286 comments on DrumBeat: July 25, 2006
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The consensus at the Oil Drum is that we will rationally move to a sustainable society with help of our great scientific (and social?) knowledge. However, my opinion is that a change to a sustainable society can only be accomplished by completely abolishing our current money system. Either by a collapse of the system that was bound to happen anyway or because people choose (or are forced) to switch to local currencies, where money is a utility and is not used as a store of value. (there would actually be a discount on keeping money in your possession, so it makes more sense to invest it in something that would provide a future return).
Our current money system discounts future supplies and leads to ever increasing competition where the natural escalation is war.
For an excellent introduction see:
http://www.transaction.net/press/interviews/lietaer0497.html
http://www.startupjunkies.org/TheEarthPlus5Percent.pdf
A change in the money system is not going to happen voluntarily. Anybody want to float ideas on how to make it happen?
I posted a link in a Drumbeat past to a St Louis Fed Report by Lawrence Kutlikoff you may be interested in.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/06/07/Kotlikoff.pdf
I think the price of oil will be impacted by the supply/ demand components that are discussed at TOD and that declines in the value of the US$ will exacerbate those negative effects.
One mans opinion, I don't have any debate killing information or resources to prove my point.
I also don't feel that I can impact fiscal or monetary policy on a macro scale. However, I believe I can do things on a personal level to reduce the potential negative impacts of peak oil and current fiscal policy on my family though.
My micro focus will not help you make changes at the national policy level but I wish you the best of luck.
Industrial society is neolithic on steroids, but not fundamentally different.
If humanity is to survive, we need a completely new paradigm. There is a lot of speculation about that, but truly, it is hard to fathom what such a thing would really look like, given the apparent hard-wired human needs for novelty and acquisitiveness.
As in North America, the arrival of humans in Australia was suspiciously coincidental to extintion of most large land mammals. So possibly they were not sustainable at first, but later arrived at an ecological equilibrium.
Another possible sustainable candidate is Japan, 1603-1867 (Edo Period).
The population remained almost steady at around 30 million for over 250 years.
Wet rice agriculture, soy beans and fishing were the staple means of survival. There was no immigration/emmigration, very little overseas trade, no wars and no epidemics. One could argue that with this population density, deforestation was bound to occur long term, a la Europe. But most of Japan is steep mountains, with much of the population residing in narrow flatish strips. Thus the forests survived in the mountains. Abundant rainfall and a temperate climate also meant the biomass could keep up to a greater extent.
Sustainability surely depends on whether the population can be supported long-term without depleting resources, and on how the society chooses to exploit or protect the resources available to it.
France has lots of railways using all electric trains, 80% nuclear, 19% Hydro.
I really don' see a big problem with peak oil. Global warming is the bigger threat and we know who is mostly to blame.
cheers
I have never been to Europe, so I have a question. I was reading this A/C article that states that American vehicles burn more energy for A/C alone than all of Indonesia [pop 240 million] uses in its energy entirety. This 7 billion gallons of gas for A/C is probably due to the fact that it is nearly impossible to buy a vehicle without factory installed A/C.
Do most European cars come without factory A/C? Is it a European mandate by the Govts? Or is it because European fuel costs are already so high that most consumers prefer a vehicle without A/C to self-limit total car usage?
It would seem obvious as gas prices rise to eliminate A/C in cars. This reduces the car's intial cost and weight, and simplifies future maintenance, besides increasing the gas mileage. But most importantly, if no A/C was installed-- people would not be so inclined to drive needlessly wasting fuel. It would also encourage more people to use A/C mass-transit versus sweating in stalled traffic jams.
The Asphalt Wonderland, here in AZ, is the king of A/C and dark tinted windows--if A/C vehicles were abolished, I bet population would drop 15% in the first year alone. If most Phoenicians had their windows down they would also be much more likely to see and hear motorcycles and scooters versus having the windows shut tight to ease their ability to ceaselessly yap on their cellphones.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
It is no mandate, I have been to Europe 3 times and although I haven't been in many cars the ones I have been in at keast had A/C. Generally, it's not needed, although there are probably a lot more cars there that are simply not equipped with it. I saw a lot of people driving around Paris with their windows open. The big difference is simply their cars are all smaller. I saw many American and Japanese cars that you cannot buy here in the states. I assume that they think there is no market for them.
cheers
In France it becomes now virtually impossible to buy a car without A/C. Even the cheapest new car has A/C at least as an option. And most models are delivered with standard A/C.
