It's walkable now because there's someplace to go and get the stuff they need to survive.  But the concept that LA, or even OC, could be locally sustainable without massive fossil fuel inputs - sorry, I just don't see it.  There's no room left to grow anything!  
I'm a numbers-based guy.  If I believed in 8-10% global decline in oil production, I might bail.  On the other hand, if I accepted the more moderate 2-3%, I might sit happy.

BTW, remember those articles on the energy efficiency of NYC?

If you can truck food there, you can truck food anywhere ;-)

Actually, the saving grace of NYC is that it has an excellent harbor and river system to connect it to the Farmlands of upstate NY and beyond. We also get our water from the Catskills pumped here by the laws of gravity! NYC is in a great geographic position for food distribution and Water.

What NYC really currently lacks is a good freight rail connection to Manhattan, but barges from Staten Island, New Jersey and Brooklyn could carry a good portion of the truck load. The Harbor Tunnel would be a great improvement over the current stream of trucks from Brooklyn to NJ.

Every area has something different. NYC has many unique issues that are completely different from LA.

If you named harbors as a difference, you don't know LA.  We've also got a load of freight rail coming out of that port.
I grew up in LA/OC, during the Vietnam War. When the Club of Rome report came out in 1972, I "got it" instantly, perhaps because my family was strict and I had no access to a car (and there were no busses).

My wife and I are presently building a homestead on (scarce)floodplain land in the southwest, and I can attest that it is extremely difficult, expensive and time consuming. Even creating a garden takes years to bring online -- and few people even try any more. We are doing it primarily because we enjoy it, hard work and all. Insulating ourselves from possible "overshoot and collapse" is secondary. Our friends and family admire what we are creating, but generally say "but I couldn't do that myself." Because few people will put in hard work if they don't have to.

When asked "how should I prepare (for P.O.)?" I don't know what to say. It's like being asked "how can I lose weight?" The answer is "change your lifestyle," which does not gain you many friends.  

I applaud RR for proseletizing. Understanding must come before action. But I have a hard time seeing right action coming out of this. Just as people would rather take a med than change their lifestyle (with high blood pressure, say), they would rather continue their lifestyle by "other means," such as war. If you look at the Middle East right now, it is difficult to imagine the US going through all this trouble except to get oil by virtually any means possible.  

That sounds great, esp. if you enjoy it.  I mentioned my parents' 1/3 acre below, with the 12 fruit trees.  It's one of those neigborhoods where it's hard to give away avacados in season because everybody knows somebody who has a tree bearing.  The area is partly on well water still, could conserve, intall rain catchment, etc., etc., etc.

Basically for a lot of levels of decline short of crash, that's the kind of place to be.  If you really belive crash, avoid the rush ... go to the mountains of Peru or something.

BTW, I agree on getting up to speed on gardening.  I did it growing up and did all the heavy work in my highshool and college years.  It was very rewarding (even though I didn't like avacados when I planted the trees!).  For a kid they were too "slimy"
Sounds like your parents are still the partial beneficiaries of a true sweet spot in Southern Califorinia. At the time of Richard Henry Dana, the LA basin was not that nice a place to do more than raise a few cows and bemoan the lack of a local market. There wasn't enough water for even a small population until some water management was implemented. By the time the Owens Valley had been turned into a desert and the CA Colorado River Aquaduct had been built, Southern CA enterred an agricultural [and in many ways residential] sweet spot.

For the most part, the agricultural bonanza has been paved ... and suburbia has run amuk. It is still a great place for a lot of things, but population pressures have defined the highest use as near endless suburbia. [Oh well ... maybe in another lifetime or on mankind's next planet.]

BTW, for purposes of full disclosure, I have lived in LA County and it appears highly likely that I will do so again in the very near future [gasp / sigh / does anyone know a good pychologist in the Westwood / Santa Monica area?]

Good luck finding a sweet spot!
Thanks. I'm afraid I'm going to need it. :-)
I would like to recommend the book "Extreme Simplicity: homesteading in the city" by Christopher & Dolores Lynn Nyerges. They live in the LA area, and have figured out how to homestead on their suburban lot. Lots of great ideas.
Cool, I'll make a note of that.
Oh, I know LA has a port, I was more answering your vague statement about trucking goods into NYC. That only started with the containerization of freight. NYC could easily to take on direct delivery from ships when it becomes necessary. Many of the docks are still in place and ready to go when necessary. The difference is that our harbor is connected to the Hudson River and by extension of the Erie Canal, the entire Great Lakes Basin - some of the most productive agricultural land in the world.
I think you need to look back to the spirit of my original post.  I'm talkin' about the gloom people have when they think powerdown means a frozen transportation grid.

