174 comments on DrumBeat: July 18, 2006
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174 comments on DrumBeat: July 18, 2006
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The thing that was striking, or at least what I remember about it (it was about 4 AM EDT after all), was that he was making the point that ~85 million BPD (and maybe 86 million by the 4th quarter) is the maxiumum amout we will likely ever be able to achieve no matter what the demand is. That it is "sooner" than other experts have predicted didn't seem to be a surprise to him.
( Sidebar: By definition the peak, the summit. Enjoy the view because it's downhill in every direction from here.)
And demand/supply imbalances will raise the price until the demand pressure subsides. But it won't change the maximum.
(Those of us whom have been following this for more than a few years don't find any of this surprising. My own sense of the peak, up to 2004, was that the peak would occur in early to mid 2007. In the meantime, it looked to me that the Bush Administration was hoping that it would occur in the 2009-2010 timeframe, making it SEP. Somewhere in late 2003/early 2004, based upon the data I was watching from the GOM and elsewhere, I became convinced that somewhere in the second quarter of 2006, we would "summit." Have we? I don't know but it sure is looking like it.)
Pickens also admitted he was wrong in the past about the oil sands in Alberta and is now heavily invested in them (he made the point that he's invested with his own money, and invested a few other things).
He has no plans to retire.