As for diesel cars, the cars are more expensive but it is the fuel that has less taxes than gasoline.
todays prices :
gasoline : 6.15 $/gal
diesel : 5.29 $/gal
with a dollar at 1.26 euros
I don't have a car, but from looking around I can not conclude A/C is standard here in Holland. Ofcourse new cars more and more have it, but it's most times offered as an option. At least half of the year our average temperature does not require A/C too.
General public fuel price discussions blame taxes and Shell. "They did it, and we cannot but pay".
The typical beach days we have so much now in july lead to huge traffic jams. On some of these 'sundays' people spend more time in their car then on the beach (voluntary traffic!) I can imagine the extra cost for A/C is easily paid for and we'll have a second ice cream too. Our road services report most of the car problems they have to fix relate to (engine)cooling. But see what fun we have!
All the hospitals specialized in burning wounds make overhours. We're about to close our first electricity plant because the cooling water gets to hot.
Last night on the news it was said electro-technical installers make record business installing home A/Cs in our current month with record temps. As does this entrepreneur importing thermo-cooling-blankets from the US to keep pets cool :)
We're just to confused by this unprecendented heat to worry about it's root causes. In general I think the dire consequences of increased A/C use are easily forgotten in the comfort of cool air...
Keep sweating!
"Here people work only 35 hours a week with a minimum of 6 weeks paid holiday per year, plus 14 public holidays which become 4 day week-ends whenever they land on Tuesday or Thursday."
"I really don' see a big problem with peak oil. "
You probably do not see the problem because you are Naive. And your Ignorance makes you complacent. Like a two year-old child, you seem to believe your government will just keep supplying you with Nipplez and, if not, why all you have to do is "Protest!"
By the way, how goes it in your suburbs this year?
I dont think the French are naive at all. I think they are quite canny. They put French interests first, they have rejected the anglo-american business model of 'work till you drop then get fired'. They protect farmers (this will be useful in localised agriculture). They are highly literate and still produce good engineers and scientists and protect core industries.
They have 80% nuke power, high potential for hydro / tidal and an independent nuclear deterrent.
Right now, if Britain wants to 'nuke up' we will need to import nuke technology, engineers and scientists. Preferably from France since I no longer trust America to act in our interests. Right now, you are busy arresting UK Business men for 'crimes' that are not even crimes in the UK. Your Congress has not even ratified the extradition treaty ('fraid of the Irish caucus when we want our Irish terrorists back for a 'quiet chat'). But poodle Blair wont lift a finger. Chirac would just tell you to sod off over any Frenchmen being extradited.
BTW: We have to get a replacement for our Trident Nukes...
...Not sure the good ole US of A can be trusted not to put in switch - off codes, should they ever need to fly...
Perhaps we should buy French next time. I understand they are slimmer, more stylish and pack an elegant level of va-va-voom.
The French have good food, good wine, a good climate, and they dont give a dingos kidneys about the US/Anglo model, WTO or anything that gets in the way of the way they want to live.
OMG...I am defending the French...
Perhaps what pi**es you off is that these 'cheese eating surrender monkeys' gave your boss-man the finger over Iraq.
Looks like they were right eh?
We will see, in the fullness of time, if their model is better post peak oil.
The only fly in the ointment is water resources on the Mediterranean littoral and in Deep France. That's probably because lots of English have decided to go and live there.
I wonder why...
Water shortages are a big problem everywhere, and could possibly be behind the Israeli push to control the geography in the Litani river drainage basin in Lebanon. If there is ever any justification to going to war, battling for water to survive would be a primary incentive.
Importing a ton of grain is equal to importing a 1,000 tons of water. If world grains shortages are developing, it would be in a country's strategic interest to grab more water. Consider these links:
http://www.arij.org/pub/corissues/
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/1654
----------------
Jordan is importing some 91 percent of its grain, Israel 87 percent, Libya 85 percent, Saudi Arabia 50 percent, and Egypt 40 percent.
"As water shortages continue to mount, it is dangerous to presume, as many officials do, that there will be enough exportable grain to meet the import needs of all water-short countries at a price they can afford," said Postel
---------------
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
This is totally untrue. Public transit (just like nuclear stations) has very high fixed costs because of the massive investments needed to be pyed for in advances and maintained after. COmpared to those the marginal costs per passenger are negligable. If a bus full or half-full the costs for the bus trip are the same - driver salary, diesel etc. As a result mass transit makes sense only when it is really "mass" - that is where people don't prefer cars - in densely populated cities, high gas prices etc. Actually almost the whole world outside US is like that.
while each rider does increass revenue it also increases weight of the bus, fuel used to move the bus, strain on the bus's axels. while statisticly more fuel efficent when a bus is fully loaded(more people to devide the finite tank volume with)
so basicly the people who run the busses have two choices.