I was just throwing a word out there for bulk transport and used "truck."  The fact (that casual pessimists) ignore is that all the bulk transport methods are far more efficient (on a per cargo-ton basis) than personal transportation.  At the same time they are of course vital.

In various degrees of powerdown the ships, trains, and trucks will keep moving ... even as people carpool, bicycle, and walk, their way to work and shopping.

... and if you want to get into which regions have agriculture ... don't pick a fight with California.

BTW, my parents house is in LA County, is 1/3 acre, and has about a dozen fruit trees (including avacados which grow like weeds, yum).
With annual precipitation of a meager ~12" a year, and perhaps just 34 rain-days on average, LA's biggest Peak Oil issue will be water, which takes considerable energy to distribute throughout the Basin. Based on available fresh water, a sustainable population in the LA area might be a few hundred thousand at most, at least according to a geology professor of mine. I'd certainly like to see more studies about this issue. Indeed, from what I've read, fresh water is one of the key planning issues for much of CA.

-best

Some data on that at the bottom of the thread.
California gets most of its water from its Sierra snowpacks.
Look here for more info.
P.S. The link between Global Warming and California's water supply= not good news
One thing that has puzzled me for years is why terrorists have not yet taken out the pipelines that supply water to So. Calif. A dozen guys, only a few hundred pounds of high explosives, and bingo--no agriculture and no toilet flushing for some twenty million people.

BTW, there is nothing easier to blow than a pipeline or a pumping station, whether for water or oil. I have to wonder if Al Qaeeda has this type of enterprise planned for this summer or the next one. Clearly, you would want to do it when reservoirs are low to maximize panic.

Drinking water you could bring in by sea or train or trucks, but So. Cal needs huge amounts of H2O from far away to keep from going back to a desert.

Nice suggestion, Sailorman. That'll add another page to your FBI dossier.
Thank you, but I lifted the idea from a 1940s science fiction story. Alas, none of my great ideas are original.

BTW, back in the day I did some work for Uncle Sam. One reason for my heavy F.B.I. dossier is that I had "God Clearance." If you do not know what that is, then you do not need to know.

Sorry about that;-)

I can guess what it is, but don't tell me, because I don't want to die ;-)

What was the 1940's sci-fi story?

I thought a bit more about the idea. Would it really be all that devastating? Sure, pipelines are easy to blow up. But are they that hard to bring back online? Seems to me they'd get it fixed before anybody died of thirst. Or would they discover that they had melted down the last batch of proper-gauge pipe?

It was published in either "Amazing" or "Thrilling Wonder Stories," I think in 1943 in the context of World War II sabotoge. The author? Um? Jack Vance? Jack Williamson? Jack somebody, I think, and for the life of me I cannot remember the title of the story. Anyway, I'm sure Jack X. lifted the idea from somebody else . . . who adapted it from something Jules Verne or somebody wrote more than a hundred years ago who lifted it from Archimedes or some other old Greek.

Originality is exceedingly rare--except when it comes to making mistakes.

BTW, when discussing ideas for terrorists, I follow the Tom Clancy rule of purposely presenting a notion in a way that it will fail; in other words, I never ever give any details that might help anybody to actually do evil.

(BTW, on the web there are some hilariously wrong instructions on how to make explosives. Somebody probably planted them with the intent that bomber/terrorists blow themselves up while mixing nitroglycerin or whatever.)

(BTW, on the web there are some hilariously wrong instructions on how to make explosives. Somebody probably planted them with the intent that bomber/terrorists blow themselves up while mixing nitroglycerin or whatever.)

Yeah, I've noticed that. Also, the instructions for bombs in the old Anarchist's Cookbook will blow you up...exactly wrong.

I have thought about simmiliar scenarios regarding my own countries electricity grid.

My conclusion about what to to about it is that vital services need their own emergency generators, preparations for icelanding random parts of the grid is a good thing and the same is true for emergency stockpiles of spare parts and emergency repair groups. Doing something about the possible terrorists is much harder.

My conclusion about why no such terrorist attack has been done is that intelligent terrorists look for attacks that have a large symbolic value and not attacks whose sum of small inconveniences and costs add up to very large sums. They are attacking symbols, not the basic and resilant economy.

The grid risk is locally handled in a few ways, none of them wholly satisfactory for a defence nerd.
The main grid gets a fairly small increases in redundance to handle increased trading on the nordic electricity market and lowering the risk for accidents bringing down part of the grid. The investments in control systems are probably more significant and as far as I know there are plans for local icelanding in case of a grid break down. How it works and how tested the present systems are is probably confidential.

