The Oil Drum | IEA Supply Creeping Up

146 comments on IEA Supply Creeping Up

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Freddy Hutter on July 27, 2006 - 3:18pm

Your 3% threshold would have declared a Peak in 1982 based on 1980 & 1981 declines. Again a Peak would have been declared in 1983 based on '81 & '82 declines. After that episode, the largest of the five next annual shortfalls was 1.06% in 1999.

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Darwinian on July 27, 2006 - 6:02pm

There have been many times in the past when the taps were shut down deliberatey, or becase of political reasons. There was Iranian revolution and the Iran-Iraq war that caused OPEC production to drop. Then there was the collapse of the Soviet Union. Then OPEC, in about 1999, cut back on production because of low oil prices.

But now every nation is producing flat out, except perhaps for Nigeria and a few barrels in Iraq. But the point is a drop in production right now would be caused almost entirely by depletion, not by political reasons.

That is the difference Freddy.

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146 comments on IEA Supply Creeping Up

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“If kindness and comfort are, as I suspect, the results of an energy surplus, then, as the supply contracts, we could be expected to start fighting once again like cats in a sack.”

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