- increass fares to cover the new costs which result in less people riding and thus we are back square one.
- buy more busses which again results in higher costs because it allows more people to ride. this brings us to point one.
public transport will fail, it's only a matter of time. if we let the market handle it like so many people are fond of it will fall flat on it's face faster then if the government subsidizes it's entire cost.FWIW most european capitals have mass transits which have been operational for more than a century and none of them has collapsed by now. With gas prices going to the sky it will soon become obvious that this long-term investment has been worthed.
BTW French nukes target the USA. A deal was reached some 10 years ago that the communist party, the last Stalinist party in Europe, would only join the Government if the Soviet Union was not the only target.
The suburbs are quiet right now. It's holiday time. Come autumn we expect the usual rituals of car burnings and attcks on the police. Just a normal part of the culture that causes little local excitement.
Interesting thought. You should come to Japan, explain your idea to the people taking the commute in Shibuya. You can make a lot of money.
I would guess that if a lot of people use public transport, it would get cheaper. But I guess thats just an old hippie dream?
How does Saudi do this with four times the population an
the great desert within which they live? I know
that they are much bigger but have no water? Desalination?
My guess is that the data is old. From this IECA article: it says that Saudia Arabia imports over 70% of its grains. The CIA Factbook for SA says:
-----------------------------------
Environment - current issues:
desertification; depletion of underground water resources; the lack of perennial rivers or permanent water bodies has prompted the development of extensive seawater desalination facilities; coastal pollution from oil spills.
-------------------------------------
Hopes this helps clear up the issue for you.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I could not care less that the French Mooned Bush over Iraq (I doubt many people noticed or cared what the French position was except their Islamic Population), or where they buy their subs, or who they will look to for protection in the next war, etc, etc...
The Socialist French have been conditioned to rely on Government to provide for everything including jobs with multiple weeks of paid holidays etc ... They have become a Nation of Nipple Seekers (a growing problem here in the United States as well - just read the whimpers of the bewildered 'victims' of the power outages in St. Louis and elsewhere.)
They and the majority of other First Worlder's like them will be very surprised as the symptoms of Peak Oil overwhelm their pansy political and economic systems.
Of course at that TimezUP, the calm, complacent tone of the French poster child above will be long gone and replaced by the Angry, Protesting, Irrational and Very Skeered Nipple Seeker looking for a scapegoat to be punished... see the Recent History of the French Domestic Legion (a.k.a. Nipple-Seekers Brigade) in Action Protesting any change to their beloved Welfare State:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4865034.stm
Vive La France
"The Socialist French have been conditioned to rely on Government to provide for everything ..." - now including, according to you, free wine with meals for the homeless etc, etc
My whole point is people must stop depending on their government for everything. If you depend on your government you will regret it because the governments will Not Solve this problem (they are stupid humans too).
The LESS dependence on government the better = become as energy (and food) self-sufficient as possible or SUFFER with the Mass Herd of Saps who sat around waiting for the Godz of Politics and Technology to show up.
Here, at this point in History we can AFFORD to be humane and generous. This is PEAK Energy and Matter - this is the Time of Plenty.
But all those nice Luxuries like "Human Dignity" will be quickly tossed aside when the cities can't Afford To Pay for indigents let alone the actual working peoples.
This is not matter of Choice - we would all love to have a world of plenty forever. But that will not be the case.
By the way, how goes the Tent Cities of Homeless springing up all over Paris - tolerance of the homeless depends on how visible they are, or how inconvenient they become ... love those desperate poor moozlimz in the suburbs until they "protest" and start burning those suburbs...
Dream your dream as long as you want but when you wake up to the nightmare that is coming you will understand that all your morals and ethics were easy to adhere to During The Time of Plenty... too bad the Time of Plenty is rapidly drawing to a close.
Water is not a problem since rainfall is about 30 inches per year almost all in Spring and Autumn. The reservoirs are filled in spring when snow melts in the Alps where population density is nearly zero. Some small villages have restrictions on water use for swimming pools but this is generally due to municipal corruption rather than nature.
Someone accused me of being naive. I don't think so and I'm here enjoying a great civilisation that looks sustainable.