There is an emergency repair organization who has everything needed for rebuilding small sections of 130-400 kV lines or building a number of emergency switchyards. I do as a defence nerd find it to small a force but it has been planned to be air mobile with common military transport aeroplanes and use small helicopters for movement of parts while working in case it will be needed internationally. If terrorists blow up your grid request aid from Sweden, probably good foreign policy planning, I hope we then ask for some future favor in return. It was used about 1.5 years ago when the storm/weak hurricane Gudrun to peoples surprise brought down 130 kV lines, the largest size that use pairs of wooden poles with complete tree fall clearance. Tree fall clearance, not fully grown trees flying around clearance.

It should be such that the telephone infrastructure, all police stations, fire brigade stations, hospitals, (disabled)old peoples homes, water and sweage works etc should have their own emergency generators. But it is not complete, the investments seems to increase every time there is an accident. Its seems like the trend is to mostly increase the number of installations to recieve mobile emergency generators (Essentially a box with a big switch, a connector, fuses, grounding and control light to indicate that mains power is back. ) and when there is some major problem it is discovered that fallen trees are in the way of the gensets, or thet they are too few, hard to organize and so on and the number of fixed installations goes up in the voulnerable spots.

The old civil defence goal for the water supply were that every area supplied by a municipiality should have full redundancy in case one water source were poisoned or one water works broke down. This goal were not reached but a fair number of towns have full redundance. But I think my own home town is growing out of it and would ration garden watering. The planning part is still maintained, there are lakes and streames tagged as possible water sources, some natural sand formations from the ice age are set aside for water cleaning and so on. But I think stockpiles of pumps and tubing whent to the scrap yard with the big drawn down after the cold war. But such redundancy is cheap in Sweden since most of the country has nearly unlimited fresh water from lakes and streams. It usually only require some sand filtration or the common artificial ground water treatment by using a natural sand formation as a giant sand filter. Most or all larger water works chlorinate, mostly to keep the water from loosing drinking quality in the water lines.

This has of course not stopped the crazy trend of bottled drinking water even when average bottled water has lower quality then random tap water. Good marketing can get people to buy and carry home a liter of water for one dollar instead of drinkig water from their tap for 0.1 cent. I had a good laugh at an evening tabloid this weekend that tested different brands of bottled water without added taste exept minerals, tap water won. This bottled water trend will probably be a quick road kill for PO.

"One thing that has puzzled me for years is why terrorists have not yet taken out the pipelines that supply water to So. Calif. A dozen guys, only a few hundred pounds of high explosives, and bingo--no agriculture and no toilet flushing for some twenty million people."

With that little HE we would be talking about 1 pumping stn, or a smallish breach in a single pipeline yes?

"Drinking water you could bring in by sea or train or trucks"

I would imagine you could repair the breech faster than you could organize the mass distribution of alternative supplies. It would take some number of days for crops to die, and most households have a 40 gallon emergency supply of potable water on hand at all times (in their water heaters) though I suspect most have never thought of it this way, so the actual death toll I would expect to be minimal.

Now on the other hand dropping hydro towers could do a lot more damage I would think, and use the HE to greater effect since the amount required to sheer 2 legs on a tower is quite modest if rigged correctly.

The east coast blackout of a few years ago which originated from a single sub-station failure at a time of max demand gives a good example of the cascade effect on a deeply coupled system close to overload at the best of times.

A distributed attack focusing on the major interconnecting lines between cities, and the interstate tie lines, all of which are well documented in open source files. Hmmm...
I hear my file starting to be added to, time to stop now ;)

Some time this afternoon you will be visited by two men in blue suits and white shirts. They will be asking you questions. Just tell the truth, these are nice guys, just doing their job; they are not out to get you.

Probably.

One thing that has puzzled me for years is why terrorists have not yet taken out the pipelines that supply water to So. Calif.

I'm sure there are more flammable targets ;-)

Beyond that, I think the system is more redundant that casual observers would note (particularly there are a number of near-in reservoirs and lakes holding short-term supply).

While I'm doing notes - one amusing thing is that while we've got those big pipes going over mountains ... many of them have traditionally been siphons.  While the water goes a long ways, it is "net-net" downhill to LA.  Again details on total system electrical consumption in the WATER-ENERGY RELATIONSHIP by the California Energy Commission)

As an engineer who asked the question about the security of water in LA I learned that it is pretty easy to fix that line too....it is gravity fed and sipon is designed to be restarted fairly quickly.  Considerably less than the storage within the Basin.

Same way with transmission lines, fixes are fast and internal supplies to back up outages plentiful in basin.

Even the amount of local refineries in LA are enough to take care of all its needs.

um . . . when the Port of Long Beach is smoking ruins, where does the crude for those refineries come from?

And BTW, I've heard that refineries sometimes catch on fire. Is that true? Or is it only vicious propaganda by uninformed nonscientists?