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135 comments on DrumBeat: July 24, 2006

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westexas on July 24, 2006 - 9:33am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Produce or perish

The EB (Energy Bulletin) has a very good/scary series of articles on food and on food versus fuel.  

In regard to my ELP (Economize; Localize & Produce) recommendations, I would start making preparations now.  If I'm wrong, you will have less debt, more money in the bank and a lower stress way of life.  

Texas billionaires Richard Rainwater and Boone Pickens--hardly a couple of guys typing out dark conspiracy theories in their basements--have tried to warn us about that the dangers posed by Peak Oil.  In fact, Mr. Rainwater questions the survivability of the human race.

According to the 12/05 Fortune article (search EB for Rainwater Prophecy), Mr. Rainwater is currently trying to expand his ability to grow his own food.

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westexas on July 24, 2006 - 10:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
George Ure can always be counted on to post some interesting comments.  What if the Neocons believe in the Richard Duncan (Olduvai Gorge) dieoff theory?  What if seizing control of the oil fields is the only thing that matters to them?

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Excerpt:

"And the Russians are having a field day with U.S. policy putting us into the box where we don't have much room to move.  I mean, there's a reason by Condi is not calling for a cease fire: in the crass world of oiltics, the number of dead doesn't matter because it will be such a small number in comparison to an oil drought induced die-off."

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goritsas on July 24, 2006 - 11:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You gotta hand it to "Richard Duncan (Olduvai Gorge)," his claim about increasing failures in the grid seems to be at least possible. Maybe he didn't anticipate the impacts of climate change (forced by us or not), but he sure did mention the grid becoming less and less reliable.

As for the oil fields, there are a few others who have mentioned this before, and I tend to agree with 'em. I see no reason why the oil fields grab needs to be viewed as a failure thus far.  As long as the area is occupied, that seems to be a win to me. With the huge complex in Baghdad a permanent presence seems assured. Much of this stuff is at least alluded to in PNAC. As well as the multiple theatre military assertions. Will they keep it up? Will that require conscription? Will there be another 9/11 as Pearl Harbour incident? Guess we'll find out in due course.

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goritsas on July 24, 2006 - 12:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
To cary on with the oil point, from http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14001903/:

Richard Lugar, chairman of the US Senate foreign relations committee, has urged the Bush administration to adopt specific "contingency plans" for a potential disruption to oil supplies from Venezuela.

In a letter sent to Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state, last Friday, a copy of which has been obtained by the Financial Times, Mr Lugar warned the US that it needed to "abandon" reliance on a "passive approach" to energy diplomacy.

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If somebody was saying those oil fields matter at any cost, this might be them. Maybe that is all that does matter to the Neocons.

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kenny on July 24, 2006 - 10:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The "Grain Drain" article and past reports we've seen give a figure of 57 days worth of stored grain for the global food supply.

From that article: "Unless this year's harvest is unexpectedly different from six out of the last seven, the world's ever-decreasing number of farmers will not produce enough staple grains to feed its ever-increasing number of people."

The "scary part" you mention from the Energy Bulletin's list of articles is that this year IS going to be "unexpectedly different" from the last six or seven in that grain harvests could be much, much worse than last year as the result of the heat waves in the U.S. and Europe.

Has anyone seen any forecast or discussion of where that storage cushion may be at the end of the year?

Also, how quickly can ethanol production be ramped up? Can ethanol expansion really have such an immediate impact on supply and price, or is that something more likely to occur 2-5 years down the road?

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Dot on July 24, 2006 - 11:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Has anyone seen any forecast or discussion of where that storage cushion may be at the end of the year?

Crop Prospects and Food Situation

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kenny on July 24, 2006 - 12:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks. I wonder about the extent to which the prediction takes into account this season's heat waves in the U.S. and Europe. But they've forcast a nearly 10% reduction in end-of-season stocks.
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jjhman on July 25, 2006 - 11:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I've been watching grain prices for about a year, expecting to see some reaction in the markets for grains related to either fear of a bad harvest (given falling stocks) or the rising price of oil.  It just ain't happening.  Soybeans, corn, rice and wheat are all running close to their ten year average prices, with rice and wheat showing an increase during this year.  The others quite stable.  It raises the question whether rising oil prices really affect farming so much or are the markets not acting rationally?  Or what?
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tate423 on July 26, 2006 - 12:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Where are you getting your info from?  I just read an article yesterday/mon maybe that was talking about peak commodities.  Not every commodity, but they were pointing out grain stocks being lower the last 4-5 yrs and it isn't getting better as we add more souls.  The article was from itulip.com and generally, very reputable.
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ryvr on July 24, 2006 - 7:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I wish everyone could be fed, perhaps with the exception of those who, knowing we are running low on food to eat, want to burn it in automobiles.
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135 comments on DrumBeat: July 24, 2006

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