The whole of Europe migth turn out to be a good place to be: It has the least erosion problems of all continents. It's climate is (partly) controlled by the Gulf Stream, which might (again, partly) mitigate the worst effects of global warming. It's ethnical wars are mostly already fought.
Our economy is already faltering, poverty increases (which I directly witness every day). People eating one meal or less per day become widespread. Access to social help becomes really difficult for a lot of people.
We will suffer as much as the rest of the world. Haven't you noticed how much stealing of raw materials and gasoline is up ?
The French are building at least as much Urban Rail as the US. But French Unions at SCNF seem to be keeping freight on trucks instead of rail.
My old worksheet
City, Date Opened, Metro Population, City Populstion
Nantes (1985) 544,932 277,728
Grenoble (1987) 419,334 156,203
Upgraded established tramways (with original dates)
Lille (1874) 1,000,900 191,164
Marseille (1876) 1,349,772 807,071
St. Etienne (1881) 291,960 183,552
The new tramways in France are :(from 1990):
Near Paris 9,644,507 2,147,857 :
T1 (St Denis Bobigny) open : June 30, 1992
T2 (Issy -La Défebse) open : july 1997.
Strasbourg : first line open : november 26, 1994; 427,245 267,051
Rouen : first line open : december 17, 1994; 389,862 108,758
Montpellier : first line open : July 1st, 2000 287,981 229,055
Orléans : first line open : november 18, 2000 263,292 116,559
Lyon : first line open : december 8, 2000 1,262,223 453,187
Bordeaux : first line open : december 2003, 21 696,364 218,948
Future opening :
Mulhouse : december 2005 234,445 112,002
Valenciennes : june 2006 357,395 40,275
Le Mans : 2006 NA 150,605
Nice : 2006 888,784 345,892
Marseille : 2007 1,230,936 807,071
Toulon : 2009 519,640 166,442
Planned :
Dijon 236,953 153,813
Tours NA 137,046
Economic policy is now governed by the wunch of bankers who govern the European Central Bank. Like most other EU governments the national government can only advocate not act. This too was an EEC objective - to undo democratic ideals descended from the French revolution.
I don't know what your idea of a "sustainable society" is but I am afraid that "completely abolishing our current money system" is absolutely UNREACHABLE.
Because money is not your (or "our") convention, this is also the "other guy" idea about what value is.
By the "other guy" I mean any third party who is not bound by your/our rules, he can choose to hoard any "things" that are of value to YOU and you will be back to consensus rules about the terms of exchange.
Short of a worldwide totalitarian rule (who wants that? some...) neither you nor him are free to choose arbitrary rules no matter how "beneficial" they could be in the long run .
Money has already been invented and it cannot be "unlearned".
Do you get what I am saying?
Our coins are made of base metals already. :-)
Copper pennies are little thinner as well.
I plan to stockpile nickels later. 75% copper, 25% nickel. Good intrinsic value.
Money in our current system has multiple purposes:
- It is used as a medium of exchange (instead of bartering). In that sense it is a utility
- It is used a store of value. In that sense it is a resource.
So, the question is do you want to use money or keep money? Keeping money is attractive, since you get interest, so the amount will increase. In resource terms this is ridiculous, since money itself is not productive. (Provide a reward for being lazy!). So it makes more sense to pump out as much oil as possible now, take the money and sit on it than investing in future resources.This problem can be solved by not using money as a store of value. Get rid of interest, actually charge something for keeping your money current. Then ask the question again: do you want to use the money or keep it? It makes more sense now to invest it in something that will provide a future return, otherwise your money is rotting away.
This is what I mean wit a new money system. Design it such that investing in the future is rewarded. Our current system is the opposite of that. Is promotes short term profits and is designed such that only the rich (or banks) profit from it. They profit either through interest (if interest levels are high) and through rising asset prices (if interest rates are low and borrowing is cheap). You, the community and the future always lose in this system. So, if we want a sustainable society it has to go...
I think your definition of the other guy is probably outside the definition here, since a precondition for a money system is a government providing protection, irrespective of positive or negative interest rates.
I do not think a totalitarion rule is needed to create the change. Exactly the opposite I think. If we continue the current system we will end up with totalitarian rule and a single 'credit' system. We can start by using a local money system in our own communities.
The authors I link can explain it much better than I do and have multiple examples of sustainable money systems and local currencies.
Steven
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3254488777215293198
He's trying to raise enough consciousness leading to a call for national strikes and do away with fractional reserve banking.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3254488777215293198
(The first 20 minutes are skippable)
I'd love to see what the real consensus is at ToD.
