The Oil Drum | EIA reports on April

99 comments on EIA reports on April

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Sam Foucher on July 3, 2006 - 10:27am

The first graph is giving me shivers! I'm having a hard time believing that the current price increase is cyclical:

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Sam Foucher on July 3, 2006 - 11:29am

The above graph was based on BP production data which is more optimistic for 2004 and 2005. Using only the EIA estimate (suggestion of westexas) we get the following:

(click on the image to make it bigger)

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Sam Foucher on July 3, 2006 - 11:55am

Using 1982 as a base year:

The circled points are projections for 2006

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WebHubbleTelescope on July 3, 2006 - 9:02pm

Are you saying that the number of oil rigs governs the price of gas? Or that the number of oil rigs tracks the scarcity of oil, which then pushes the price?

Otherwise, at least it appears to be a good first-order predictor of price.

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Sam Foucher on July 3, 2006 - 9:22pm

Are you saying that the number of oil rigs governs the price of gas? Or that the number of oil rigs tracks the scarcity of oil, which then pushes the price?

in case of Saudi Arabia, prices and rig counts are correlated but I believe it's a coincidence. Your second interpretation is probably the most probable.

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WebHubbleTelescope on July 3, 2006 - 11:52pm

Khebab,
I think you found a winner of a graph there. The relationship is jaw-dropping IMO.

If the number of stripper wells in the USA could be plotted over time we might see the same thing, especially recently.

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99 comments on EIA reports on April

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