Perhaps I would tell her that we will know our families better.  That her father should be listened to and her mother, she should obey.  And to trust her friends and help them as much as possible.  That she should find a passion to believe in.  That she should trust her heart but use her head.  Good instinct tells us which is which and I would counsel her to develop her instincts by learning what is true and what is a lie.  And that a lie will trap her.

I would also tell her to learn the value of silence.  That if you silently listen you can hear the truth and see right action.  Of course I would repeat this daily until she understood.  Her being seventeen I might have to repeat myself often.

I would suggest she attend the best college she could find.  Preferably Berkely or MIT.  Fer u wharf...  Or an apprenticeship on a working farm learning organic vegetable production.

I would suggest above all to find the beauty in simplicity of lifestyle and honor with friends and family.

But I know that first I would have to reflect this lifesyle or she would not ever believe I knew what I was talking about.  

After all.....

We learn from example.

I guess that is up to us.

we're screwed.... our example has created implosion as a distinct possibility.  its up to us to find the best way out of this mess using our intellect, instinct and imagination.  a lot of what we are going to lose we do not need in the first place for a happy life.

simplify, organize and exercize.  the rest will be easy.

bill

Fossil fuel inputs are such an important part of American agricultural production that is is hard to imagine that the price of food will not increase dramatically.  

Consider the fact that the high yields of modern day agriculture are dependent on fertilizer, herbicides, and pesticides derived from fossil fuel inputs.  Then there is the mechanized farm equipment and the trucks needed to transport the food to market.  Modern irrigation methods are highly dependent on energy inputs.  Add to that the effects of a depletion of fresh water supplies from a growing U.S. population and global warming.

From what I've read, agricultural labor accounts for only 5% to 10% of the cost of produce.  IMO, it is a great misconception by white collar workers that illegal aliens are a force for keeping produce affordable.  If the labor component for produce is 10% of the cost, a $2 head of lettuce includes 20 cents for labor.  Doubling the salary of such a worker, from say $6 an hour to $12 an hours would only increase to cost for the lettuce head to roughly $2.40.  

I honestly don't see that the abundance of our food supply can be anything like its current state.  I readily admit as a medical scientist steeped in the lore of the biological limits of growth that I have a Malthusian bent.  Nonetheless, this question of agricultural limitations should be subject to same level of detailed mathematical analyses that are regular fare on this blog for oil production.

If the decline rate is 4%, that halves production in 17.5 years or so.

On top of the usual decline rate, I think it reasonable to expect further/additional disruptions due to war/terrorism and weather. (More Katrina-type events)

So that bumps it up to 6% let's say, halving the supply in 11.5 years.

If the decline rate is 8% (as some have speculated) plus anohter 2-3% due to terrorism/war and weather plus then we're looking at a 50% cut in 7 years.

Having talked to farmers and gardners, 7 years is not very long considering how much you have to learn.

So how can you say growing one's food is a waste of time unless we get a 50% cut when a 50% inside of 7-10 years is somewhere between possible and probable?

Don't get me wrong: what you said about growing ones food is all true. About a year ago I went out and purchased all the things I need to grow a couple of pumpkins here on the concrete slab in front of apartment which is located on a busy street. Then I realized I was fooling myself the two pumpkins I might be able to grow would A) not make a dent in my consumption and B) likely be stolen by the local thugs.  I ascertained would be better off working to make money to move to an area better suited for sustainability.

But, quite frankly, I was stunned to see you characertize it as a "waste of time" particulary given that we very well could be looking at a 50% cut within a relatively short period of time.

You could apply the same market valuation to formal education.

Of what use is this or that degree? Someone from India can/will pursue this research or knowledge more cheaply. Does that make the quest of less value to you? It shouldn't.

The Amish have an interesting belief about tools. It goes to the effect that a tool has two ends. The business end changes the task. The other changes the user. More broadly, the relationship to task is what builds community... the relationship to tool builds ego.

An immigrant will work your field more cheaply. But not an Amish-man's. How does that build your community? That is the real question. The money is going to be either inflated or deflated back to paper when TSHTF.

Keep your hands off my cabbages.

Most food production in the US revolves around a highly mechanized system almost completely reliant on cheap fossil fuel. While it is true that people paid virtually slave wages are charged with the harvesting of many fruits and vegetables, the vast majority of our protein and carbohydrates, i.e. most of our calories, come from wheat, corn, various livestock and fishstocks all of which are not at the mercy of immigrant labor, but which are all fossil fuel dependent.

While you may think that you will somehow magically be able to skip participation in the farm economy or somehow do without food, I kind of think that your special status as a special person will not pay off in special consideration of your special caloric needs.

By all means, ignore the actual physical structure of our farm economy and the clearly evident resulting dearth of calories should oil supply be compromised. I am sure that everyone in Chicago will be perfectly willing to share some of their food with you, even as you heap disdain upon them.

Why not a "Peak Garden"?

I can think of hundreds of reasons why to grow a garden.

and no reason not to.

The answer depends on the severity of PO, but you would have to believe in truly apocalyptic scenarios for the lower levels to be worth it. And even then, if things are already that bad, low-level specialisation won't make much of a difference anyway.

I believe that even in a severely bad PO scenario, we should aim for the highest levels of specialisation that we dare. There are huge efficiency gains to be had, and they are not to be dismissed lightly. If information continues to flow across borders, and even (dare we hope for fairer immigration laws than today?) people, then the education and knowledge we rich people have should be highly prized and used as the gift it is.

What you are describing is, in my book, gardening.  In fact, it's the best form of gardening: perenial gardening.  The most substantial and effective form of permaculture gardening is the food forest, a "garden" based on trees and other perenial crops, with annual crops interplanted in a polyculture.

I am personally focusing more on traditional annual garden crops, but that's only because, as a renter, it doesn't make sense for me to plant a garden that will take 5-10 years to bear.

In an ideal situation, I would own land where I could start making this investment in the future right now, in hopes that I would be in grave danger of falling food by the time PO hits.  But I have chosen to continue to develop my professional skills as a green buildling/renewable energy engineer, which means I have to live where the jobs are, which means I can't afford to buy.  So my current path is a best compromise.

I don't mean this as an insult or anything, I just want to know.