Does TOD have a "poll" feature? Well here's a crack at a poll anyway:
In response to Peak Oil, population overshoot, climate change, and environmental degradation, do you believe that modern civilization will, in the next century,
- a) irreversibly collapse and die-off to below pre-industrial population levels
- b) transition to a sustainable and technologically advanced civilization of 6-8 billion humans
- c) contract to a sustainable, less technological civiliation of under 2 billion humans
The poll is open for voting and editing. Choosing from the myriad of possible scenarios was very difficult, and well, multiple choice polls are inherently limiting. So, if you don't like my scenarios, add your own!d) World population contracts to 2 Billion range, but level of technology is high.
FWIW, I think "dieback" is a better term than dieoff. We will arrive at a sustainable level of population and technology, because systems tend towards equilibrium in the long fun. The population will shrink for a variety of causes, but we are a tough species and it will take a lot to wipe us out. How much technology will we save, and how small will our species get? I have no clue. If I had to bet real money I'd say we will shrink to 1.5 billion, retain a level of technology equivalent to the European middle ages, and will arrive at our new equilibrium in about 100 years. Come see me in 2100 to collect.
I would expect instead much greater temporal and spatial variability than 'dieoff' suggests. 'Dieback', to my mind at least, implies a trend toward lower population, but one with more scope for complex variation - perhaps like a cannon ball rolling down a bumpy incline with a variable slope. I do think one or more diebacks is/are inevitable, partly for reasons Jay Hanson and others have expressed.
Shortages of critical resources - or even merely the perception of shortages - result in conflicts in a world where different 'tribes' (for want of a better word) do not trust each other enough to engage in a mutual powerdown. As Roger Connor has pointed out, the risk of a huge over-reaction to peak oil and financial turbulence is substantial. The consequences which would flow from destabilizing human over-reactions (military adventures etc) would be far worse than what one would expect from production declines where the global socio-economic context remained unaffected. It is primarily the fallout from maladaptive (for the collective anyway) human respones to shortages which I would expect to be responsible for one or more diebacks.
My option would be c).
My consensus comment was a little sarcastical. I think the fundamental changes will not come through great new solar technology or biofuels or awareness through websites and forum discussions. It has to be more fundamental than that.
We have to start using a (money) system that inherently promotes investing in the future. Our current system has everybody fighting for the scarce virtual money resources through plundering scarce real resources for a short term profit. The system is fundamentally setup to do this and everybody thinks this is the correct way since we grew up with it. Please step back and think outside the box. Money should not represent a store of value, it is a utility, a store of value is in natural resources and the ability to perform valuable work. Using money as a store of value should be discouraged. This would mean negative interest rates in our current system, which shows the absurdity of the idea: you would be rewarded for taking a loan from the bank! But it shows the idea: you only use what you currently need and invest money in something that can provide a future value when it is needed. Only this way we build a system that stops our current practice of maximizing consumption at the expense of the future.
probably not a likely senario, but hezbolla has some pretty good weapons(hmm were are these from?)
http://www.worldpress.org/Americas/2421.cfm
Your quote: "I generally consider Iran to be a hot headed country."
This got me thinking that the Iraqi climate is very similar to Arizona, maybe even hotter over a larger area. I wonder how much of the violence that is blamed on Shiite-Sunni-Kurd religious differences is actually addicted detritovore violence over fossil fuels and electricity.
Imagine sleeping on your roof nightly for months on end because it is too damn hot inside your house, and electricity for your refrigerator is so intermittent that the food constantly spoils. It might be very tempting for a small group of thugs to use their AK-47s to shoot someone for their pickup, then shoot some homeowners to steal their small generators, window air-conditioning units, and the 5-gal. jerry cans of gasoline to run it all.
How badly will postPeak Americans act when our energy situation gets this bad? For example: what would you do to keep your family from freezing to death? Criminals already carjack vehicles in broad daylight with full TV coverage from helicopters--I expect them to become much more brazen and brutal postPeak.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Be assured, they know what they're doing in Teheran.
In Jerusalem too, however. They have purposely provoked Hezbollah, who either had to react and be drawn into hard confrontation, or decline and lose face. Expect Israëli troops in Lebanon. There were already UN troops there before the hostilities started. It didn't stop Israël or Hezbollah from using violence. They also killed UN personnel and attacked refugees, after those obeyed an Israeli command to leave their village.
The game goes on.