works chlorinate, mostly to keep the water from loosing drinking quality in the water lines.
This has of course not stopped the crazy trend of bottled drinking water even when average bottled water has lower quality then random tap water. Good marketing can get people to buy and carry home a liter of water for one dollar instead of drinkig water from their tap for 0.1 cent. I had a good laugh at an evening tabloid this weekend that tested different brands of bottled water without added taste exept minerals, tap water won. This bottled water trend will probably be a quick road kill for PO.
With that little HE we would be talking about 1 pumping stn, or a smallish breach in a single pipeline yes?
"Drinking water you could bring in by sea or train or trucks"
I would imagine you could repair the breech faster than you could organize the mass distribution of alternative supplies. It would take some number of days for crops to die, and most households have a 40 gallon emergency supply of potable water on hand at all times (in their water heaters) though I suspect most have never thought of it this way, so the actual death toll I would expect to be minimal.
Now on the other hand dropping hydro towers could do a lot more damage I would think, and use the HE to greater effect since the amount required to sheer 2 legs on a tower is quite modest if rigged correctly.
The east coast blackout of a few years ago which originated from a single sub-station failure at a time of max demand gives a good example of the cascade effect on a deeply coupled system close to overload at the best of times.
A distributed attack focusing on the major interconnecting lines between cities, and the interstate tie lines, all of which are well documented in open source files. Hmmm...
I hear my file starting to be added to, time to stop now ;)
Probably.
I'm sure there are more flammable targets ;-)
Beyond that, I think the system is more redundant that casual observers would note (particularly there are a number of near-in reservoirs and lakes holding short-term supply).
While I'm doing notes - one amusing thing is that while we've got those big pipes going over mountains ... many of them have traditionally been siphons. While the water goes a long ways, it is "net-net" downhill to LA. Again details on total system electrical consumption in the WATER-ENERGY RELATIONSHIP by the California Energy Commission)
Same way with transmission lines, fixes are fast and internal supplies to back up outages plentiful in basin.
Even the amount of local refineries in LA are enough to take care of all its needs.
And BTW, I've heard that refineries sometimes catch on fire. Is that true? Or is it only vicious propaganda by uninformed nonscientists?
If we let ourselves get a little more optimistic, and assume some better battery tech, then we can start to guess which segment would expand the fastest.
They say twice the power, 3x the life, 2,000 cycles minimum. Sounds like about 6x the battery, but I haven't seen the specs. Amp or kw-hours, anyone?
By my rules I can't "count" them until they are in a car, but they look promising ;-)
New Car 2015-2020 ?
I decided to try thinking a bit outside the box and try to describe what I believe a new car might be like in 2015-2020 time period making the assumption that we are past peak oil and down to about 70% of current 2006 output (84 mbpd down to about 60 million barrels per day).
I am also assuming that that declining output of oil will have caused a significant recession so the new car will have to be very low cost for people to afford it then.
The new car will have a 4 cylinder air cooled motor of 1000-1200 cc displacement and produce about 40 horsepower. The air cooled engine reduces weight and eliminates complexity over a liquid cooled motor. And it eliminates the need for the glycol (oil based) anti-freeze.
The body will be all steel. Steel is easy to recycle at minimum cost where plastic body components are difficult to recycle. The steel body can be crushed or shredded using electric motors, hauled to the steel foundry by rail and remelted in electric furnaces - All of which is current practice for steel auto bodies today. Plastic or fiberglass bodies are much more difficult to recycle back into new car bodies.
The auto interior will go back to the 40's and early 50's with metal frame seats with metal springs and animal hair padding over the springs and then cotton padding over the animal hair. Low cost coverings will be cotton or cotton/wool blends and upgraded material will be mohair (angora goat hair) or mohair/wool blends. Dashes will go back to painted metal with no foam rubber (oil) overlaid with vinyl (oil) padded dashes. Side panels and headliners will be natural fiber fabrics.
There will be no extravagances like computers, air bags, air conditioning, etc... The only primary uses of petroleum will be the tires, flexible brake lines, window, door and hood/trunk seals, distributor cap and rotor, insulation on the wiring harness and a few other very minor parts like shock absorber seals. And some of those items can probably be made from bio-plastic materials or natural rubber compounds.
Humm, Hummm, you know what I have just described ? A late 50's early 60's VW Beetle. Maybe I wasn't thinking quite so much outside the box as I thought <BG>. The VW engine weight to (useable) power ratio was about the best in any auto engine as shown by the fact that it is the only auto engine that had any real success as a power plant for light aircraft. (I am a private pilot and flew mostly homebuilts including a number of VW powered ones). I happen to have a 1962 VW Beetle in my stable of vehicles and it is the only one that I can push around easily by myself because it is so lightweight. It has to be to keep up in traffic with only 40 HP (at 3600 rpm).
Fuel consumption on the old VW is about 30 to 35 mpg with the low compression engine. With slightly higher compression and perhaps improved combustion chamber design it should easily get 35 to 40 mpg. And that should be livable with $10.00 per gallon gasoline.
I just don't see any way that the high tech vehicles of today can be built affordably during a severe recession. As there will be fewer cars traveling fewer miles with smaller engines I would guess that you can eliminate the more crazy of the environmental constraints that require all the expensive (both money and oil) computer controls.
I have had a number of VW's in the past and have driven them in Minnesota Winters and Arizona Summers without any real problems. Air conditioning and some of the other amenities (stereos, CD players, mapping computers) might be nice, but are hardly necessities. VW = Volks Wagen (pronounced folks vahgen) = Peoples Car (English translation). ie, A basic transportation vehicle for the average person. The early 60's VW cost about ¼ of a years wages for the average worker. Today's new VW Beetle cost about 1 full years wages for the average worker. That's what all the extra glitz & computer stuff is costing.
The next 10 to 15 years are going to be very interesting times. Hope I don't up and die early before I can see how many of my prognostications come to pass. I expect I will fail as miserably as those of Popular Science and Popular Mechanics <GBG>.
I've noticed most home built aircraft around here use the Subaru flat 4.
I say: Back to the Future!
(Actually, I liked the old thirty-six horsepower engines better. Who needs all that speed?)
I totally fail to comprehend your objections to simple, easy to make and easy to repair technology.