Your analysis, I fear, is sadly absolutely correct.

The fact that major oil producing nations and their dependents are stuck in a web of fakery and illusion is only indication of the house of cards falling all the harder.

This also, as mention a bazillion times here on TOD, has the added benefit of driving up prices further. And if there is no swing producer, then all the better--none of these countries can be punished through artificial price adjustments, simply because Washington no longer has the stroke to do so.

Just look at the desperation of Dick Cheney flying over to Kazakhstan in order to secure energy. We are indeed at the stage of using every possible option at our disposal to keep our imports plentiful and "cheap" (hah!).

Whether there is peak oil imposed by nature and economics or there is peak oil imposed by a cartel would lead to the same result, an imbalance between supply and demand leading to ever higher prices.  Unless, of course, one believes that these producers can be jawboned or forced to produce more or if people get the impression that shortates are just temporary because they are dictated by politics.

In any event, however, our "leaders" (do we actually have any) could announce that either way, we must decrease our consumption for the indefinite future, because we will have less oil and because climate change mandates a decrease in the consumption of all forms of energy.

Also, in any event, this news just reiterates the fact that the world's producers have us by the gonads and we need more than some silly ass Bush vision of hydrogen and ethanol  savings said nads in twenty years.

We could start by cutting our defense budget in half -- the half that clearly isn't making a dime's worth of difference in our ability to influence world events.